Levante v 
Betis
Betis 46%
WinPIQ does not see enough of an edge at the current price.
WinPIQ's call is PASS on Levante vs Betis. Betis is the most likely result, but the price does not clear WinPIQ's bar.
- WinPIQ probabilityWinPIQ's estimate of the chance this outcome happens, from 0–100%. It is not a promise: a 70% call still loses about 3 times in 10.
- 46%
- Fair price (WinPIQ)The odds WinPIQ's own probability implies, with no bookmaker margin — the 'true' price before the house's cut.
- 2.18
- Minimum priceThe lowest price at which this selection still has value — below it, the price no longer compensates for the risk.
- 2.45
- ConfidenceHow sure WinPIQ is about this call, combining model agreement, data and lineup certainty — one label, not a score.
- High confidence
Quick verdict
- StrengthTeam strength supports this pick
- StrengthAttacking strength supports this pick
- FormRecent form supports this pick
- Home/AwayHome advantage works against this pick
- OtherBetis are missing 14 players
The prediction is locked. A new version is published separately if material information arrives.
Market & price
No operator price is available right now
fair 2.18The odds WinPIQ's own probability implies, with no bookmaker margin — the 'true' price before the house's cut.acceptable from 2.45The lowest price at which this selection still has value — below it, the price no longer compensates for the risk.
Form
Levante's form has been about average once opponent strength is factored in.
Betis have been in strong form once opponent strength is factored in.
What could change the call?
- The prediction is locked. A new version is published separately if material information arrives.
- No verified expert prediction was found for this match.
Post-match summary
Market
Market vs AI
| Selection | AI | Market (no-vig) | Price | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27.3% | — | — | 3.66 | — |
| X | 26.8% | — | — | 3.73 | — |
| 2 | 45.9% | — | — | 2.18 | — |
Decision state · WINPIQ PASS
Kickoff has passed; the pre-match analysis no longer applies
Why Analysis expired? ↓
Price zones and decision states are model-generated decision support — not a guaranteed outcome. No countdowns: “valid until” is the next real price refresh.
Market coherence · same thesis, different market
Cross-market residuals and margin map (Edge) ↓
Disagreement between markets is “cross-market discrepancy — review”, not an opportunity. Margin shows embedded cost per market structure — never an instruction to stake more.
More markets
Advanced
The model puts away win at 46%, 2.4 points above the market.
Probability ≠ confidence ≠ edge ≠ recommendation. Four different numbers, on purpose.
- Probability
- 46%
- Fair odds (AI)
- 2.18
- Operator price
- no price
- Market (no-vig)
- —
- Edge
- +2.4 pp
- EV at the operator price
- —
- Confidence
- 82/100
- Model agreement
- 4/4
- Risk
- Medium
Why 60? ↓
- How clear the match is to the model20.5/25
- How many of our analysts agree15/15
- How much more than the odds we give it4/25
- How many bookmakers price the match10/10
- A price you can take right now0/5
The call (Small edge) follows fixed rules on edge and confidence — not the score.
- Model
- 46%
- Edge
- +2.4pp
- Conviction
- Low
- Uncertainty
- Medium
AI Committee
- 1. Betis are missing 14 players HIGH
- 2. 1 doubtful player(s) on Betis's side — the XI is not settled MEDIUM
- 3. Kick-off within 3h and no lineup information MEDIUM
Why?
Risks
- Home advantage: −2.4
- Rest days: −0.7
- The picture is still forming — no call yet.
What could change the call?
- The prediction is locked. A new version is published separately if material information arrives.
- No verified expert prediction was found for this match.
Probability distribution
The case · 2
balance -7Starting XI not confirmed — the model assumes an expected lineup
- team strength (+6.1)
- All 4 models agree
- attack (+2.4)
- recent form (+2.4)
- Starting XI not confirmed — the model assumes an expected lineup
- Betis are missing 14 players
- 1 doubtful player(s) on Betis's side — the XI is not settled
- Kick-off within 3h and no lineup information
- home advantage (-2.4)
- A key player is missing from the confirmed XI
- Two or more models switch away from the pick
Derived from stored factors, model votes, market movement and lineups — not written to persuade.
Team strength
Recent form
Proof & history
Prediction Proof
- Id
- MQ-000071.v2
- Published
- Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC
- Locked
- 14:57 UTC
- Model
- ens_v0.1
- Hash
- 12353…b06d
- Version
- v2 (previous: MQ-000071)
Prediction timeline
- Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTCInitial model · 2 46%
- Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTCVersion 2 · 2 46% (+0pp) · Market prices added
- Sat 29 Aug · 14:57 UTCLock · v1
- Sat 29 Aug · 14:57 UTCLock · v2
What changed?
Changes derive from the factor contributions stored in both versions — not generated text. Lineups and injuries join when a provider exists.