Napoli v 
Como
Napoli 41%
WinPIQ does not see enough of an edge at the current price.
WinPIQ's call is PASS on Napoli vs Como. Napoli is the most likely result, but the price does not clear WinPIQ's bar.
- WinPIQ probabilityWinPIQ's estimate of the chance this outcome happens, from 0–100%. It is not a promise: a 70% call still loses about 3 times in 10.
- 41%
- Fair price (WinPIQ)The odds WinPIQ's own probability implies, with no bookmaker margin — the 'true' price before the house's cut.
- 2.42
- Minimum priceThe lowest price at which this selection still has value — below it, the price no longer compensates for the risk.
- 2.76
- ConfidenceHow sure WinPIQ is about this call, combining model agreement, data and lineup certainty — one label, not a score.
- High confidence
Quick verdict
- Home/AwayHome advantage supports this pick
- StrengthTeam strength supports this pick
- OtherModel fair price 2.42 vs 2.52 in the market — the market prices this lower than the model.
- OtherNapoli are missing 8 players
- Other3 doubtful player(s) on Napoli's side — the XI is not settled
Lock expected in about 7 hours.
Market & price
No operator price is available right now
fair 2.42The odds WinPIQ's own probability implies, with no bookmaker margin — the 'true' price before the house's cut.acceptable from 2.76The lowest price at which this selection still has value — below it, the price no longer compensates for the risk.
Form
Napoli's form has been about average once opponent strength is factored in.
Como's form has been about average once opponent strength is factored in.
What could change the call?
- Lock expected in about 7 hours.
- Official lineups are not out yet — a material change triggers a recalculation.
Decision receipt · Napoli v Como
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Market
Market vs AI
| Selection | AI | Market (no-vig) | Price | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41.3% | — | — | 2.42 | — |
| X | 27.4% | — | — | 3.65 | — |
| 2 | 31.3% | — | — | 3.19 | — |
Decision state · WINPIQ PASS
No valid market price yet — a prediction without a price is incomplete
Why Wait for the market? ↓
Price zones and decision states are model-generated decision support — not a guaranteed outcome. No countdowns: “valid until” is the next real price refresh.
Market coherence · same thesis, different market
Cross-market residuals and margin map (Edge) ↓
Disagreement between markets is “cross-market discrepancy — review”, not an opportunity. Margin shows embedded cost per market structure — never an instruction to stake more.
More markets
Advanced
The model puts home win at 41%, 3.5 points above the market.
Probability ≠ confidence ≠ edge ≠ recommendation. Four different numbers, on purpose.
- Probability
- 41%
- Fair odds (AI)
- 2.42
- Operator price
- no price
- Market (no-vig)
- —
- Edge
- +3.5 pp
- EV at the operator price
- —
- Confidence
- 85/100
- Model agreement
- 4/4
- Risk
- Medium
Why 62? ↓
- How clear the match is to the model21.3/25
- How many of our analysts agree15/15
- How much more than the odds we give it5.9/25
- How many bookmakers price the match10/10
- A price you can take right now0/5
The call (Small edge) follows fixed rules on edge and confidence — not the score.
- Model
- 41%
- Edge
- +3.5pp
- Conviction
- Low
- Uncertainty
- Medium
AI Committee
- 1. Napoli are missing 8 players HIGH
- 2. 3 doubtful player(s) on Napoli's side — the XI is not settled MEDIUM
- 3. Napoli's winning run rests on 5 matches while the power gap is small LOW
Why?
Risks
- Attacking strength: −0.6
- The picture is still forming — no call yet.
What could change the call?
- Lock expected in about 7 hours.
- Official lineups are not out yet — a material change triggers a recalculation.
- No verified expert prediction was found for this match.
Probability distribution
The case · 1
balance -47Napoli are missing 8 players
- All 4 models agree
- home advantage (+1.0)
- team strength (+0.9)
- Napoli are missing 8 players
- 3 doubtful player(s) on Napoli's side — the XI is not settled
- Starting XI not confirmed — the model assumes an expected lineup
- Draw risk 49
- A key player is missing from the confirmed XI
- Two or more models switch away from the pick
Derived from stored factors, model votes, market movement and lineups — not written to persuade.
Team strength
Recent form
Proof & history
Prediction Proof
- Id
- MQ-000144.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11
- Published
- Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC
- Locked
- not yet
- Model
- ens_v0.1
- Hash
- 7c768…dfd6
- Version
- v11 (previous: MQ-000144.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10)
Prediction timeline
- Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTCInitial model · 1 58%
- Fri 28 Aug · 08:46 UTCVersion 2 · 1 41% (−17.1pp) · Team history linked
- −6.1 חוזק קבוצה (Elo)
- −4.0 כושר אחרון (5 משחקים)
- −3.4 כוח התקפי
- −1.9 יציבות הגנתית
- Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTCVersion 3 · 1 41% (+0pp) · Market prices added
- Sat 29 Aug · 16:36 UTCVersion 4 · 1 44% (+2.7pp) · Model refresh
- −1.0 יתרון ביתיות
- +0.6 כוח התקפי
- Sat 29 Aug · 18:15 UTCVersion 5 · 1 41% (−2.7pp) · Model refresh
- +1.0 יתרון ביתיות
- −0.6 כוח התקפי
- Sat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTCVersion 6 · 1 44% (+2.7pp) · Model refresh
- −1.0 יתרון ביתיות
- +0.6 כוח התקפי
- Sat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTCVersion 7 · 1 41% (−2.7pp) · Model refresh
- +1.0 יתרון ביתיות
- −0.6 כוח התקפי
- Sat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTCVersion 8 · 1 44% (+2.7pp) · Model refresh
- −1.0 יתרון ביתיות
- +0.6 כוח התקפי
- Sun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTCVersion 9 · 1 41% (−2.7pp) · Model refresh
- +1.0 יתרון ביתיות
- −0.6 כוח התקפי
- Sun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTCVersion 10 · 1 44% (+2.7pp) · Model refresh
- −1.0 יתרון ביתיות
- +0.6 כוח התקפי
- Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTCVersion 11 · 1 41% (−2.7pp) · Model refresh
- +1.0 יתרון ביתיות
- −0.6 כוח התקפי
What changed?
- Home advantage+1
- Attacking strength-0.6
Changes derive from the factor contributions stored in both versions — not generated text. Lineups and injuries join when a provider exists.
Experts & community
AI · Market · Community
Napoli v Como: expert predictions enter only from licensed sources and only when explicit.
Community
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