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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000166

MQ-000166

Monaco v Marseille · Ligue 1 · Sun 30 Aug · 18:45 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

BTTS · YES · 65.6% · confidence 81
בוטל
Fair price
1.52
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC
Published
Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordFri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC2d82e…6f3b
2d82e6148d4bec3186bbae03adbeeac47a2f9d90204ce5c3bf03f6cbe4de6f3b
{
 "confidenceScore": 81,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtcpezsd01z1r66obmqdb490",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.52,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek4l00r9r6zoydpmnnmp",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-28T08:42:58.994Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.656467,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000166",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-28T08:42:58.994Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 65.6% · NO 34.4%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-28 08:42Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H48_72
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000166

BTTS · YES · 50.0% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.00
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 16:36 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 16:36 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 16:36 UTCfbd27…5eda
fbd27a3729a1e7ffac40d6fa66b8d3ca39d2c6922f98ab6f7284a28a04825eda
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtelrivt00u5l10437uky3yr",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek4l00r9r6zoydpmnnmp",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T16:36:00.618Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.5,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000166.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000166",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T16:36:00.618Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 50.0% · NO 50.0%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 16:36Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000166.v2

BTTS · YES · 65.5% · confidence 84 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.53
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 18:15 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 18:15 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 18:15 UTC3f4c5…b423
3f4c54b1f1642e24758a65811c0624af02891eaffa15b6078be529830e2fb423
{
 "confidenceScore": 84,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtepfpsa010jr6xfyiwlby28",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.53,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek4l00r9r6zoydpmnnmp",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T18:15:09.810Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.655414,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000166.v2.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000166.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T18:15:09.810Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 65.5% · NO 34.5%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 18:15Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000166.v2.v3

BTTS · YES · 50.0% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.00
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTC8259d…f450
8259d0a01d91051a11b268ab68fdb64861e5f417f47be2e4c3b18500ab04f450
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmteusbnm00bxkz04uunq5nva",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek4l00r9r6zoydpmnnmp",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T20:48:46.586Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.5,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000166.v2.v3.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000166.v2.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T20:48:46.586Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 50.0% · NO 50.0%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 20:48Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000166.v2.v3.v4

BTTS · YES · 65.5% · confidence 84 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.53
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC5fa2f…7261
5fa2f046fa5563b8c7282011d4190d4fc88021e6e6cb45fd59ed8fc860f37261
{
 "confidenceScore": 84,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtewctlw00mbr6yd3egl6mkr",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.53,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek4l00r9r6zoydpmnnmp",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T21:31:46.213Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.655147,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000166.v2.v3.v4.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000166.v2.v3.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T21:31:46.213Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 65.5% · NO 34.5%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 21:31Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000166.v2.v3.v4.v5

BTTS · YES · 50.0% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.00
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC5e14f…b396
5e14f2ec32e63fe34234ad0a2d5c566dd9fab134d3819f18c75783ce7cc8b396
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtezvrc100cdl804mqjkwdx3",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek4l00r9r6zoydpmnnmp",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T23:11:25.588Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.5,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000166.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000166.v2.v3.v4.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T23:11:25.588Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 50.0% · NO 50.0%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 23:11Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 7 · previous MQ-000166.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6

BTTS · YES · 65.4% · confidence 68 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.53
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC56711…22b1
56711b67db51dbf6e101b27962bd9dbdc2e1265289e911ee715cd314064722b1
{
 "confidenceScore": 68,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtf1zoqz00mbr6c40xvmgtzf",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.53,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek4l00r9r6zoydpmnnmp",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T00:09:36.630Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.654447,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000166.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000166.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T00:09:36.630Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 65.4% · NO 34.6%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 00:09Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 8 · previous MQ-000166.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7

BTTS · YES · 50.0% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.00
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC8bde4…b479
8bde40b0bb7253c6ffa4c02426c3580af956da60edc5a0db24981899b917b479
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfcbqtn00bxjz04jabubdeo",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek4l00r9r6zoydpmnnmp",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T04:59:45.644Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.5,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000166.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000166.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T04:59:45.644Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 50.0% · NO 50.0%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 04:59Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 9 · previous MQ-000166.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8

BTTS · YES · 65.4% · confidence 68 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.53
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTCa67b0…0b2e
a67b06fedbfd7d4ab4ccac03d8518f81331cd9f770d5d7cb0b85a5f4ebda0b2e
{
 "confidenceScore": 68,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfeawgi00mbr6w0cmlspeue",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.53,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek4l00r9r6zoydpmnnmp",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T05:54:14.951Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.654412,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000166.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000166.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T05:54:14.951Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 65.4% · NO 34.6%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 05:54Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 10 · previous MQ-000166.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9

BTTS · YES · 63.3% · confidence 90 · reason: Official lineup
החטאה
Fair price
1.58
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 16:14 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 16:14 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 16:14 UTCda2af…e296
da2af72209bdb249a9dd39009479b84e1e0e3c104ed75bbe94a82d630d18e296
{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtg0nfjx00a5r62esj477yll",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.58,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek4l00r9r6zoydpmnnmp",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T16:14:12.028Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.633136,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000166.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000166.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T16:14:12.028Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 63.3% · NO 36.7%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 16:14Z
Information cutoff
2026-08-30 16:14Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H1_6
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.