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Ligue 1 · MD2 · Sat 29 Aug · 18:45 UTC

Auxerre v Angers

FT 1–3
Ligue 129 Aug 2026, 19:45updated 18:15 UTC
Most likely outcome

Auxerre 52%

Betting decision
PASSNo suitable opportunity right now

WinPIQ does not see enough of an edge at the current price.

WinPIQ's call is PASS on Auxerre vs Angers. Auxerre is the most likely result, but the price does not clear WinPIQ's bar.

WinPIQ probabilityWinPIQ's estimate of the chance this outcome happens, from 0–100%. It is not a promise: a 70% call still loses about 3 times in 10.
52%
Fair price (WinPIQ)The odds WinPIQ's own probability implies, with no bookmaker margin — the 'true' price before the house's cut.
1.94
Minimum priceThe lowest price at which this selection still has value — below it, the price no longer compensates for the risk.
2.14
ConfidenceHow sure WinPIQ is about this call, combining model agreement, data and lineup certainty — one label, not a score.
High confidence

Quick verdict

For
  • FormRecent form supports this pick
  • StrengthTeam strength supports this pick
  • StrengthAttacking strength supports this pick
Against
  • OtherAuxerre are missing 23 players
  • Other1 doubtful player(s) on Auxerre's side — the XI is not settled
What could change the call?

No verified expert prediction was found for this match.

Squad readiness

AuxerreSquad status unclearHow much of the team's usual starting lineup is expected to be available, in words rather than a raw number.
Official lineupHow the expected lineup was determined: official team news, or WinPIQ's own projection when the team hasn't confirmed yet. · updated 09:07 UTC

Doubtful: R. Faivre

1 doubtful

AngersSquad status unclearHow much of the team's usual starting lineup is expected to be available, in words rather than a raw number.
Official lineupHow the expected lineup was determined: official team news, or WinPIQ's own projection when the team hasn't confirmed yet. · updated 09:06 UTC

Full-strength squad expected.

Market & price

No operator price is available right now

fair 1.94The odds WinPIQ's own probability implies, with no bookmaker margin — the 'true' price before the house's cut.acceptable from 2.14The lowest price at which this selection still has value — below it, the price no longer compensates for the risk.

Form

Auxerre have been in strong form once opponent strength is factored in.

Angers have underperformed once opponent strength is factored in.

What could change the call?

  • No verified expert prediction was found for this match.

Post-match summary

The result is never softened
MissAI predicted Auxerre (52%) · result 1–3 · locked price 2.12
Market

Market vs AI

No operator price is available right now
SelectionAIMarket (no-vig)PriceFairEdge
151.5%——1.94—
X28.3%——3.54—
220.2%——4.95—

Decision state · WINPIQ PASS

engine pass_v1 · uncertainty low · model agreement 100% · price freshness 0/100
Analysis expired
Price zone · Expired

Kickoff has passed; the pre-match analysis no longer applies

Pro unlocks

Price Passport — fair odds, minimum price, validity

Pro · ₪149 / month
Why Analysis expired? ↓
Pro unlocks

Full reasons for PASS / WATCH

Pro · ₪149 / month
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Price zones and decision states are model-generated decision support — not a guaranteed outcome. No countdowns: “valid until” is the next real price refresh.

Market coherence · same thesis, different market

All markets derive from one scoreline matrix · 10/10 consistency checks passed
Pro unlocks

Same thesis, different market — ranked by value and margin

Pro · ₪149 / month
Cross-market residuals and margin map (Edge) ↓
Edge unlocks

Full coherence engine — residuals and margin map

Edge · ₪279 / month

Disagreement between markets is “cross-market discrepancy — review”, not an opportunity. Margin shows embedded cost per market structure — never an instruction to stake more.

More markets

Goals and BTTS from the Dixon-Coles matrix; a market is published only with enough history
Pro unlocks

Goals, BTTS and double-chance markets.

Pro · ₪149 / month
Advanced
WinPIQ Score· 1X2
Auxerre
52%
Positive signal
WinPIQ Score
68

The model puts home win at 52%, 6.5 points above the market.

Probability ≠ confidence ≠ edge ≠ recommendation. Four different numbers, on purpose.

