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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000173

MQ-000173

Celta v Ath Bilbao · La Liga · Sun 30 Aug · 19:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 51.8% · confidence 83
בוטל
Fair price
1.93
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC
Published
Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC
Locked
Sun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC
Publication recordFri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC6d6b9…3fa4
6d6b97e0c39736fc4832d2ea468a1b3c6bbc53cc7895d56365d50814f4673fa4
{
 "confidenceScore": 83,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtcpezwh0241r66onqzfl55j",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.93,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-28T08:42:58.994Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.517745,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-28T08:42:58.994Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTCe3dd7…56e7
e3dd7ddf232aa7014c14e5d86bd9ad8cff51c3bb8f4f484a21af2827cfbb56e7
{
 "confidenceScore": 83,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtcpezwh0241r66onqzfl55j",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.93,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-28T08:42:58.994Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.517745,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T19:26:51.969Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 51.8% · DRAW 27.9% · AWAY 20.3%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-28 08:42Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H48_72
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000173

1X2 · HOME · 51.8% · confidence 86 · reason: Market prices added
בוטל
Fair price
1.93
Market price
2.39
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
12 percentage points
Generated
Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC
Published
Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC
Locked
Sun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC
Publication recordFri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTCf6a4d…488d
f6a4d73fff1290198a5ed9a5f06f78bfe97b23c9eb57301a1c3c5e61a353488d
{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtcpwk71018vr60vcefv8646",
 "edge": 0.120357,
 "fairOdds": 1.93,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-28T08:56:38.254Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.39,
 "modelProbability": 0.517745,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-28T08:56:38.254Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC37693…579b
376936857111a522feb15e78162784dbc104d3dc4e2c4eaecee7d34977f5579b
{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtcpwk71018vr60vcefv8646",
 "edge": 0.120357,
 "fairOdds": 1.93,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-28T08:56:38.254Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.39,
 "modelProbability": 0.517745,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T19:26:51.969Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 51.8% · DRAW 27.9% · AWAY 20.3%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-28 08:56Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H48_72
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
2.39
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000173.v2

1X2 · HOME · 55.4% · confidence 87 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.81
Market price
2.39
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
15.6 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 03:13 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 03:13 UTC
Locked
Sun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 03:13 UTC83fd6…9ff2
83fd6bba8f49ee7ac3cdac07fcfdf2ac40f9caa7d93fbf854ccd6e99fd109ff2
{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtdt36xq00vxr6quqtlnmk7v",
 "edge": 0.156116,
 "fairOdds": 1.81,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T03:13:33.995Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.39,
 "modelProbability": 0.553504,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T03:13:33.995Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTCbe3a7…54fd
be3a789dc22e1593ee75597d71f8594f8cdf37bd72832caa090e2105595c54fd
{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtdt36xq00vxr6quqtlnmk7v",
 "edge": 0.156116,
 "fairOdds": 1.81,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T03:13:33.995Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.39,
 "modelProbability": 0.553504,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T19:26:51.969Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 55.4% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 17.8%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 03:13Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
2.39
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000173.v2.v3

1X2 · HOME · 57.4% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.74
Market price
2.40
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
17.7 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 16:36 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 16:36 UTC
Locked
Sun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 16:36 UTC36bb0…896e
36bb082bf708e3072738dc4f358cd14a0543541c17a51855a7ee65bf4e7f896e
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtelrjw600w7l1042k1f2aoj",
 "edge": 0.177077,
 "fairOdds": 1.74,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T16:36:00.618Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.4,
 "modelProbability": 0.573822,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T16:36:00.618Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC54dec…142a
54decbd671f102c5d315edffd10d25b8af2eaa1b6c6d34d951e033472a9c142a
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtelrjw600w7l1042k1f2aoj",
 "edge": 0.177077,
 "fairOdds": 1.74,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T16:36:00.618Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.4,
 "modelProbability": 0.573822,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T19:26:51.969Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 57.4% · DRAW 17.2% · AWAY 25.5%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 16:36Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
2.40
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4

1X2 · HOME · 55.4% · confidence 87 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.81
Market price
2.41
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
15.8 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 18:15 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 18:15 UTC
Locked
Sun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 18:15 UTC9e28d…6bb9
9e28d049299831369821eb92a38ab75213e63e936e9dfed49c27bd83c2a86bb9
{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtepfx8q014lr6xfnwbwzu7k",
 "edge": 0.158158,
 "fairOdds": 1.81,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T18:15:09.810Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.41,
 "modelProbability": 0.553504,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T18:15:09.810Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTCfd3da…232a
fd3da42cc5a470d23613daf97daa0388a1668dae778c24e7bca4f0411fe0232a
{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtepfx8q014lr6xfnwbwzu7k",
 "edge": 0.158158,
 "fairOdds": 1.81,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T18:15:09.810Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.41,
 "modelProbability": 0.553504,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T19:26:51.969Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 55.4% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 17.8%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 18:15Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
2.41
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5

