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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000183

MQ-000183

Atalanta v Bologna · Serie A · Mon 31 Aug · 18:45 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

OU25 · UNDER · 56.3% · confidence 83
בוטל
Fair price
1.78
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC
Published
Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordFri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTCbfd51…47e3
bfd51fbd6aa29cd44fc540d7fa2a4a03e362d238cd5dc933a9f9638b0b7147e3
{
 "confidenceScore": 83,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtcpf0130291r66o5ir8l5d9",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.78,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek3900mfr6zofm3erbdh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-28T08:42:58.994Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.563338,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000183",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-28T08:42:58.994Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 43.7% · UNDER 56.3%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-28 08:42Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000183

OU25 · UNDER · 56.3% · confidence 86 · reason: Market prices added
בוטל
Fair price
1.78
Market price
1.91
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
6.7 percentage points
Generated
Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC
Published
Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordFri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTCe59cf…d490
e59cfcd78b9d47cebace0c6b99b39ef424a37e19e46a5da5a11c3e9582f7d490
{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtcpwkcg01cdr60va68c25se",
 "edge": 0.067296,
 "fairOdds": 1.78,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek3900mfr6zofm3erbdh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-28T08:56:38.254Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.91,
 "modelProbability": 0.563338,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000183.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000183",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-28T08:56:38.254Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 43.7% · UNDER 56.3%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-28 08:56Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.91
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000183.v2

OU25 · OVER · 52.0% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.92
Market price
1.89
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
1.9 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTCff62e…36f3
ff62e629a0e16a1b07028efa7dd1d373c5993f4ef76c788fb908a90f3f2d36f3
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmteusdv100h3kz045fbnk2mi",
 "edge": 0.018681,
 "fairOdds": 1.92,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek3900mfr6zofm3erbdh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T20:48:46.586Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.89,
 "modelProbability": 0.52,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000183.v2.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000183.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T20:48:46.586Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 52.0% · UNDER 48.0%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 20:48Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.89
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000183.v2.v3

OU25 · UNDER · 56.7% · confidence 86 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.77
Market price
1.90
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
6.8 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTCbaad0…00de
baad0b22ce200d28dd80773d276debba6ec9d94762c0c2ebf294296e502000de
{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtewddcf00wlr6yd74wo14a8",
 "edge": 0.06784,
 "fairOdds": 1.77,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek3900mfr6zofm3erbdh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T21:31:46.213Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.9,
 "modelProbability": 0.566521,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000183.v2.v3.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000183.v2.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T21:31:46.213Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 43.3% · UNDER 56.7%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 21:31Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.90
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000183.v2.v3.v4

OU25 · OVER · 52.0% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.92
Market price
1.89
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
1.9 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC04944…0930
049441474c5579991f9f3feaff95f388ee7be17ea3fbf5520390ee6b27010930
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtezvtaq00hjl804dgr7oqcl",
 "edge": 0.018681,
 "fairOdds": 1.92,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek3900mfr6zofm3erbdh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T23:11:25.588Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.89,
 "modelProbability": 0.52,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000183.v2.v3.v4.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000183.v2.v3.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T23:11:25.588Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 52.0% · UNDER 48.0%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 23:11Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.89
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000183.v2.v3.v4.v5

OU25 · UNDER · 56.5% · confidence 86 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.77
Market price
1.90
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
6.7 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC31ddb…e201
31ddb4eb2174490e6239d38a9ae608a3a80fb6cd344459647496f5ecec72e201
{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtf2076b00wlr6c4s3xkimuj",
 "edge": 0.066814,
 "fairOdds": 1.77,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek3900mfr6zofm3erbdh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T00:09:36.630Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.9,
 "modelProbability": 0.565495,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000183.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000183.v2.v3.v4.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T00:09:36.630Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 43.5% · UNDER 56.5%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 00:09Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.90
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 7 · previous MQ-000183.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6

OU25 · OVER · 52.0% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.92
Market price
1.89
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
1.9 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC51ea3…71be
51ea3d4d58873487145a5f2dad682c45d3aaa6c52dc9d7c6de8b1eadb6d571be
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfcbt8f00h3jz0498iqpb7x",
 "edge": 0.018681,
 "fairOdds": 1.92,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek3900mfr6zofm3erbdh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T04:59:45.644Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.89,
 "modelProbability": 0.52,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000183.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000183.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T04:59:45.644Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 52.0% · UNDER 48.0%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 04:59Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.89
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 8 · previous MQ-000183.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7

OU25 · UNDER · 56.5% · confidence 86 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.77
Market price
1.90
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
6.7 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC53d03…2f18
53d03826a41bf1254f94431427dab36639619658a874e60c3205b4beb2b82f18
{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfebg6q00wlr6w0t4y2knqo",
 "edge": 0.066809,
 "fairOdds": 1.77,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek3900mfr6zofm3erbdh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T05:54:14.951Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.9,
 "modelProbability": 0.56549,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000183.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000183.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T05:54:14.951Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 43.5% · UNDER 56.5%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 05:54Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.90
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 9 · previous MQ-000183.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8

OU25 · UNDER · 55.3% · confidence 91 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.81
Market price
1.90
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
5.5 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTC055d0…8af1
055d0f3fb9f746bf4ae9fa7a9e1947d359769cfef8263d1ba8bc7bb637ef8af1
{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfsgav700j5r62vqyidf205",
 "edge": 0.054657,
 "fairOdds": 1.81,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek3900mfr6zofm3erbdh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T12:29:22.549Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.9,
 "modelProbability": 0.553338,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000183.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000183.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T12:29:22.549Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 44.7% · UNDER 55.3%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 12:29Z
Information cutoff
2026-08-30 12:29Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.90
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 10 · previous MQ-000183.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9

OU25 · UNDER · 52.2% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh
פגיעה
Fair price
1.92
Market price
1.90
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
2.4 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 18:14 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 18:14 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 18:14 UTC51337…3931
513372cada2cac3f2c8994833ae069faa505d15b58ad92b4dcc2714bb1973931
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtg4qcf40045r63ak9w3ktey",
 "edge": 0.023502,
 "fairOdds": 1.92,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek3900mfr6zofm3erbdh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T18:14:31.356Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.9,
 "modelProbability": 0.522183,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000183.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000183.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T18:14:31.356Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 47.8% · UNDER 52.2%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 18:14Z
Information cutoff
2026-08-30 18:14Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.90
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.

Prediction proof MQ-000183 — Atalanta v Bologna · WinPIQ