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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000211

MQ-000211

Maccabi Tel Aviv v Maccabi Haifa · Israeli Premier League · Mon 31 Aug · 17:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 54.1% · confidence 78
בוטל
Fair price
1.85
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 03:25 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 03:25 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 03:25 UTC752ee…ed01
752ee5f19ac63c33a0e36f17714ec698df409df53a600bbe2b11e78e4976ed01
{
 "confidenceScore": 78,
 "dataQualityScore": 28,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtdtijv700gjr6oyirrirjvj",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.85,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtdicr2y004br66zwpbmrvch",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T03:25:30.514Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.541262,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000211",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T03:25:30.514Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 54.1% · DRAW 26.3% · AWAY 19.6%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 03:25Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H48_72
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000211

1X2 · HOME · 54.1% · confidence 81 · reason: IL1 odds loaded
בוטל
Fair price
1.85
Market price
1.73
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
2.3 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 03:26 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 03:26 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 03:26 UTCc3e8f…4322
c3e8f1bdef1baad9a5bc3dfb80cf660b4d061c78402f6a11e3f1070142974322
{
 "confidenceScore": 81,
 "dataQualityScore": 43,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtdtjk4a00f7r604e3zkxovn",
 "edge": 0.022832,
 "fairOdds": 1.85,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtdicr2y004br66zwpbmrvch",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T03:26:16.611Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.73,
 "modelProbability": 0.541262,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000211.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000211",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T03:26:16.611Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 54.1% · DRAW 26.3% · AWAY 19.6%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 03:26Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H48_72
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.73
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000211.v2

1X2 · HOME · 51.8% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.93
Market price
1.73
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
0 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 20:48 UTCf4d5c…2847
f4d5cd3461faef685770322758a81af371fa96983ab666114d454e5c81ca2847
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 23,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmteusd5v00ffkz0408gcw6jc",
 "edge": -0.000482,
 "fairOdds": 1.93,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtdicr2y004br66zwpbmrvch",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T20:48:46.586Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.73,
 "modelProbability": 0.517948,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000211.v2.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000211.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T20:48:46.586Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 51.8% · DRAW 20.5% · AWAY 27.7%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 20:48Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.73
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000211.v2.v3

1X2 · HOME · 54.1% · confidence 81 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.85
Market price
1.73
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
2.3 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 21:31 UTCd4425…d840
d44254e121f4a5222f1f74c5c912a88fdcb1afd6243a565d62c92e685706d840
{
 "confidenceScore": 81,
 "dataQualityScore": 43,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtewd6z600t9r6ydy145wkc7",
 "edge": 0.022832,
 "fairOdds": 1.85,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtdicr2y004br66zwpbmrvch",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T21:31:46.213Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.73,
 "modelProbability": 0.541262,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000211.v2.v3.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000211.v2.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T21:31:46.213Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 54.1% · DRAW 26.3% · AWAY 19.6%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 21:31Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.73
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000211.v2.v3.v4

1X2 · HOME · 51.8% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.93
Market price
1.73
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
0 percentage points
Generated
Sat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC
Published
Sat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSat 29 Aug · 23:11 UTC841cc…d6f6
841ccd448b0696c054f3152427ca6da4b3d47a4be10b1da172d311e47ca2d6f6
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 23,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtezvsod00fvl804irkb8zqz",
 "edge": -0.000482,
 "fairOdds": 1.93,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtdicr2y004br66zwpbmrvch",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T23:11:25.588Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.73,
 "modelProbability": 0.517948,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000211.v2.v3.v4.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000211.v2.v3.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-29T23:11:25.588Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 51.8% · DRAW 20.5% · AWAY 27.7%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-29 23:11Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.73
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000211.v2.v3.v4.v5

1X2 · HOME · 54.1% · confidence 81 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.85
Market price
1.73
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
2.3 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 00:09 UTC28dc5…8c9a
28dc54b75837c90c376ce58eaf210ce14016274fa7a59150f1093e98e2ad8c9a
{
 "confidenceScore": 81,
 "dataQualityScore": 43,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtf201e500t9r6c4a2bu9e53",
 "edge": 0.022832,
 "fairOdds": 1.85,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtdicr2y004br66zwpbmrvch",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T00:09:36.630Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.73,
 "modelProbability": 0.541262,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000211.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000211.v2.v3.v4.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T00:09:36.630Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 54.1% · DRAW 26.3% · AWAY 19.6%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 00:09Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.73
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 7 · previous MQ-000211.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6

