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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000180

MQ-000180

Osasuna v Getafe · La Liga · Mon 31 Aug · 17:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

OU25 · UNDER · 69.8% · confidence 84
בוטל
Fair price
1.43
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC
Published
Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordFri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC3c7b3…7839
3c7b3014b181502c8178d98e03f685d3d9665887a51b1f3c84a5aaf3fd697839
{
 "confidenceScore": 84,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtcpezzj027dr66ozks3xchi",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.43,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2600ilr6zo3z66ypm3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-28T08:42:58.994Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.69786,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000180",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-28T08:42:58.994Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 30.2% · UNDER 69.8%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-28 08:42Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000180

OU25 · UNDER · 69.8% · confidence 87 · reason: Market prices added
בוטל
Fair price
1.43
Market price
1.41
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
3.1 percentage points
Generated
Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC
Published
Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordFri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC82282…8c69
82282bda60886d4764cb218346f85e1f2c4e36c55b7da24e6434cc2e12ba8c69
{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtcpwkan01b7r60vt0rgjmfy",
 "edge": 0.03119,
 "fairOdds": 1.43,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2600ilr6zo3z66ypm3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-28T08:56:38.254Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.41,
 "modelProbability": 0.697857,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000180.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000180",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-28T08:56:38.254Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 30.2% · UNDER 69.8%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-28 08:56Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.41
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000180.v2

OU25 · OVER · 52.0% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.92
Market price
2.88
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
19.4 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTC39df8…47fc
39df82c71708226328fabd4cd6840b238cc9d23ab1dc39fb23f29980039447fc
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmteusdi700g9kz04k2tvexg7",
 "edge": 0.194473,
 "fairOdds": 1.92,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2600ilr6zo3z66ypm3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T20:48:46.586Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2.88,
 "modelProbability": 0.52,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000180.v2.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000180.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T20:48:46.586Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 52.0% · UNDER 48.0%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 20:48Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
2.88
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000180.v2.v3

OU25 · UNDER · 70.0% · confidence 86 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.43
Market price
1.38
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
1.8 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC1b37b…d6c1
1b37b7a75b3f798a12a096c69e18b7515fcc8e3e5a7cfa14de0d19377712d6c1
{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtewda7k00uxr6yd1pc6fkx6",
 "edge": 0.018366,
 "fairOdds": 1.43,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2600ilr6zo3z66ypm3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T21:31:46.213Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.38,
 "modelProbability": 0.699659,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000180.v2.v3.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000180.v2.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T21:31:46.213Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 30.0% · UNDER 70.0%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 21:31Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.38
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000180.v2.v3.v4

OU25 · OVER · 52.0% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.92
Market price
2.95
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
20.1 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC3cb96…929d
3cb960ee430fba3472052a3d927a54a831db8a4aa70c099996765779f898929d
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtezvsze00gpl8047ow4muya",
 "edge": 0.201293,
 "fairOdds": 1.92,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2600ilr6zo3z66ypm3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T23:11:25.588Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2.95,
 "modelProbability": 0.52,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000180.v2.v3.v4.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000180.v2.v3.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T23:11:25.588Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 52.0% · UNDER 48.0%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 23:11Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
2.95
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000180.v2.v3.v4.v5

OU25 · UNDER · 70.0% · confidence 86 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.43
Market price
1.38
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
1.9 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC3d5b1…c59d
3d5b1340648a352cfd035c67299ac6f063b6557ddb5d02c88a31ae49b939c59d
{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtf204b300uxr6c4ijpp9pu2",
 "edge": 0.019066,
 "fairOdds": 1.43,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2600ilr6zo3z66ypm3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T00:09:36.630Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.38,
 "modelProbability": 0.700359,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000180.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000180.v2.v3.v4.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T00:09:36.630Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 30.0% · UNDER 70.0%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 00:09Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.38
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 7 · previous MQ-000180.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6

OU25 · OVER · 52.0% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.92
Market price
2.95
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
20.1 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC8b94f…bd5b
8b94fd6c7fde99537df914c542f4abd5679939cdb20ef3adf173ac05812ebd5b
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfcbstc00g9jz04qsxuaxjt",
 "edge": 0.201293,
 "fairOdds": 1.92,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2600ilr6zo3z66ypm3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T04:59:45.644Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2.95,
 "modelProbability": 0.52,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000180.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000180.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T04:59:45.644Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 52.0% · UNDER 48.0%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 04:59Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
2.95
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 8 · previous MQ-000180.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7

OU25 · UNDER · 70.0% · confidence 86 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.43
Market price
1.38
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
1.5 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTCa2c46…e280
a2c4672f52f3edf97a1d3ea98540fb3bcadd0673be0a80d921efae371c40e280
{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfebdaq00uxr6w0gh7edp5c",
 "edge": 0.015334,
 "fairOdds": 1.43,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2600ilr6zo3z66ypm3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T05:54:14.951Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.38,
 "modelProbability": 0.700266,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000180.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000180.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T05:54:14.951Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 30.0% · UNDER 70.0%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 05:54Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.38
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 9 · previous MQ-000180.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8

OU25 · UNDER · 68.6% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.46
Market price
1.38
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
0.1 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTCb8e1d…b850
b8e1de7c5b2237fd5523b6561371c2f61db5c73dbd2fcaee43a4baaba4bbb850
{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfsg6ch00hhr62vsn2etkaj",
 "edge": 0.001102,
 "fairOdds": 1.46,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2600ilr6zo3z66ypm3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T12:29:22.549Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.38,
 "modelProbability": 0.686034,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000180.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000180.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T12:29:22.549Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 31.4% · UNDER 68.6%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 12:29Z
Information cutoff
2026-08-30 12:29Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.38
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 10 · previous MQ-000180.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9

OU25 · UNDER · 67.3% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh
פגיעה
Fair price
1.49
Market price
1.38
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
1.2 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 18:14 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 18:14 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 18:14 UTC8285e…d418
8285e0fec850e04d2dab7f22463764359ce4355ef9854105bdeaf53eefc1d418
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtg4q9mu002zr63a0uqb4s5k",
 "edge": -0.011579,
 "fairOdds": 1.49,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2600ilr6zo3z66ypm3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T18:14:31.356Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.38,
 "modelProbability": 0.673353,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000180.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000180.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T18:14:31.356Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 32.7% · UNDER 67.3%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 18:14Z
Information cutoff
2026-08-30 18:14Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.38
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.