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Serie A · MD2 · Sat 29 Aug · 16:30 UTC

Fiorentina v Frosinone

FT 0–3
Serie A29 Aug 2026, 17:30updated 08:56 UTC
Most likely outcome

Fiorentina 40%

Betting decision
PASSNo suitable opportunity right now

WinPIQ does not see enough of an edge at the current price.

WinPIQ's call is PASS on Fiorentina vs Frosinone. Fiorentina is the most likely result, but the price does not clear WinPIQ's bar.

WinPIQ probabilityWinPIQ's estimate of the chance this outcome happens, from 0–100%. It is not a promise: a 70% call still loses about 3 times in 10.
40%
Fair price (WinPIQ)The odds WinPIQ's own probability implies, with no bookmaker margin — the 'true' price before the house's cut.
2.48
Minimum priceThe lowest price at which this selection still has value — below it, the price no longer compensates for the risk.
2.98
ConfidenceHow sure WinPIQ is about this call, combining model agreement, data and lineup certainty — one label, not a score.
Medium confidence

Quick verdict

For
  • Home/AwayHome advantage supports this pick
  • OtherModel fair price 2.48 vs 1.62 in the market — the market is more optimistic than the model.
  • StrengthAttacking strength supports this pick
Against
  • FormRecent form works against this pick
  • StrengthDefensive stability works against this pick
What could change the call?

No verified expert prediction was found for this match.

Squad readiness

FiorentinaSquad status unclearHow much of the team's usual starting lineup is expected to be available, in words rather than a raw number.
Official lineupHow the expected lineup was determined: official team news, or WinPIQ's own projection when the team hasn't confirmed yet. · updated 09:13 UTC

Full-strength squad expected.

FrosinoneSquad status unclearHow much of the team's usual starting lineup is expected to be available, in words rather than a raw number.
Official lineupHow the expected lineup was determined: official team news, or WinPIQ's own projection when the team hasn't confirmed yet. · updated 09:12 UTC

Full-strength squad expected.

Market & price

No operator price is available right now

fair 2.48The odds WinPIQ's own probability implies, with no bookmaker margin — the 'true' price before the house's cut.acceptable from 2.98The lowest price at which this selection still has value — below it, the price no longer compensates for the risk.

Form

Fiorentina's form has been about average once opponent strength is factored in.

What could change the call?

  • No verified expert prediction was found for this match.

Post-match summary

The result is never softened
MissAI predicted Fiorentina (40%) · result 0–3 · locked price 1.62
Market

Market vs AI

No operator price is available right now
SelectionAIMarket (no-vig)PriceFairEdge
140.4%——2.48—
X33.3%——3.00—
226.3%——3.81—

Decision state · WINPIQ PASS

engine pass_v1 · uncertainty medium · model agreement 100% · price freshness 0/100
Analysis expired
Price zone · Expired

Kickoff has passed; the pre-match analysis no longer applies

Pro unlocks

Price Passport — fair odds, minimum price, validity

Pro · ₪149 / month
Why Analysis expired? ↓
Pro unlocks

Full reasons for PASS / WATCH

Pro · ₪149 / month
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Price zones and decision states are model-generated decision support — not a guaranteed outcome. No countdowns: “valid until” is the next real price refresh.

Market coherence · same thesis, different market

All markets derive from one scoreline matrix · 10/10 consistency checks passed
Pro unlocks

Same thesis, different market — ranked by value and margin

Pro · ₪149 / month
Cross-market residuals and margin map (Edge) ↓
Edge unlocks

Full coherence engine — residuals and margin map

Edge · ₪279 / month

Disagreement between markets is “cross-market discrepancy — review”, not an opportunity. Margin shows embedded cost per market structure — never an instruction to stake more.

More markets

Goals and BTTS from the Dixon-Coles matrix; a market is published only with enough history
Pro unlocks

Goals, BTTS and double-chance markets.

Pro · ₪149 / month
Advanced
WinPIQ Score· 1X2
Fiorentina
40%
No opportunity right now
WinPIQ Score
45

No suitable opportunity in this match yet.

Probability ≠ confidence ≠ edge ≠ recommendation. Four different numbers, on purpose.

Probability
40%
Fair odds (AI)
2.48
Operator price
no price
Market (no-vig)
—
Edge
-18.2 pp
EV at the operator price
—
Confidence
66/100
Model agreement
4/4
Risk
High
Why 45? ↓
  • How clear the match is to the model16.5/25
  • How many of our analysts agree15/15
  • How much more than the odds we give it0/25
  • How many bookmakers price the match10/10
  • A price you can take right now0/5

The call (No opportunity right now) follows fixed rules on edge and confidence — not the score.

Fingerprint:published Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTCmodel ens_v0.1locks at 16:25 UTCMQ-000086.v2
Model
40%
Edge
−18.2pp
Conviction
Low
Uncertainty
High

AI Committee

Four perspectives over the same stored evidence. Agents without data say so — nothing is invented.
committee_v1
Pro unlocks

2 of 4 perspectives raise a warning on this match

Pro · ₪149 / month
committee
1 positive · 0 neutral · 1 warning
final verdict
Fiorentina
conviction
Low
debate index
79/100
What could make us wrong?
  1. 1. Fiorentina are missing 6 players HIGH
  2. 2. Draw risk 74/100 — a tight match script HIGH
  3. 3. Top two outcomes are only 7pp apart MEDIUM
Why? → open the evidenceWhat does this mean? → ask the advisor

Why?

Each factor’s contribution in probability points relative to the pick
Pro unlocks

5 factors explain the call.

Pro · ₪149 / month

Risks

  • Recent form (5 matches): −4.0
  • Defensive stability: −1.3
  • Rest days: −0.7
  • The picture is still forming — no call yet.

What could change the call?

  • No verified expert prediction was found for this match.

Probability distribution

Model probabilities (no bookmaker margin)
Draw Risk 74
Fiorentina
40.4%
Draw
33.3%
Frosinone
26.3%

The case · 1

balance -57
What am I missing?

recent form (-4.0)

Case for
  • All 4 models agree
  • Starting XI confirmed
  • home advantage (+1.0)
  • attack (+0.6)
Case against
  • recent form (-4.0)
  • Fiorentina are missing 6 players
  • Draw risk 74/100 — a tight match script
What would change our mind
  • Two or more models switch away from the pick

Derived from stored factors, model votes, market movement and lineups — not written to persuade.

Team strength

WinPIQ Power Rating 0–100 (v0: normalised Elo; xG and opponent quality later)
Fiorentina
35.7
Elo 1479 · −3.9 in 30 days
Frosinone
42.2
Elo 1511 · +3.8 in 30 days

Recent form

Raw results + adjusted form: beating a strong side counts more than beating a weak one.
Fiorentinaadj. form −0.05
L 0–4D 1–1W 2–0D 0–0L 0–4
Frosinone
L 0–1
Proof & history

Prediction Proof

Locked before kickoff · append-only ledger · SHA-256
Id
MQ-000086.v2
Published
Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC
Locked
not yet
Model
ens_v0.1
Hash
48b42…c47f
Version
v2 (previous: MQ-000086)
Open the full proof and every version →

Prediction timeline

Every change is recorded; nothing is deleted. Version changes are explained from factor contributions.
  1. Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTCInitial model · 1 40%
  2. Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTCVersion 2 · 1 40% (+0pp) · Market prices added