1X2 · HOME · 57.5% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.74
Market price
2.41
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
18 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTC
Locked
Sun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTC0e2c4…a75e
0e2c451e7277fa9f330f940ea66b4b1c5f89936595cf57dca3528ee5c4d2a75e
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmteuscj400dzkz0445fzymcs",
 "edge": 0.179614,
 "fairOdds": 1.74,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T20:48:46.586Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.41,
 "modelProbability": 0.57496,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T20:48:46.586Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC30f90…3ac3
30f908c599acefa476d5b3b26a9ce01835e4c6b0ee210ed89f833de0460e3ac3
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmteuscj400dzkz0445fzymcs",
 "edge": 0.179614,
 "fairOdds": 1.74,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T20:48:46.586Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.41,
 "modelProbability": 0.57496,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T19:26:51.969Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 57.5% · DRAW 17.1% · AWAY 25.4%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 20:48Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
2.41
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 7 · previous MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6

1X2 · HOME · 55.4% · confidence 87 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.81
Market price
2.42
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
15.9 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC
Locked
Sun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC14b32…49ef
14b3201e71b999842d668a6280f0f23610e4fd331a3eaf3e66cd549f62f349ef
{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtewd1da00qdr6ydwadzhg78",
 "edge": 0.159099,
 "fairOdds": 1.81,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T21:31:46.213Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.42,
 "modelProbability": 0.553504,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T21:31:46.213Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC5ce99…e6d8
5ce99a790efea1a242e1fa44f1b58227fa2fd7ce84e8d42e97d8415281eae6d8
{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtewd1da00qdr6ydwadzhg78",
 "edge": 0.159099,
 "fairOdds": 1.81,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T21:31:46.213Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.42,
 "modelProbability": 0.553504,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T19:26:51.969Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 55.4% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 17.8%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 21:31Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
2.42
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 8 · previous MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7

1X2 · HOME · 57.4% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.74
Market price
2.41
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
17.9 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC
Locked
Sun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC78a9a…d184
78a9a5ae0faa08cc2e228fd63ceb10db411df54d5d861cd67ccb28646e6ed184
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtezvs4900efl80492xmv6lu",
 "edge": 0.179057,
 "fairOdds": 1.74,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T23:11:25.588Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.41,
 "modelProbability": 0.574404,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T23:11:25.588Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC2dba8…ad91
2dba8ee2d4ad9d4644c66c9328c712803cf9a9a53a388b6391c88f304b17ad91
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtezvs4900efl80492xmv6lu",
 "edge": 0.179057,
 "fairOdds": 1.74,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T23:11:25.588Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.41,
 "modelProbability": 0.574404,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T19:26:51.969Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 57.4% · DRAW 17.1% · AWAY 25.5%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 23:11Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
2.41
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 9 · previous MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8

1X2 · HOME · 55.4% · confidence 87 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.81
Market price
2.41
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
15.8 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC
Locked
Sun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC63af8…4364
63af8022a79960f02f58956118df39bfd26dfd4abe1581b894f6a3cd15b44364
{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtf1zw7m00qdr6c45sbwg3i2",
 "edge": 0.158158,
 "fairOdds": 1.81,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T00:09:36.630Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.41,
 "modelProbability": 0.553504,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T00:09:36.630Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC70bbf…d995
70bbfb6b0221df23dc09a71eca9c8605315c7a3d76927afc152fb44f5875d995
{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtf1zw7m00qdr6c45sbwg3i2",
 "edge": 0.158158,
 "fairOdds": 1.81,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T00:09:36.630Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.41,
 "modelProbability": 0.553504,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T19:26:51.969Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 55.4% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 17.8%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 00:09Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
2.41
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 10 · previous MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9

1X2 · HOME · 57.4% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.74
Market price
2.43
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
18.2 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC
Locked
Sun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC7a41c…e889
7a41cf4ac73348d94b0722f99a84004cad4f90ed32f42a7973636d8c822be889
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfcbrrn00dzjz04ceed0kpa",
 "edge": 0.182146,
 "fairOdds": 1.74,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T04:59:45.644Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.43,
 "modelProbability": 0.574404,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T04:59:45.644Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC227bc…78de
227bc909515699e5b22f9259917713d7eac3b41cc0b01598b705a953fcb978de
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfcbrrn00dzjz04ceed0kpa",
 "edge": 0.182146,
 "fairOdds": 1.74,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T04:59:45.644Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.43,
 "modelProbability": 0.574404,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T19:26:51.969Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 57.4% · DRAW 17.1% · AWAY 25.5%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 04:59Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
2.43
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 11 · previous MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10

