MQ-000138
Real Madrid v Malaga · La Liga · Sun 30 Aug · 15:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.35
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC
- Published
- Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC
- Locked
- —
Publication recordFri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC18941…4cb5
{
"confidenceScore": 64,
"dataQualityScore": 2,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtcpezcb01khr66od8uyr295",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.35,
"featureVersion": "f0.1",
"fixtureId": "cmtcpek2000i3r6zoabqnggfd",
"generatedAt": "2026-08-28T08:42:58.994Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.743478,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
"predictionId": "MQ-000138",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-08-28T08:42:58.994Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 74.3% · DRAW 19.5% · AWAY 6.1%
- Model version
- ens_v0.1
- Feature version
- f0.1
- Calibration version
- iso_v1
- Calibration scope
- not recorded for this prediction
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-08-28 08:42Z
- Information cutoff
- not recorded for this prediction
- Data coverage
- not recorded for this prediction
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000138
- Fair price
- 1.35
- Market price
- 1.13
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 10.2 percentage points
- Generated
- Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC
- Published
- Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC
- Locked
- —
Publication recordFri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC6f13f…8207
{
"confidenceScore": 67,
"dataQualityScore": 17,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtcpwjkw00zvr60v8kvt39hl",
"edge": -0.102443,
"fairOdds": 1.35,
"featureVersion": "f0.1",
"fixtureId": "cmtcpek2000i3r6zoabqnggfd",
"generatedAt": "2026-08-28T08:56:38.254Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.13,
"modelProbability": 0.743478,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
"predictionId": "MQ-000138.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000138",
"publishedAt": "2026-08-28T08:56:38.254Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 74.3% · DRAW 19.5% · AWAY 6.1%
- Model version
- ens_v0.1
- Feature version
- f0.1
- Calibration version
- iso_v1
- Calibration scope
- not recorded for this prediction
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-08-28 08:56Z
- Information cutoff
- not recorded for this prediction
- Data coverage
- not recorded for this prediction
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- 1.13
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000138.v2
- Fair price
- 1.35
- Market price
- 1.10
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 12.7 percentage points
- Generated
- Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC
- Published
- Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC
- Locked
- —
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC14975…39b9
{
"confidenceScore": 67,
"dataQualityScore": 17,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtfea1xk006lr6w0sqedz8az",
"edge": -0.126669,
"fairOdds": 1.35,
"featureVersion": "f0.1",
"fixtureId": "cmtcpek2000i3r6zoabqnggfd",
"generatedAt": "2026-08-30T05:54:14.951Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.1,
"modelProbability": 0.743478,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
"predictionId": "MQ-000138.v2.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000138.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-08-30T05:54:14.951Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 74.3% · DRAW 19.5% · AWAY 6.1%
- Model version
- ens_v0.1
- Feature version
- f0.1
- Calibration version
- iso_v1
- Calibration scope
- not recorded for this prediction
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-08-30 05:54Z
- Information cutoff
- not recorded for this prediction
- Data coverage
- not recorded for this prediction
- Lead time
- H6_12
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- 1.10
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 4 · previous MQ-000138.v2.v3
- Fair price
- 1.40
- Market price
- 1.09
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 16.2 percentage points
- Generated
- Sun 30 Aug · 09:56 UTC
- Published
- Sun 30 Aug · 09:56 UTC
- Locked
- —
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 09:56 UTC29df4…b2b0
{
"confidenceScore": 69,
"dataQualityScore": 32,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtfmx88i001tr6tkcwgvl3qb",
"edge": -0.162218,
"fairOdds": 1.4,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtcpek2000i3r6zoabqnggfd",
"generatedAt": "2026-08-30T09:56:04.862Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.09,
"modelProbability": 0.714658,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.2",
"predictionId": "MQ-000138.v2.v3.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000138.v2.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-08-30T09:56:04.862Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 71.5% · DRAW 19.8% · AWAY 8.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.2
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-08-30 09:56Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-08-30 09:56Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- 1.09
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 5 · previous MQ-000138.v2.v3.v4
- Fair price
- 1.35
- Market price
- 1.09
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 14.2 percentage points
- Generated
- Sun 30 Aug · 12:18 UTC
- Published
- Sun 30 Aug · 12:18 UTC
- Locked
- —
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 12:18 UTC2ffee…edab
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 32,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtfscv0r003dr6n5vgisdh39",
"edge": -0.141615,
"fairOdds": 1.35,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtcpek2000i3r6zoabqnggfd",
"generatedAt": "2026-08-30T12:18:00.416Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.09,
"modelProbability": 0.739024,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000138.v2.v3.v4.v5",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000138.v2.v3.v4",
"publishedAt": "2026-08-30T12:18:00.416Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 73.9% · DRAW 20.0% · AWAY 6.1%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-08-30 12:18Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-08-30 12:18Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- 1.09
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.