MQ-000185
Aston Villa v Arsenal · Premier League · Mon 31 Aug · 19:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.88
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC
- Published
- Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC
- Locked
- —
Publication recordFri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC5984d…33cc
{
"confidenceScore": 82,
"dataQualityScore": 35,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtcpf02m02apr66ojx2j64ud",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.88,
"featureVersion": "f0.1",
"fixtureId": "cmtcpek0v00efr6zo01ro0if3",
"generatedAt": "2026-08-28T08:42:58.994Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.530919,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
"predictionId": "MQ-000185",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-08-28T08:42:58.994Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 20.3% · DRAW 26.6% · AWAY 53.1%
- Model version
- ens_v0.1
- Feature version
- f0.1
- Calibration version
- iso_v1
- Calibration scope
- not recorded for this prediction
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-08-28 08:42Z
- Information cutoff
- not recorded for this prediction
- Data coverage
- not recorded for this prediction
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000185
- Fair price
- 1.88
- Market price
- 1.53
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 9 percentage points
- Generated
- Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC
- Published
- Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC
- Locked
- —
Publication recordFri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC1cdff…d859
{
"confidenceScore": 85,
"dataQualityScore": 50,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtcpwke501djr60v2ttpcy0y",
"edge": -0.090456,
"fairOdds": 1.88,
"featureVersion": "f0.1",
"fixtureId": "cmtcpek0v00efr6zo01ro0if3",
"generatedAt": "2026-08-28T08:56:38.254Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.53,
"modelProbability": 0.530919,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
"predictionId": "MQ-000185.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000185",
"publishedAt": "2026-08-28T08:56:38.254Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 20.3% · DRAW 26.6% · AWAY 53.1%
- Model version
- ens_v0.1
- Feature version
- f0.1
- Calibration version
- iso_v1
- Calibration scope
- not recorded for this prediction
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-08-28 08:56Z
- Information cutoff
- not recorded for this prediction
- Data coverage
- not recorded for this prediction
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- 1.53
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000185.v2
- Fair price
- 1.96
- Market price
- 1.50
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 12.6 percentage points
- Generated
- Sun 30 Aug · 09:56 UTC
- Published
- Sun 30 Aug · 09:56 UTC
- Locked
- —
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 09:56 UTC032ca…0eb4
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtfmypep00a7r6tk1gq9js2h",
"edge": -0.125844,
"fairOdds": 1.96,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtcpek0v00efr6zo01ro0if3",
"generatedAt": "2026-08-30T09:56:04.862Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.5,
"modelProbability": 0.510618,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.2",
"predictionId": "MQ-000185.v2.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000185.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-08-30T09:56:04.862Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 20.7% · DRAW 28.2% · AWAY 51.1%
- Model version
- ens_v0.2
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-08-30 09:56Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-08-30 09:56Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- 1.50
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 4 · previous MQ-000185.v2.v3
- Fair price
- 1.86
- Market price
- 1.51
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 9.4 percentage points
- Generated
- Sun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTC
- Published
- Sun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTC
- Locked
- —
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTC8de0c…d1a2
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtfsggkx00ktr62vj1b6wvkn",
"edge": -0.094037,
"fairOdds": 1.86,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtcpek0v00efr6zo01ro0if3",
"generatedAt": "2026-08-30T12:29:22.549Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.51,
"modelProbability": 0.537772,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000185.v2.v3.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000185.v2.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-08-30T12:29:22.549Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 19.1% · DRAW 27.2% · AWAY 53.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-08-30 12:29Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-08-30 12:29Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- 1.51
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.