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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000181

MQ-000181

Osasuna v Getafe · La Liga · Mon 31 Aug · 17:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

BTTS · NO · 62.8% · confidence 84
בוטל
Fair price
1.59
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC
Published
Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordFri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC66012…4a2e
66012fbf0812981ac3f3243bd5086e2a4ea077959eef4a28d00043c5bda34a2e
{
 "confidenceScore": 84,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtcpezzj027dr66ozks3xchi",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.59,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2600ilr6zo3z66ypm3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-28T08:42:58.994Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.628358,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000181",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-28T08:42:58.994Z",
 "selection": "NO"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 37.2% · NO 62.8%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-28 08:42Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000181

BTTS · YES · 50.0% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.00
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTCaaa4d…1d00
aaa4d078483e972e9c9556e5ccf6418a79ccb705c4e36b52da0d61a1c81a1d00
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmteusdi700g9kz04k2tvexg7",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2600ilr6zo3z66ypm3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T20:48:46.586Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.5,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000181.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000181",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T20:48:46.586Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 50.0% · NO 50.0%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 20:48Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000181.v2

BTTS · NO · 63.1% · confidence 86 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.58
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC2ce14…caca
2ce145c7594927f039039fba7eedf83be6da23680b5aee79122139b3fd10caca
{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtewda7k00uxr6yd1pc6fkx6",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.58,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2600ilr6zo3z66ypm3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T21:31:46.213Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.63133,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000181.v2.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000181.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T21:31:46.213Z",
 "selection": "NO"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 36.9% · NO 63.1%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 21:31Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000181.v2.v3

BTTS · YES · 50.0% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.00
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC73740…32ab
73740b64d5e6b4d1227882178d1d7c694e74d0e84249f90e6c993dc7cb9832ab
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtezvsze00gpl8047ow4muya",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2600ilr6zo3z66ypm3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T23:11:25.588Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.5,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000181.v2.v3.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000181.v2.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T23:11:25.588Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 50.0% · NO 50.0%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 23:11Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000181.v2.v3.v4

BTTS · NO · 63.1% · confidence 86 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.59
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTCbe152…c3b4
be152e0556cc3f51eed93670630bccf90568f0dd01104aeaf640cc9523fcc3b4
{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtf204b300uxr6c4ijpp9pu2",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.59,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2600ilr6zo3z66ypm3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T00:09:36.630Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.63079,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000181.v2.v3.v4.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000181.v2.v3.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T00:09:36.630Z",
 "selection": "NO"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 36.9% · NO 63.1%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 00:09Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000181.v2.v3.v4.v5

BTTS · YES · 50.0% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.00
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTCa3013…9b3b
a3013c30bcc430f5b63c540094ae3012d26141ade1deeb90625b44dacc379b3b
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfcbstc00g9jz04qsxuaxjt",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2600ilr6zo3z66ypm3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T04:59:45.644Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.5,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000181.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000181.v2.v3.v4.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T04:59:45.644Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 50.0% · NO 50.0%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 04:59Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 7 · previous MQ-000181.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6

BTTS · NO · 63.1% · confidence 86 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.59
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTCfd315…59fa
fd315fa196e9ec5b368f4aece0baa097e198c6fc53a7fc5c2977319c1f5859fa
{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfebdaq00uxr6w0gh7edp5c",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.59,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2600ilr6zo3z66ypm3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T05:54:14.951Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.630707,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000181.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000181.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T05:54:14.951Z",
 "selection": "NO"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 36.9% · NO 63.1%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 05:54Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 8 · previous MQ-000181.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7

BTTS · NO · 61.7% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.62
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTC74c5f…efc8
74c5f52022b1d5e83af0147aa2ad980c359ec05bbf91c79094e94667da0fefc8
{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfsg6ch00hhr62vsn2etkaj",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2600ilr6zo3z66ypm3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T12:29:22.549Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.617352,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000181.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000181.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T12:29:22.549Z",
 "selection": "NO"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 38.3% · NO 61.7%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 12:29Z
Information cutoff
2026-08-30 12:29Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 9 · previous MQ-000181.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8

BTTS · NO · 60.7% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh
פגיעה
Fair price
1.65
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 18:14 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 18:14 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 18:14 UTCdb951…b07e
db951d50e0ffdfc77d58a597f5786e6cbe981c6c1f5e51066349a3ec65fbb07e
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtg4q9mu002zr63a0uqb4s5k",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.65,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2600ilr6zo3z66ypm3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T18:14:31.356Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.606709,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000181.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000181.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T18:14:31.356Z",
 "selection": "NO"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 39.3% · NO 60.7%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 18:14Z
Information cutoff
2026-08-30 18:14Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.

Prediction proof MQ-000181 — Osasuna v Getafe · WinPIQ