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Israeli Premier League · Regular Season - 2 · Sat 29 Aug · 17:00 UTC

Hapoel Petah Tikva v Hapoel Katamon

FT 1–0
Israeli Premier League29 Aug 2026, 18:00updated 16:36 UTC
Most likely outcome

Hapoel Petah Tikva 53%

Betting decision
PASSNo suitable opportunity right now

WinPIQ does not see enough of an edge at the current price.

WinPIQ's call is PASS on Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Katamon. Hapoel Petah Tikva is the most likely result, but the price does not clear WinPIQ's bar.

WinPIQ probabilityWinPIQ's estimate of the chance this outcome happens, from 0–100%. It is not a promise: a 70% call still loses about 3 times in 10.
53%
Fair price (WinPIQ)The odds WinPIQ's own probability implies, with no bookmaker margin — the 'true' price before the house's cut.
1.88
Minimum priceThe lowest price at which this selection still has value — below it, the price no longer compensates for the risk.
2.12
ConfidenceHow sure WinPIQ is about this call, combining model agreement, data and lineup certainty — one label, not a score.
High confidence

Quick verdict

For
  • StrengthTeam strength supports this pick
  • OtherModel fair price 1.88 vs 2.55 in the market — the market prices this lower than the model.
Against

No material risks on record.

What could change the call?

No verified expert prediction was found for this match.

Squad readiness

Hapoel Petah TikvaSquad status unclearHow much of the team's usual starting lineup is expected to be available, in words rather than a raw number.
Official lineupHow the expected lineup was determined: official team news, or WinPIQ's own projection when the team hasn't confirmed yet. · updated 16:41 UTC

Full-strength squad expected.

Hapoel KatamonSquad status unclearHow much of the team's usual starting lineup is expected to be available, in words rather than a raw number.
Official lineupHow the expected lineup was determined: official team news, or WinPIQ's own projection when the team hasn't confirmed yet. · updated 07:09 UTC

Full-strength squad expected.

Market & price

No operator price is available right now

fair 1.88The odds WinPIQ's own probability implies, with no bookmaker margin — the 'true' price before the house's cut.acceptable from 2.12The lowest price at which this selection still has value — below it, the price no longer compensates for the risk.

Form

Hapoel Petah Tikva have underperformed once opponent strength is factored in.

Hapoel Katamon have underperformed once opponent strength is factored in.

What could change the call?

  • No verified expert prediction was found for this match.

Post-match summary

The result is never softened
HitAI predicted Hapoel Petah Tikva (53%) · result 1–0 · locked price 2.55
Market

Market vs AI

No operator price is available right now
SelectionAIMarket (no-vig)PriceFairEdge
153.3%——1.88—
X19.9%——5.02—
226.8%——3.73—

Decision state · WINPIQ PASS

engine pass_v1 · uncertainty medium · model agreement 100% · price freshness 0/100
Analysis expired
Price zone · Expired

Kickoff has passed; the pre-match analysis no longer applies

Pro unlocks

Price Passport — fair odds, minimum price, validity

Pro · ₪149 / month
Why Analysis expired? ↓
Pro unlocks

Full reasons for PASS / WATCH

Pro · ₪149 / month
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Price zones and decision states are model-generated decision support — not a guaranteed outcome. No countdowns: “valid until” is the next real price refresh.

Market coherence · same thesis, different market

All markets derive from one scoreline matrix · 6/6 consistency checks passed
Pro unlocks

Same thesis, different market — ranked by value and margin

Pro · ₪149 / month
Cross-market residuals and margin map (Edge) ↓
Edge unlocks

Full coherence engine — residuals and margin map

Edge · ₪279 / month

Disagreement between markets is “cross-market discrepancy — review”, not an opportunity. Margin shows embedded cost per market structure — never an instruction to stake more.

More markets

Goals and BTTS from the Dixon-Coles matrix; a market is published only with enough history
Pro unlocks

Goals, BTTS and double-chance markets.

