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Bundesliga · MD1 · Sun 30 Aug · 13:30 UTC

Freiburg v Werder Bremen

Bundesliga30 Aug 2026, 14:30updated 05:54 UTC
Most likely outcome

Freiburg 51%

Betting decision
PASSNo suitable opportunity right now

WinPIQ does not see enough of an edge at the current price.

WinPIQ's call is PASS on Freiburg vs Werder Bremen. Freiburg is the most likely result, but the price does not clear WinPIQ's bar.

WinPIQ probabilityWinPIQ's estimate of the chance this outcome happens, from 0–100%. It is not a promise: a 70% call still loses about 3 times in 10.
51%
Fair price (WinPIQ)The odds WinPIQ's own probability implies, with no bookmaker margin — the 'true' price before the house's cut.
1.96
Minimum priceThe lowest price at which this selection still has value — below it, the price no longer compensates for the risk.
2.17
ConfidenceHow sure WinPIQ is about this call, combining model agreement, data and lineup certainty — one label, not a score.
High confidence

Quick verdict

For
  • StrengthTeam strength supports this pick
  • StrengthAttacking strength supports this pick
  • FormRecent form supports this pick
Against
  • OtherFreiburg are missing 4 players
  • Other2 doubtful player(s) on Freiburg's side — the XI is not settled
What could change the call?

Lock expected in about 4 hours.

Market & price

No operator price is available right now

fair 1.96The odds WinPIQ's own probability implies, with no bookmaker margin — the 'true' price before the house's cut.acceptable from 2.17The lowest price at which this selection still has value — below it, the price no longer compensates for the risk.

Form

Freiburg's form has been about average once opponent strength is factored in.

Werder Bremen have underperformed once opponent strength is factored in.

What could change the call?

  • Lock expected in about 4 hours.
  • Official lineups are not out yet — a material change triggers a recalculation.
UpdateWinPIQ's call on this match changed recently.· 05:54 UTC

Decision receipt · Freiburg v Werder Bremen

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Market

Market vs AI

No operator price is available right now
SelectionAIMarket (no-vig)PriceFairEdge
151.1%——1.96—
X28.0%——3.57—
220.8%——4.80—

Decision state · WINPIQ PASS

engine pass_v1 · uncertainty medium · model agreement 100% · price freshness 0/100
Wait for the market
Price zone · Information event ahead

No valid market price yet — a prediction without a price is incomplete

Pro unlocks

Price Passport — fair odds, minimum price, validity

Pro · ₪149 / month
Why Wait for the market? ↓
Pro unlocks

Full reasons for PASS / WATCH

Pro · ₪149 / month
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Price zones and decision states are model-generated decision support — not a guaranteed outcome. No countdowns: “valid until” is the next real price refresh.

Market coherence · same thesis, different market

All markets derive from one scoreline matrix · 10/10 consistency checks passed
Pro unlocks

Same thesis, different market — ranked by value and margin

Pro · ₪149 / month
Cross-market residuals and margin map (Edge) ↓
Edge unlocks

Full coherence engine — residuals and margin map

Edge · ₪279 / month

Disagreement between markets is “cross-market discrepancy — review”, not an opportunity. Margin shows embedded cost per market structure — never an instruction to stake more.

More markets

Goals and BTTS from the Dixon-Coles matrix; a market is published only with enough history
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Goals, BTTS and double-chance markets.

Pro · ₪149 / month
Advanced
WinPIQ Score· 1X2
Freiburg
51%
No edge
WinPIQ Score
59

We found no real edge in this match.

Probability ≠ confidence ≠ edge ≠ recommendation. Four different numbers, on purpose.

Probability
51%
Fair odds (AI)
1.96
Operator price
no price
Market (no-vig)
—
Edge
+1.5 pp
EV at the operator price
—
Confidence
84/100
Model agreement
4/4
Risk
Medium
Why 59? ↓
  • How clear the match is to the model21/25
  • How many of our analysts agree15/15
  • How much more than the odds we give it2.5/25
  • How many bookmakers price the match10/10
  • A price you can take right now0/5

The call (No edge) follows fixed rules on edge and confidence — not the score.

Fingerprint:published Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTCmodel ens_v0.1locks at 13:25 UTCMQ-000137.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11
Model
51%
Edge
+1.5pp
Conviction
Low
Uncertainty
Medium

AI Committee

Four perspectives over the same stored evidence. Agents without data say so — nothing is invented.
committee_v1
Pro unlocks

2 of 4 perspectives raise a warning on this match

Pro · ₪149 / month
committee
1 positive · 0 neutral · 1 warning
final verdict
Freiburg
conviction
Low
debate index
58/100
What could make us wrong?
  1. 1. Freiburg are missing 4 players HIGH
  2. 2. 2 doubtful player(s) on Freiburg's side — the XI is not settled MEDIUM
Why? → open the evidenceWhat does this mean? → ask the advisor

Why?

Each factor’s contribution in probability points relative to the pick
Pro unlocks

5 factors explain the call.

Pro · ₪149 / month

Risks

  • The picture is still forming — no call yet.

What could change the call?

  • Lock expected in about 4 hours.
  • Official lineups are not out yet — a material change triggers a recalculation.
  • No verified expert prediction was found for this match.