1X2 · HOME · 51.8% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.93
Market price
1.67
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
1.9 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 04:59 UTC36e26…ec98
36e26186f0f9622105d55a401af70d8de8f9c5cb903f9f32a82867df5e66ec98
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 23,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfcbsfz00ffjz04w8kp9187",
 "edge": -0.019301,
 "fairOdds": 1.93,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtdicr2y004br66zwpbmrvch",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T04:59:45.644Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.67,
 "modelProbability": 0.517516,
 "modelVersion": "mock_v0",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000211.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000211.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T04:59:45.644Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 51.8% · DRAW 20.1% · AWAY 28.1%
Model version
mock_v0
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
none
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 04:59Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.67
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 8 · previous MQ-000211.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7

1X2 · HOME · 53.4% · confidence 81 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.87
Market price
1.67
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
0.3 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 05:54 UTC0761f…b16d
0761f89a8626b10e87bfd375f17bbf4bcedd257ca70569e6b62ed20c2364b16d
{
 "confidenceScore": 81,
 "dataQualityScore": 43,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfeba1o00t9r6w02ljxqu81",
 "edge": -0.002632,
 "fairOdds": 1.87,
 "featureVersion": "f0.1",
 "fixtureId": "cmtdicr2y004br66zwpbmrvch",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T05:54:14.951Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.67,
 "modelProbability": 0.534185,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.1",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000211.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000211.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T05:54:14.951Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 53.4% · DRAW 26.4% · AWAY 20.1%
Model version
ens_v0.1
Feature version
f0.1
Calibration version
iso_v1
Calibration scope
not recorded for this prediction
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 05:54Z
Information cutoff
not recorded for this prediction
Data coverage
not recorded for this prediction
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.67
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 9 · previous MQ-000211.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8

1X2 · HOME · 54.6% · confidence 85 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.83
Market price
1.67
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
1 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 09:56 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 09:56 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 09:56 UTC0909e…e40d
0909e20d334be05f27b880138ca385800e7d4f73a5380daf38b7c0943972e40d
{
 "confidenceScore": 85,
 "dataQualityScore": 58,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfmyhfw008pr6tk4li58wk4",
 "edge": 0.009636,
 "fairOdds": 1.83,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtdicr2y004br66zwpbmrvch",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T09:56:04.862Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.67,
 "modelProbability": 0.546453,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.2",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000211.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000211.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T09:56:04.862Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 54.6% · DRAW 25.7% · AWAY 19.6%
Model version
ens_v0.2
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 09:56Z
Information cutoff
2026-08-30 09:56Z
Data coverage
STANDARD
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.67
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 10 · previous MQ-000211.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9

1X2 · HOME · 52.9% · confidence 84 · reason: Model refresh
פגיעה
Fair price
1.89
Market price
1.67
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
0.8 percentage points
Generated
Sun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTC
Published
Sun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTC
Locked
—
Publication recordSun 30 Aug · 12:29 UTC7e7a4…4618
7e7a47fb58e1dd49da0ddb245e1027b062e39d2b0a5e0dc5c1cefedadcf24618
{
 "confidenceScore": 84,
 "dataQualityScore": 58,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtfsg3ka00gtr62vy0bzlmxu",
 "edge": -0.007549,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtdicr2y004br66zwpbmrvch",
 "generatedAt": "2026-08-30T12:29:22.549Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.67,
 "modelProbability": 0.529268,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000211.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9.v10",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000211.v2.v3.v4.v5.v6.v7.v8.v9",
 "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T12:29:22.549Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 52.9% · DRAW 26.8% · AWAY 20.3%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-08-30 12:29Z
Information cutoff
2026-08-30 12:29Z
Data coverage
STANDARD
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
1.67
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.