Cagliari v 
Inter
Inter 59%
WinPIQ does not see enough of an edge at the current price.
WinPIQ's call is PASS on Cagliari vs Inter. Inter is the most likely result, but the price does not clear WinPIQ's bar.
- WinPIQ probabilityWinPIQ's estimate of the chance this outcome happens, from 0–100%. It is not a promise: a 70% call still loses about 3 times in 10.
- 59%
- Fair price (WinPIQ)The odds WinPIQ's own probability implies, with no bookmaker margin — the 'true' price before the house's cut.
- 1.69
- Minimum priceThe lowest price at which this selection still has value — below it, the price no longer compensates for the risk.
- 1.85
- ConfidenceHow sure WinPIQ is about this call, combining model agreement, data and lineup certainty — one label, not a score.
- High confidence
Quick verdict
- StrengthTeam strength supports this pick
- StrengthAttacking strength supports this pick
- FormRecent form supports this pick
- OtherInter are missing 6 players
- FormRecent form works against this pick
Lock expected in about 10 hours.
Market & price
No operator price is available right now
fair 1.69The odds WinPIQ's own probability implies, with no bookmaker margin — the 'true' price before the house's cut.acceptable from 1.85The lowest price at which this selection still has value — below it, the price no longer compensates for the risk.
Form
Cagliari have been in strong form once opponent strength is factored in.
Inter's form has been about average once opponent strength is factored in.
What could change the call?
- Lock expected in about 10 hours.
- Official lineups are not out yet — a material change triggers a recalculation.
Decision receipt · Cagliari v Inter
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Market
Market vs AI
| Selection | AI | Market (no-vig) | Price | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13.9% | — | — | 7.18 | — |
| X | 27.0% | — | — | 3.70 | — |
| 2 | 59.0% | — | — | 1.69 | — |
Decision state · WINPIQ PASS
No valid market price yet — a prediction without a price is incomplete
Why Wait for the market? ↓
Price zones and decision states are model-generated decision support — not a guaranteed outcome. No countdowns: “valid until” is the next real price refresh.
Market coherence · same thesis, different market
Cross-market residuals and margin map (Edge) ↓
Disagreement between markets is “cross-market discrepancy — review”, not an opportunity. Margin shows embedded cost per market structure — never an instruction to stake more.
More markets
Advanced
The model rates Inter at 59% — below the market price. Better to avoid.
Probability ≠ confidence ≠ edge ≠ recommendation. Four different numbers, on purpose.
- Probability
- 59%
- Fair odds (AI)
- 1.69
- Operator price
- no price
- Market (no-vig)
- —
- Edge
- -7.9 pp
- EV at the operator price
- —
- Confidence
- 87/100
- Model agreement
- 4/4
- Risk
- High
Why 57? ↓
- How clear the match is to the model21.8/25
- How many of our analysts agree15/15
- How much more than the odds we give it0/25
- How many bookmakers price the match10/10
- A price you can take right now0/5
The call (Avoid) follows fixed rules on edge and confidence — not the score.
- Model
- 59%
- Edge
- −7.9pp
- Conviction
- Low
- Uncertainty
- Low
AI Committee
- 1. Inter are missing 6 players HIGH
Why?
Risks
- Adjusted form (vs expectation): −2.8
- Home advantage: −1.0
- The picture is still forming — no call yet.
What could change the call?
- Lock expected in about 10 hours.
- Official lineups are not out yet — a material change triggers a recalculation.
- No verified expert prediction was found for this match.
Probability distribution
The case · 2
balance +44Inter are missing 6 players
- team strength (+13.2)
- attack (+9.5)
- recent form (+5.6)
- All 4 models agree
- Inter are missing 6 players
- adjusted form (-2.8)
- Starting XI not confirmed — the model assumes an expected lineup
- home advantage (-1.0)
- A key player is missing from the confirmed XI
- Two or more models switch away from the pick
Derived from stored factors, model votes, market movement and lineups — not written to persuade.
Team strength
Recent form
Proof & history
Prediction Proof
- Id
- MQ-000161.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10
- Published
- Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC
- Locked
- not yet
- Model
- ens_v0.1
- Hash
- 932e0…202b
- Version
- v10 (previous: MQ-000161.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9)
Prediction timeline
- Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTCInitial model · 2 59%
- Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTCVersion 2 · 2 59% (+0pp) · Market prices added
- Sat 29 Aug · 16:36 UTCVersion 3 · 2 67% (+8.3pp) · Model refresh
- −26.4 חוזק קבוצה (Elo)
- −9.7 כוח התקפי
- −5.6 כושר אחרון (5 משחקים)
- +2.8 כושר מותאם (מול ציפייה)
- Sat 29 Aug · 18:15 UTCVersion 4 · 2 59% (−8.3pp) · Model refresh
- +26.4 חוזק קבוצה (Elo)
- +9.6 כוח התקפי
- +5.6 כושר אחרון (5 משחקים)
- −2.8 כושר מותאם (מול ציפייה)
- Sat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTCVersion 5 · 2 67% (+8.4pp) · Model refresh
- −26.4 חוזק קבוצה (Elo)
- −9.6 כוח התקפי
- −5.6 כושר אחרון (5 משחקים)
- +2.8 כושר מותאם (מול ציפייה)
- Sat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTCVersion 6 · 2 59% (−8.4pp) · Model refresh
- +26.4 חוזק קבוצה (Elo)
- +9.5 כוח התקפי
- +5.6 כושר אחרון (5 משחקים)
- −2.8 כושר מותאם (מול ציפייה)
- Sat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTCVersion 7 · 2 67% (+8.3pp) · Model refresh
- −26.4 חוזק קבוצה (Elo)
- −9.5 כוח התקפי
- −5.6 כושר אחרון (5 משחקים)
- +2.8 כושר מותאם (מול ציפייה)
- Sun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTCVersion 8 · 2 59% (−8.3pp) · Model refresh
- +26.4 חוזק קבוצה (Elo)
- +9.5 כוח התקפי
- +5.6 כושר אחרון (5 משחקים)
- −2.8 כושר מותאם (מול ציפייה)
- Sun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTCVersion 9 · 2 67% (+8.3pp) · Model refresh
- −26.4 חוזק קבוצה (Elo)
- −9.5 כוח התקפי
- −5.6 כושר אחרון (5 משחקים)
- +2.8 כושר מותאם (מול ציפייה)
- Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTCVersion 10 · 2 59% (−8.3pp) · Model refresh
- +26.4 חוזק קבוצה (Elo)
- +9.5 כוח התקפי
- +5.6 כושר אחרון (5 משחקים)
- −2.8 כושר מותאם (מול ציפייה)
Experts & community
AI · Market · Community
Cagliari v Inter: expert predictions enter only from licensed sources and only when explicit.
Community
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