Probability
52%
Fair odds (AI)
1.94
Operator price
no price
Market (no-vig)
—
Edge
+6.5 pp
EV at the operator price
—
Confidence
87/100
Model agreement
4/4
Risk
Medium
Why 68? ↓
  • How clear the match is to the model21.8/25
  • How many of our analysts agree15/15
  • How much more than the odds we give it10.9/25
  • How many bookmakers price the match10/10
  • A price you can take right now0/5

The call (Positive signal) follows fixed rules on edge and confidence — not the score.

Fingerprint:published Sat 29 Aug · 18:15 UTCmodel ens_v0.1locks at 18:40 UTCMQ-000112.v2.v3.v4.v5
Model
52%
Edge
+6.5pp
Conviction
Low
Uncertainty
Medium

AI Committee

Four perspectives over the same stored evidence. Agents without data say so — nothing is invented.
committee_v1
Pro unlocks

2 of 4 perspectives raise a warning on this match

Pro · ₪149 / month
committee
1 positive · 0 neutral · 1 warning
final verdict
Auxerre
conviction
Low
debate index
65/100
What could make us wrong?
  1. 1. Auxerre are missing 23 players HIGH
  2. 2. 1 doubtful player(s) on Auxerre's side — the XI is not settled MEDIUM
  3. 3. Draw risk 59/100 — a tight match script MEDIUM
Why? → open the evidenceWhat does this mean? → ask the advisor

Why?

Each factor’s contribution in probability points relative to the pick
Pro unlocks

6 factors explain the call.

Pro · ₪149 / month

Risks

  • The picture is still forming — no call yet.

What could change the call?

  • No verified expert prediction was found for this match.

Probability distribution

Model probabilities (no bookmaker margin)
Draw Risk 59
Auxerre
51.5%
Draw
28.3%
Angers
20.2%

The case · 1

balance +25
What am I missing?

Auxerre are missing 23 players

Case for
  • recent form (+5.6)
  • team strength (+4.2)
  • attack (+3.7)
  • All 4 models agree
  • Starting XI confirmed
Case against
  • Auxerre are missing 23 players
  • 1 doubtful player(s) on Auxerre's side — the XI is not settled
  • Draw risk 59
What would change our mind
  • Two or more models switch away from the pick

Derived from stored factors, model votes, market movement and lineups — not written to persuade.

Team strength

WinPIQ Power Rating 0–100 (v0: normalised Elo; xG and opponent quality later)
Auxerre
31.7
Elo 1458 · −4.0 in 30 days
Angers
26.2
Elo 1431 · +4.0 in 30 days

Recent form

Raw results + adjusted form: beating a strong side counts more than beating a weak one.
Auxerreadj. form +0.71
L 2–5W 2–0W 2–1W 3–1L 2–3
Angersadj. form −0.66
L 0–2L 0–2D 1–1D 1–1L 1–3
Proof & history

Prediction Proof

Locked before kickoff · append-only ledger · SHA-256
Id
MQ-000112.v2.v3.v4.v5
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 18:15 UTC
Locked
not yet
Model
ens_v0.1
Hash
b219e…cbe7
Version
v5 (previous: MQ-000112.v2.v3.v4)
Open the full proof and every version →

Prediction timeline

Every change is recorded; nothing is deleted. Version changes are explained from factor contributions.
  1. Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTCInitial model · 1 51%
  2. Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTCVersion 2 · 1 52% (+0pp) · Market prices added
    • +4.7 חוזק קבוצה (Elo)
    • +3.2 כושר אחרון (5 משחקים)
    • +2.7 כושר מותאם (מול ציפייה)
    • +2.4 כוח התקפי
  3. Sat 29 Aug · 15:38 UTCVersion 3 · 1 52% (+0pp) · Market price update
  4. Sat 29 Aug · 16:36 UTCVersion 4 · 1 59% (+7.6pp) · Model refresh
    • −5.6 כושר אחרון (5 משחקים)
    • −3.7 כוח התקפי
    • −2.7 כושר מותאם (מול ציפייה)
    • −2.0 יתרון ביתיות
  5. Sat 29 Aug · 18:15 UTCVersion 5 · 1 52% (−7.6pp) · Model refresh
    • +5.6 כושר אחרון (5 משחקים)
    • +3.7 כוח התקפי
    • +2.7 כושר מותאם (מול ציפייה)
    • +2.0 יתרון ביתיות