Probability distribution

Model probabilities (no bookmaker margin)
Draw Risk 43
Freiburg
51.1%
Draw
28.0%
Werder Bremen
20.8%

The case · 1

balance -1
What am I missing?

Freiburg are missing 4 players

Case for
  • team strength (+4.1)
  • All 4 models agree
  • attack (+2.1)
  • recent form (+1.6)
Case against
  • Freiburg are missing 4 players
  • 2 doubtful player(s) on Freiburg's side — the XI is not settled
  • Starting XI not confirmed — the model assumes an expected lineup
What would change our mind
  • A key player is missing from the confirmed XI
  • Two or more models switch away from the pick

Derived from stored factors, model votes, market movement and lineups — not written to persuade.

Team strength

WinPIQ Power Rating 0–100 (v0: normalised Elo; xG and opponent quality later)
Freiburg
41.1
Elo 1506 · −0.4 in 30 days
Werder Bremen
28.0
Elo 1440 · +4.0 in 30 days

Recent form

Raw results + adjusted form: beating a strong side counts more than beating a weak one.
Freiburgadj. form +0.01
W 4–1L 2–3D 1–1L 0–4W 2–1
Werder Bremenadj. form −0.36
L 0–2L 0–1L 1–3D 1–1W 3–1
Proof & history

Prediction Proof

Locked before kickoff · append-only ledger · SHA-256
Id
MQ-000137.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC
Locked
not yet
Model
ens_v0.1
Hash
dcfc3…4bde
Version
v11 (previous: MQ-000137.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10)
Open the full proof and every version →

Prediction timeline

Every change is recorded; nothing is deleted. Version changes are explained from factor contributions.
  1. Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTCInitial model · 1 48%
  2. Fri 28 Aug · 08:46 UTCVersion 2 · 1 51% (+3.3pp) · Team history linked
    • +5.0 חוזק קבוצה (Elo)
    • +2.7 כוח התקפי
    • +1.6 כושר אחרון (5 משחקים)
    • +0.7 כושר מותאם (מול ציפייה)
  3. Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTCVersion 3 · 1 51% (+0pp) · Market prices added
  4. Sat 29 Aug · 16:36 UTCVersion 4 · 1 55% (+3.5pp) · Model refresh
    • −2.2 כוח התקפי
    • −1.6 כושר אחרון (5 משחקים)
    • −1.4 חוזק קבוצה (Elo)
    • −1.3 יתרון ביתיות
  5. Sat 29 Aug · 18:15 UTCVersion 5 · 1 51% (−3.9pp) · Model refresh
    • +2.2 כוח התקפי
    • +1.6 כושר אחרון (5 משחקים)
    • +1.3 יתרון ביתיות
    • +0.7 כושר מותאם (מול ציפייה)
  6. Sat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTCVersion 6 · 1 55% (+4.1pp) · Model refresh
    • −2.2 כוח התקפי
    • −1.6 כושר אחרון (5 משחקים)
    • −1.3 יתרון ביתיות
    • −0.7 כושר מותאם (מול ציפייה)
  7. Sat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTCVersion 7 · 1 51% (−4.1pp) · Model refresh
    • +2.1 כוח התקפי
    • +1.6 כושר אחרון (5 משחקים)
    • +1.3 יתרון ביתיות
    • +0.7 כושר מותאם (מול ציפייה)
  8. Sat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTCVersion 8 · 1 55% (+4.1pp) · Model refresh
    • −2.1 כוח התקפי
    • −1.6 כושר אחרון (5 משחקים)
    • −1.3 יתרון ביתיות
    • −0.7 כושר מותאם (מול ציפייה)
  9. Sun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTCVersion 9 · 1 51% (−4.1pp) · Model refresh
    • +2.1 כוח התקפי
    • +1.6 כושר אחרון (5 משחקים)
    • +1.3 יתרון ביתיות
    • +0.7 כושר מותאם (מול ציפייה)
  10. Sun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTCVersion 10 · 1 55% (+4.1pp) · Model refresh
    • −2.1 כוח התקפי
    • −1.6 כושר אחרון (5 משחקים)
    • −1.3 יתרון ביתיות
    • −0.7 כושר מותאם (מול ציפייה)
  11. Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTCVersion 11 · 1 51% (−4.1pp) · Model refresh
    • +2.1 כוח התקפי
    • +1.6 כושר אחרון (5 משחקים)
    • +1.3 יתרון ביתיות
    • +0.7 כושר מותאם (מול ציפייה)

What changed?

v10 → v11 · Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC · Model refresh
Pick probability
55% → 51% -4.1 pp
Decision state
PASS — no suitable opportunity → Pass — no meaningful edge
  • Attacking strength+2.1
  • Recent form (5 matches)+1.6
  • Home advantage+1.3
  • Adjusted form (vs expectation)+0.7

Changes derive from the factor contributions stored in both versions — not generated text. Lineups and injuries join when a provider exists.

Experts & community

AI · Market · Community

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WinPIQ AI
1
51%
Market
—
—
Community
—
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Freiburg v Werder Bremen: expert predictions enter only from licensed sources and only when explicit.

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