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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000188

MQ-000188

Barcelona v Vallecano · La Liga · Mon 31 Aug · 19:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 74.6% · confidence 83
בוטל
Fair price
1.34
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC
Published
Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordFri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTCf1577…730c
f15779e3c0758acc9d2b8309fc702d5df6ae927329ff36537bd294bc6193730c
{
 "confidenceScore": 83,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtcpf04a02cjr66ou8tpaa5a",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.34,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2800irr6zou6owzhj3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-28T08:42:58.994Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.745714,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000188",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-28T08:42:58.994Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 74.6% · DRAW 17.1% · AWAY 8.3%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-28 08:42Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000188

1X2 · HOME · 74.6% · confidence 86 · reason: Market prices added
בוטל
Fair price
1.34
Market price
1.18
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
5.9 percentage points
Generated
Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC
Published
Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordFri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTCf1a05…8652
f1a0569c8b88bfe2d11c89a1f214e15b5bcf1accf678d7d9b9c7d133a6d38652
{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtcpwkfy01etr60v7xhy8x5u",
 "edge": -0.059381,
 "fairOdds": 1.34,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2800irr6zou6owzhj3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-28T08:56:38.254Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.18,
 "modelProbability": 0.745714,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000188.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000188",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-28T08:56:38.254Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 74.6% · DRAW 17.1% · AWAY 8.3%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-28 08:56Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.18
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000188.v2

1X2 · HOME · 77.6% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.29
Market price
1.16
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
4.7 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTC0f5d1…b67c
0f5d1c876cf994a2a45b27d6b833a982c1dfdf80661e55f9c590b2075ef9b67c
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmteusegq00ibkz0497wt5swm",
 "edge": -0.047138,
 "fairOdds": 1.29,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2800irr6zou6owzhj3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T20:48:46.586Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.16,
 "modelProbability": 0.775903,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000188.v2.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000188.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T20:48:46.586Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 77.6% · DRAW 9.0% · AWAY 13.4%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 20:48Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.16
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000188.v2.v3

1X2 · HOME · 74.6% · confidence 85 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.34
Market price
1.15
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
8.3 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC5fa76…a8ba
5fa76188301b4a8024d91e6b1980a292f247d2e896d69cb249c1f3468feba8ba
{
 "confidenceScore": 85,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtewdiqk00yzr6ydup95lhwy",
 "edge": -0.083201,
 "fairOdds": 1.34,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2800irr6zou6owzhj3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T21:31:46.213Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.15,
 "modelProbability": 0.745714,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000188.v2.v3.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000188.v2.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T21:31:46.213Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 74.6% · DRAW 17.1% · AWAY 8.3%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 21:31Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.15
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000188.v2.v3.v4

1X2 · HOME · 77.5% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.29
Market price
1.16
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
5.1 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC7f48c…64ef
7f48c3338932d4bab62fcd4f6c3f352b7e565fa901f7a0b72c5df4b4969d64ef
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtezvtw700irl8041ba6yrop",
 "edge": -0.050837,
 "fairOdds": 1.29,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2800irr6zou6owzhj3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T23:11:25.588Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.16,
 "modelProbability": 0.775445,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000188.v2.v3.v4.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000188.v2.v3.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T23:11:25.588Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 77.5% · DRAW 9.0% · AWAY 13.4%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 23:11Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.16
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000188.v2.v3.v4.v5

1X2 · HOME · 74.6% · confidence 86 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.34
Market price
1.16
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
8.1 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC7fba3…369d
7fba3af508f146729cbb12ecba730c881c5f6186900fcc220eae210b136c369d
{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtf20bv500yzr6c44ynk18fy",
 "edge": -0.080568,
 "fairOdds": 1.34,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2800irr6zou6owzhj3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T00:09:36.630Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.16,
 "modelProbability": 0.745714,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000188.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000188.v2.v3.v4.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T00:09:36.630Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 74.6% · DRAW 17.1% · AWAY 8.3%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 00:09Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.16
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 7 · previous MQ-000188.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6

1X2 · HOME · 77.5% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.29
Market price
1.16
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
5.1 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTCb5243…319e
b52436dba10b4db7b55e68dc203e7c3f29f8db2abdbaddad098b04e82c46319e
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfcbtw800ibjz04b6khchgu",
 "edge": -0.050744,
 "fairOdds": 1.29,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2800irr6zou6owzhj3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T04:59:45.644Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.16,
 "modelProbability": 0.775445,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000188.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000188.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T04:59:45.644Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 77.5% · DRAW 9.0% · AWAY 13.4%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 04:59Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.16
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 8 · previous MQ-000188.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7

1X2 · HOME · 74.6% · confidence 86 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.34
Market price
1.16
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
8.1 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC2079f…bc56
2079fcdad71e5db0bfedc907ed8103881c4c91e041fe5f022d5aad564570bc56
{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfebkup00yzr6w0fy88nz1r",
 "edge": -0.08091,
 "fairOdds": 1.34,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2800irr6zou6owzhj3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T05:54:14.951Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.16,
 "modelProbability": 0.745714,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000188.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000188.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T05:54:14.951Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 74.6% · DRAW 17.1% · AWAY 8.3%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 05:54Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.16
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 9 · previous MQ-000188.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8

1X2 · HOME · 75.9% · confidence 94 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.32
Market price
1.15
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
7.1 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTC64c18…af33
64c18241fd33be8b80a002f52936d9e89522dcecadc886f4ea68df92f4e7af33
{
 "confidenceScore": 94,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfsgjhv00ljr62vgf0ssm7r",
 "edge": -0.071043,
 "fairOdds": 1.32,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2800irr6zou6owzhj3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T12:29:22.549Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.15,
 "modelProbability": 0.759161,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000188.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000188.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T12:29:22.549Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 75.9% · DRAW 17.8% · AWAY 6.3%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 12:29Z
Information cutoff
2026-08-30 12:29Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.15
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 10 · previous MQ-000188.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9

1X2 · HOME · 75.9% · confidence 92 · reason: Market price update
פגיעה
Fair price
1.32
Market price
1.12
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
9.2 percentage points
Generated
Mon 31 Aug · 03:36 UTC
Published
Mon 31 Aug · 03:36 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordMon 31 Aug · 03:36 UTC37dc6…9e3d
37dc61a2bbfc917d9dd8b0d9d021fc44d4afe2c293f5903ac604d4b7bab59e3d
{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtgos5w1001dr6tjuxkju3vb",
 "edge": -0.09226,
 "fairOdds": 1.32,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2800irr6zou6owzhj3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-31T03:36:01.548Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.12,
 "modelProbability": 0.759161,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000188.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000188.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-31T03:36:01.548Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 75.9% · DRAW 17.8% · AWAY 6.3%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-31 03:36Z
Information cutoff
2026-08-31 03:36Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.12
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.