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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000189

MQ-000189

Barcelona v Vallecano · La Liga · Mon 31 Aug · 19:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

OU25 · OVER · 57.8% · confidence 83
בוטל
Fair price
1.73
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC
Published
Fri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordFri 28 Aug · 08:42 UTCfcf3e…954d
fcf3ee04dc332a51f269b247bc5ce5c24d9a55922144c3ab730299a53e6d954d
{
 "confidenceScore": 83,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtcpf04a02cjr66ou8tpaa5a",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.73,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2800irr6zou6owzhj3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-28T08:42:58.994Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.578061,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000189",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-28T08:42:58.994Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 57.8% · UNDER 42.2%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-28 08:42Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000189

OU25 · OVER · 57.8% · confidence 86 · reason: Market prices added
בוטל
Fair price
1.73
Market price
1.36
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
11.5 percentage points
Generated
Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC
Published
Fri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordFri 28 Aug · 08:56 UTC54e0d…46db
54e0dd07ce7a7f137becc86cedb333aed4914cd8fdb0db15579743d0668546db
{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtcpwkfy01etr60v7xhy8x5u",
 "edge": -0.114942,
 "fairOdds": 1.73,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2800irr6zou6owzhj3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-28T08:56:38.254Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.36,
 "modelProbability": 0.57806,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000189.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000189",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-28T08:56:38.254Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 57.8% · UNDER 42.2%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-28 08:56Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.36
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000189.v2

OU25 · OVER · 52.0% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.92
Market price
1.35
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
17.9 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTCd8588…3c6a
d8588ae22815bb4321c9da9920830f76b39eea3d2b89906c4a003565a7923c6a
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmteusegq00ibkz0497wt5swm",
 "edge": -0.178661,
 "fairOdds": 1.92,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2800irr6zou6owzhj3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T20:48:46.586Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.35,
 "modelProbability": 0.52,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000189.v2.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000189.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T20:48:46.586Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 52.0% · UNDER 48.0%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 20:48Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.35
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000189.v2.v3

OU25 · OVER · 57.6% · confidence 85 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.74
Market price
1.31
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
14.2 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC63216…4af0
63216c71ab4237527288ad707bd302021ddbee0adde2af3087609574034e4af0
{
 "confidenceScore": 85,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtewdiqk00yzr6ydup95lhwy",
 "edge": -0.141987,
 "fairOdds": 1.74,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2800irr6zou6owzhj3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T21:31:46.213Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.31,
 "modelProbability": 0.575685,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000189.v2.v3.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000189.v2.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T21:31:46.213Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 57.6% · UNDER 42.4%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 21:31Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.31
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000189.v2.v3.v4

OU25 · OVER · 52.0% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.92
Market price
1.31
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
19.8 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC8b3de…e9cb
8b3de116bd1b04204818ab0396689336ef92b6a5f8bfc8a1780921d6bd01e9cb
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtezvtw700irl8041ba6yrop",
 "edge": -0.197672,
 "fairOdds": 1.92,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2800irr6zou6owzhj3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T23:11:25.588Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.31,
 "modelProbability": 0.52,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000189.v2.v3.v4.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000189.v2.v3.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T23:11:25.588Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 52.0% · UNDER 48.0%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 23:11Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.31
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000189.v2.v3.v4.v5

OU25 · OVER · 57.3% · confidence 86 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.75
Market price
1.31
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
14.5 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC4ad61…f75a
4ad6146ee606de34d917772f0882ce872896e8c960bed78ed2dad894decef75a
{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtf20bv500yzr6c44ynk18fy",
 "edge": -0.144956,
 "fairOdds": 1.75,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2800irr6zou6owzhj3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T00:09:36.630Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.31,
 "modelProbability": 0.572716,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000189.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000189.v2.v3.v4.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T00:09:36.630Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 57.3% · UNDER 42.7%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 00:09Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.31
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 7 · previous MQ-000189.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6

OU25 · OVER · 52.0% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.92
Market price
1.31
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
19.8 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC17a27…2009
17a2793e522a4a5e7bd2a88e5e9a1851a5c3972a4faa3df0b51d207dfc492009
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 35,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfcbtw800ibjz04b6khchgu",
 "edge": -0.197672,
 "fairOdds": 1.92,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2800irr6zou6owzhj3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T04:59:45.644Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.31,
 "modelProbability": 0.52,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000189.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000189.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T04:59:45.644Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 52.0% · UNDER 48.0%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 04:59Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.31
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 8 · previous MQ-000189.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7

OU25 · OVER · 57.3% · confidence 86 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.75
Market price
1.31
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
14.5 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC2f8ff…27a4
2f8ffab3197afec2c5e19c54333b67285fe197c7223d91cc093a4141ae1f27a4
{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfebkup00yzr6w0fy88nz1r",
 "edge": -0.144974,
 "fairOdds": 1.75,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2800irr6zou6owzhj3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T05:54:14.951Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.31,
 "modelProbability": 0.572698,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000189.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000189.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T05:54:14.951Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 57.3% · UNDER 42.7%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 05:54Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.31
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 9 · previous MQ-000189.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8

OU25 · OVER · 59.8% · confidence 94 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.67
Market price
1.31
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
11.6 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTC3e94b…e5e3
3e94b6aa32d7b9c1139c2b24236a86cd2e60034c56fa903fff220e3cd701e5e3
{
 "confidenceScore": 94,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfsgjhv00ljr62vgf0ssm7r",
 "edge": -0.115644,
 "fairOdds": 1.67,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2800irr6zou6owzhj3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T12:29:22.549Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.31,
 "modelProbability": 0.59833,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000189.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000189.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T12:29:22.549Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 59.8% · UNDER 40.2%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 12:29Z
Information cutoff
2026-08-30 12:29Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.31
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 10 · previous MQ-000189.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9

OU25 · OVER · 61.3% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh
פגיעה
Fair price
1.63
Market price
1.31
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
10.1 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 18:14 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 18:14 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 18:14 UTCe8ee4…a83c
e8ee4970c2b3f689a04a60bc53b0e90029eeaf4ecdad82f64b677ccb00c1a83c
{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtg4qh8p005dr63aajirz5g8",
 "edge": -0.100647,
 "fairOdds": 1.63,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtcpek2800irr6zou6owzhj3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T18:14:31.356Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.31,
 "modelProbability": 0.613327,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000189.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000189.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T18:14:31.356Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 61.3% · UNDER 38.7%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 18:14Z
Information cutoff
2026-08-30 18:14Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.31
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.