1X2 · HOME · 55.4% · confidence 87 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.81
Market price
2.51
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
17.4 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC
Locked
Sun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC58963…5a19
58963c49c738edd82eaabe7bf1444d7f89f01606fc0dd48ea587cbe51fc65a19
{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfeb3v800qdr6w0aht1mhk3",
 "edge": 0.173677,
 "fairOdds": 1.81,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T05:54:14.951Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.51,
 "modelProbability": 0.553504,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T05:54:14.951Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC458e6…b9f2
458e666b4593b6b386c930748e7b8363f2c2cdec0742fc4227096fa02b0bb9f2
{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfeb3v800qdr6w0aht1mhk3",
 "edge": 0.173677,
 "fairOdds": 1.81,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T05:54:14.951Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.51,
 "modelProbability": 0.553504,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T19:26:51.969Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 55.4% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 17.8%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 05:54Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
2.51
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 12 · previous MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11

1X2 · HOME · 56.4% · confidence 89 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.77
Market price
2.67
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
20.6 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 09:56 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 09:56 UTC
Locked
Sun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 09:56 UTCa4f4e…8f6b
a4f4ee5f547935ddbd5cd8925faeae8db4c98aa223ac820b300b6b7b62118f6b
{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfmyc40007xr6tkofy5egut",
 "edge": 0.206202,
 "fairOdds": 1.77,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T09:56:04.862Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.67,
 "modelProbability": 0.564009,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.2",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T09:56:04.862Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTCeac02…cdf7
eac02e6e88cbbe8a945d629f47a380f4a7455f6a4ffb798ec151e615ddf3cdf7
{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfmyc40007xr6tkofy5egut",
 "edge": 0.206202,
 "fairOdds": 1.77,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T09:56:04.862Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.67,
 "modelProbability": 0.564009,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.2",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T19:26:51.969Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 56.4% · DRAW 26.5% · AWAY 17.0%
Model version
ens_v0.2
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 09:56Z
Information cutoff
2026-08-30 09:56Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H6_12
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
2.67
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 13 · previous MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12

1X2 · HOME · 55.4% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.81
Market price
2.68
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
19.7 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTC
Locked
Sun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTC1f941…f72e
1f941ffaa8e97a4635307ebd973edbb8e063ff4fd1f9e8b3ce102bfb339df72e
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfsfv6700dxr62v96oa993e",
 "edge": 0.197363,
 "fairOdds": 1.81,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T12:29:22.549Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.68,
 "modelProbability": 0.553868,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12.v13",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T12:29:22.549Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC49d23…c249
49d2311e11378a51da919b7a8a47b39cb105701895744d27a953cfa9cf53c249
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfsfv6700dxr62v96oa993e",
 "edge": 0.197363,
 "fairOdds": 1.81,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T12:29:22.549Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.68,
 "modelProbability": 0.553868,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12.v13",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T19:26:51.969Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 55.4% · DRAW 25.4% · AWAY 19.2%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 12:29Z
Information cutoff
2026-08-30 12:29Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H6_12
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
2.68
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 14 · previous MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12.v13

1X2 · HOME · 52.9% · confidence 93 · reason: Official lineup
החטאה
Fair price
1.89
Market price
2.71
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
17.7 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 17:13 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 17:13 UTC
Locked
Sun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 17:13 UTC62671…ef90
626710ce8cd5493179578aa32c955368ab3aefdf9dd8e1c8a1fb7b836e68ef90
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtg2p3gg003or60kn6mvwrpg",
 "edge": 0.176532,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T17:13:22.616Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.71,
 "modelProbability": 0.529268,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12.v13.v14",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12.v13",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T17:13:22.616Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSun 30 Aug · 19:26 UTC3730a…a33c
3730a027cf093456d9826df842b777ff1a7bd7571c8f83ae2333b0b1cf22a33c
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtg2p3gg003or60kn6mvwrpg",
 "edge": 0.176532,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2400ifr6zo6osm3avm",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T17:13:22.616Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.71,
 "modelProbability": 0.529268,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12.v13.v14",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000173.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10.v11.v12.v13",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T19:26:51.969Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 52.9% · DRAW 26.8% · AWAY 20.3%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 17:13Z
Information cutoff
2026-08-30 17:13Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H1_6
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
2.71
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.