Pro · ₪149 / month
Advanced
WinPIQ Score· 1X2
Hapoel Petah Tikva
53%
No opportunity right now
WinPIQ Score
74

No suitable opportunity in this match yet.

Probability ≠ confidence ≠ edge ≠ recommendation. Four different numbers, on purpose.

Probability
53%
Fair odds (AI)
1.88
Operator price
no price
Market (no-vig)
—
Edge
+18.1 pp
EV at the operator price
—
Confidence
77/100
Model agreement
3/3
Risk
High
Why 74? ↓
  • How clear the match is to the model19.3/25
  • How many of our analysts agree15/15
  • How much more than the odds we give it25/25
  • How many bookmakers price the match10/10
  • A price you can take right now0/5

The call (No opportunity right now) follows fixed rules on edge and confidence — not the score.

Fingerprint:published Sat 29 Aug · 16:36 UTCmodel mock_v0locks at 16:55 UTCMQ-000198.v2.v3
Model
53%
Edge
+18.1pp
Conviction
Low
Uncertainty
Medium

AI Committee

Four perspectives over the same stored evidence. Agents without data say so — nothing is invented.
committee_v1
Pro unlocks

1 of 4 perspectives raise a warning on this match

Pro · ₪149 / month
committee
2 positive · 0 neutral · 0 warning
final verdict
Hapoel Petah Tikva
conviction
Low
debate index
14/100
What could make us wrong?
  1. No material counter-argument in the stored evidence.
Why? → open the evidenceWhat does this mean? → ask the advisor

Why?

Each factor’s contribution in probability points relative to the pick
Pro unlocks

1 factors explain the call.

Pro · ₪149 / month

Risks

  • The picture is still forming — no call yet.

What could change the call?

  • No verified expert prediction was found for this match.

Probability distribution

Model probabilities (no bookmaker margin)
Draw Risk 0
Hapoel Petah Tikva
53.3%
Draw
19.9%
Hapoel Katamon
26.8%

The case · 1

balance -4
Case for
  • All 3 models agree
  • team strength (+2.4)
  • Starting XI confirmed
Case against

Nothing recorded.

What would change our mind
  • Two or more models switch away from the pick

Derived from stored factors, model votes, market movement and lineups — not written to persuade.

Team strength

WinPIQ Power Rating 0–100 (v0: normalised Elo; xG and opponent quality later)
Hapoel Petah Tikva
31.7
Elo 1459 · +1.4 in 30 days
Hapoel Katamon
21.1
Elo 1405 · −1.4 in 30 days

Recent form

Raw results + adjusted form: beating a strong side counts more than beating a weak one.
Hapoel Petah Tikvaadj. form −0.37
L 0–1D 2–2D 0–0D 1–1L 0–1
Hapoel Katamonadj. form −0.60
L 2–5L 0–2W 1–0L 0–1D 0–0
Proof & history

Prediction Proof

Locked before kickoff · append-only ledger · SHA-256
Id
MQ-000198.v2.v3
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 16:36 UTC
Locked
not yet
Model
mock_v0
Hash
0fbb7…1851
Version
v3 (previous: MQ-000198.v2)
Open the full proof and every version →

Prediction timeline

Every change is recorded; nothing is deleted. Version changes are explained from factor contributions.
  1. Sat 29 Aug · 03:13 UTCInitial model · 1 43%
  2. Sat 29 Aug · 03:26 UTCVersion 2 · 1 43% (+0.4pp) · IL1 odds loaded
    • −3.9 יציבות הגנתית
    • +2.8 כוח התקפי
    • +1.6 חוזק קבוצה (Elo)
    • +0.8 כושר אחרון (5 משחקים)
  3. Sat 29 Aug · 16:36 UTCVersion 3 · 1 53% (+10pp) · Model refresh
    • −2.4 כושר אחרון (5 משחקים)
    • −2.1 יתרון ביתיות
    • −0.7 יציבות הגנתית
    • −0.7 ימי מנוחה