Lille v 
Paris SG
Paris SG 39%
WinPIQ does not see enough of an edge at the current price.
WinPIQ's call is PASS on Lille vs Paris SG. Paris SG is the most likely result, but the price does not clear WinPIQ's bar.
- WinPIQ probabilityWinPIQ's estimate of the chance this outcome happens, from 0–100%. It is not a promise: a 70% call still loses about 3 times in 10.
- 39%
- Fair price (WinPIQ)The odds WinPIQ's own probability implies, with no bookmaker margin — the 'true' price before the house's cut.
- 2.54
- Minimum priceThe lowest price at which this selection still has value — below it, the price no longer compensates for the risk.
- 3.09
- ConfidenceHow sure WinPIQ is about this call, combining model agreement, data and lineup certainty — one label, not a score.
- Medium confidence
Quick verdict
- StrengthAttacking strength supports this pick
- StrengthTeam strength supports this pick
- OtherModel fair price 2.54 vs 1.70 in the market — the market is more optimistic than the model.
- OtherParis SG are missing 6 players
- Home/AwayHome advantage works against this pick
No verified expert prediction was found for this match.
Market & price
No operator price is available right now
fair 2.54The odds WinPIQ's own probability implies, with no bookmaker margin — the 'true' price before the house's cut.acceptable from 3.09The lowest price at which this selection still has value — below it, the price no longer compensates for the risk.
Form
Lille's form has been about average once opponent strength is factored in.
Paris SG have underperformed once opponent strength is factored in.
What could change the call?
- No verified expert prediction was found for this match.
Post-match summary
Market
Market vs AI
| Selection | AI | Market (no-vig) | Price | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32.8% | — | — | 3.04 | — |
| X | 27.7% | — | — | 3.61 | — |
| 2 | 39.4% | — | — | 2.54 | — |
Decision state · WINPIQ PASS
Kickoff has passed; the pre-match analysis no longer applies
Why Analysis expired? ↓
Price zones and decision states are model-generated decision support — not a guaranteed outcome. No countdowns: “valid until” is the next real price refresh.
Market coherence · same thesis, different market
Cross-market residuals and margin map (Edge) ↓
Disagreement between markets is “cross-market discrepancy — review”, not an opportunity. Margin shows embedded cost per market structure — never an instruction to stake more.
More markets
Advanced
The model rates Paris SG at 39% — below the market price. Better to avoid.
Probability ≠ confidence ≠ edge ≠ recommendation. Four different numbers, on purpose.
- Probability
- 39%
- Fair odds (AI)
- 2.54
- Operator price
- no price
- Market (no-vig)
- —
- Edge
- -16.8 pp
- EV at the operator price
- —
- Confidence
- 69/100
- Model agreement
- 2/4
- Risk
- High
Why 45? ↓
- How clear the match is to the model17.3/25
- How many of our analysts agree7.5/15
- How much more than the odds we give it0/25
- How many bookmakers price the match10/10
- A price you can take right now0/5
The call (Avoid) follows fixed rules on edge and confidence — not the score.
- Model
- 39%
- Edge
- −16.8pp
- Conviction
- Low
- Uncertainty
- High
AI Committee
- 1. Paris SG are missing 6 players HIGH
- 2. The sub-models disagree (2/4 on Paris SG) MEDIUM
- 3. Kick-off within 3h and no lineup information MEDIUM
Why?
Risks
- Home advantage: −2.0
- Adjusted form (vs expectation): −1.4
- Defensive stability: −1.1
- Recent form (5 matches): −0.8
- The picture is still forming — no call yet.
What could change the call?
- No verified expert prediction was found for this match.
Probability distribution
The case · 2
balance -47Starting XI not confirmed — the model assumes an expected lineup
- attack (+4.0)
- team strength (+3.8)
- Starting XI not confirmed — the model assumes an expected lineup
- Paris SG are missing 6 players
- The sub-models disagree (2/4 on Paris SG)
- Kick-off within 3h and no lineup information
- home advantage (-2.0)
- A key player is missing from the confirmed XI
- Two or more models switch away from the pick
Derived from stored factors, model votes, market movement and lineups — not written to persuade.
Team strength
Recent form
Proof & history
Prediction Proof
- Id
- MQ-000044.v2
- Published
- Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC
- Locked
- not yet
- Model
- ens_v0.1
- Hash
- e23d3…7350
- Version
- v2 (previous: MQ-000044)
Prediction timeline
- Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTCInitial model · 2 40%
- Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTCVersion 2 · 2 39% (−0.7pp) · Market prices added
What changed?
- Team strength (Elo)+0.2
- Adjusted form (vs expectation)+0.2
Changes derive from the factor contributions stored in both versions — not generated text. Lineups and injuries join when a provider exists.