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Serie A · MD5 · Fri 18 Sept · 18:45 UTC

Monza v Sassuolo

FT 2–1
האווטאר של WinPIQ עומד ברוגע, יד פתוחהWinPIQ DecisionPass

No suitable opportunity right now

No meaningful edge. PASS.

Confidence
Medium
Analysis strength
High
WinPIQ's probability
51%
Not below
+129

Expected lineups only — official confirmation is still pending.

WinPIQ's readings disagree, so confidence is reduced.

Why WinPIQ thinks this
  1. 1.availability
Biggest risk

Sassuolo are missing 134 players

What would change WinPIQ's view
  • A key player is missing from the confirmed XI

Updated Wed 16 Sept · 15:15 UTC

Why WinPIQ is passing

Saying no is part of the job — WinPIQ only takes a position when the evidence and the price both justify one.

This analysis has run its course.

WinPIQ changed its view

Previous views are never deleted — this is the record of the change.
Edge unlocks

The change record — what the analysis said before, and why it changed

Edge

The case against

WinPIQ argues against its own view before publishing.
Pro unlocks

WinPIQ's readings and the case against — four angles on every major call, and the argument against it

Pro

What am I missing?

Context that is easy to overlook on this match.
  • 5 doubtful players on Sassuolo's side — the XI is not settled

WinPIQ tracks more of these on this match

Serie A18 Sept 2026, 19:45updated 15:15 UTCAdvanced coverage
Most likely outcome

Sassuolo 51%

Betting decision
PASSNo suitable opportunity right now

WinPIQ does not see enough of an edge here.

WinPIQ's call is PASS on Monza vs Sassuolo. Sassuolo is the most likely result, but the price does not clear WinPIQ's bar.

WinPIQ probabilityWinPIQ's estimate of the chance this outcome happens, based on the information available right now. · It's the starting point for every decision on the page — every other number is compared against it. · A 70% call still loses about 3 times in 10 — it is not a promise. Full definition →
51%
Fair odds by WinPIQThe odds WinPIQ's own probability implies, before the operator's margin is added. · It's the benchmark for whether a live price is worth taking. · 50% implies fair odds of 2.00. Full definition →
1.98
The lowest price at which this selection still has valueBelow this price, the edge no longer covers the risk. · It marks where the price stops being worth the risk. · If the minimum price is 1.85 and the market offers 1.80, the edge is gone. Full definition →
2.29
Decision confidenceHow sure WinPIQ is about this call, combining model agreement, data and lineup certainty into one label. · It tells you how much weight to put on the call itself, separate from the price. · High confidence with a short price is a different situation than high confidence with a long one. Full definition →
High

Squad readiness

MonzaSquad almost at full strengthHow much of the team's usual starting lineup is expected to be available, in words rather than a raw number. · A missing regular starter can matter far more than a headline number would suggest. · 'Minor absences' versus 'significant absences' — named, not just counted. Full definition →
Expected XI — reported, not confirmedHow official the expected lineup is: confirmed team news, or WinPIQ's own projection when the team hasn't confirmed yet. · A projected lineup can still change before kickoff — this says how likely it is to hold. · 8 of the 11 projected positions are considered likely. Full definition → · updated 11:08 UTC

Doubtful: I. Toure, J. Ziółkowski

2 doubtful

SassuoloMinor absencesHow much of the team's usual starting lineup is expected to be available, in words rather than a raw number. · A missing regular starter can matter far more than a headline number would suggest. · 'Minor absences' versus 'significant absences' — named, not just counted. Full definition →
Expected XI — reported, not confirmedHow official the expected lineup is: confirmed team news, or WinPIQ's own projection when the team hasn't confirmed yet. · A projected lineup can still change before kickoff — this says how likely it is to hold. · 8 of the 11 projected positions are considered likely. Full definition → · updated 11:07 UTC
  • Jay Idzes · DF · Out · medium impact
  • Jay Idzes · DF · Out · medium impact
  • Jay Idzes · DF · Out · medium impact

Doubtful: D. Boloca, F. Cande, Cristian Volpato +2 more

3 key players out, 5 doubtful

Market & price

No operator price is available right now

fair -102The odds WinPIQ's own probability implies, before the operator's margin is added. · It's the benchmark for whether a live price is worth taking. · 50% implies fair odds of 2.00. Full definition →acceptable from +129Below this price, the edge no longer covers the risk. · It marks where the price stops being worth the risk. · If the minimum price is 1.85 and the market offers 1.80, the edge is gone. Full definition →

Form

Monza have underperformed once opponent strength is factored in.

Sassuolo have been in strong form once opponent strength is factored in.

What could change the call?

  • No verified expert prediction was found for this match.
UpdateWinPIQ's call on this match changed recently.· 15:15 UTC

Post-match summary

The result is never softened
MissAI predicted Sassuolo (51%) · result 2–1 · locked price 2.32

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