Mainz v 
SC Paderborn 07
Mainz 52%
WinPIQ does not see enough of an edge at the current price.
WinPIQ's call is PASS on Mainz vs SC Paderborn 07. Mainz is the most likely result, but the price does not clear WinPIQ's bar.
- WinPIQ probabilityWinPIQ's estimate of the chance this outcome happens, from 0–100%. It is not a promise: a 70% call still loses about 3 times in 10.
- 52%
- Fair price (WinPIQ)The odds WinPIQ's own probability implies, with no bookmaker margin — the 'true' price before the house's cut.
- 1.93
- Minimum priceThe lowest price at which this selection still has value — below it, the price no longer compensates for the risk.
- 2.25
- ConfidenceHow sure WinPIQ is about this call, combining model agreement, data and lineup certainty — one label, not a score.
- Medium confidence
Quick verdict
- Home/AwayHome advantage supports this pick
- StrengthDefensive stability supports this pick
- StrengthAttacking strength works against this pick
- OtherKick-off within 3h and no lineup information
No verified expert prediction was found for this match.
Market & price
No operator price is available right now
fair 1.93The odds WinPIQ's own probability implies, with no bookmaker margin — the 'true' price before the house's cut.acceptable from 2.25The lowest price at which this selection still has value — below it, the price no longer compensates for the risk.
Form
Mainz's form has been about average once opponent strength is factored in.
What could change the call?
- No verified expert prediction was found for this match.
Post-match summary
Market
Market vs AI
| Selection | AI | Market (no-vig) | Price | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.7% | — | — | 1.93 | — |
| X | 27.2% | — | — | 3.68 | — |
| 2 | 21.1% | — | — | 4.74 | — |
Decision state · WINPIQ PASS
Kickoff has passed; the pre-match analysis no longer applies
Why Analysis expired? ↓
Price zones and decision states are model-generated decision support — not a guaranteed outcome. No countdowns: “valid until” is the next real price refresh.
Market coherence · same thesis, different market
Cross-market residuals and margin map (Edge) ↓
Disagreement between markets is “cross-market discrepancy — review”, not an opportunity. Margin shows embedded cost per market structure — never an instruction to stake more.
More markets
Advanced
No suitable opportunity in this match yet.
Probability ≠ confidence ≠ edge ≠ recommendation. Four different numbers, on purpose.
- Probability
- 52%
- Fair odds (AI)
- 1.93
- Operator price
- no price
- Market (no-vig)
- —
- Edge
- —
- EV at the operator price
- —
- Confidence
- 64/100
- Model agreement
- 4/4
- Risk
- High
Why 31? ↓
- How clear the match is to the model16/25
- How many of our analysts agree15/15
- How much more than the odds we give it0/25
- How many bookmakers price the match0/10
- A price you can take right now0/5
The call (No opportunity right now) follows fixed rules on edge and confidence — not the score.
- Model
- 52%
- Edge
- —
- Conviction
- Low
- Uncertainty
- Medium
AI Committee
- 1. Kick-off within 3h and no lineup information MEDIUM
Why?
Risks
- Attacking strength: −0.9
- The picture is still forming — no call yet.
What could change the call?
- No verified expert prediction was found for this match.
Probability distribution
The case · 1
balance -56Starting XI not confirmed — the model assumes an expected lineup
- All 4 models agree
- home advantage (+1.3)
- defense (+0.6)
- Starting XI not confirmed — the model assumes an expected lineup
- Kick-off within 3h and no lineup information
- Draw risk 46
- A key player is missing from the confirmed XI
- Two or more models switch away from the pick
Derived from stored factors, model votes, market movement and lineups — not written to persuade.
Team strength
Recent form
Proof & history
Prediction Proof
- Id
- MQ-000059
- Published
- Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC
- Locked
- not yet
- Model
- ens_v0.1
- Hash
- 6c17d…3aec
- Version
- v1
Prediction timeline
- Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTCInitial model · 1 52%