MQ-000217
Hapoel Tel Aviv v Beitar Jerusalem · Israeli Premier League · Thu 3 Sept · 17:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.66
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:40 UTC
- Published
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:40 UTC
- Locked
- —
Publication recordTue 1 Sept · 09:40 UTCe1b3f…1d6c
{
"confidenceScore": 75,
"dataQualityScore": 53,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtih8p1c0017r6fs3qckr4sq",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 2.66,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtdicr32004nr66zb524ne5l",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:40:38.859Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.376575,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000217",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-01T09:40:38.859Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 34.6% · DRAW 27.8% · AWAY 37.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-01 09:40Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-01 09:40Z
- Data coverage
- STANDARD
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000217
- Fair price
- 2.66
- Market price
- 2.40
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 0.2 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 2 Sept · 00:10 UTC
- Published
- Wed 2 Sept · 00:10 UTC
- Locked
- —
Publication recordWed 2 Sept · 00:10 UTC04ef8…db5d
{
"confidenceScore": 75,
"dataQualityScore": 53,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtjcbair0017r6wc0nb87s57",
"edge": 0.001826,
"fairOdds": 2.66,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtdicr32004nr66zb524ne5l",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-02T00:10:28.542Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.4,
"modelProbability": 0.376575,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000217.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000217",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-02T00:10:28.542Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 34.6% · DRAW 27.8% · AWAY 37.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-02 00:10Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-02 00:10Z
- Data coverage
- STANDARD
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- 2.40
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000217.v2
- Fair price
- 2.70
- Market price
- 2.55
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 1.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 2 Sept · 06:11 UTC
- Published
- Wed 2 Sept · 06:11 UTC
- Locked
- —
Publication recordWed 2 Sept · 06:11 UTCd4926…e6c8
{
"confidenceScore": 74,
"dataQualityScore": 53,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtjp6zvz0007r6k24ycppkjj",
"edge": 0.017788,
"fairOdds": 2.7,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtdicr32004nr66zb524ne5l",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-02T06:11:04.908Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.55,
"modelProbability": 0.370493,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000217.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000217.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-02T06:11:04.908Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 37.0% · DRAW 27.2% · AWAY 35.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-02 06:11Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-02 06:11Z
- Data coverage
- STANDARD
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- 2.55
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 4 · previous MQ-000217.v3
- Fair price
- 2.70
- Market price
- 2.30
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 2.1 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 3 Sept · 16:48 UTC
- Published
- Thu 3 Sept · 16:48 UTC
- Locked
- —
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 3 Sept · 16:48 UTCc58b7…3e9e
{
"confidenceScore": 65,
"dataQualityScore": 53,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtlreaq30002r6d20tiukdyg",
"edge": -0.020999,
"fairOdds": 2.7,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtdicr32004nr66zb524ne5l",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-03T16:48:19.781Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.3,
"modelProbability": 0.370493,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000217.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000217.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-03T16:48:19.781Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 37.0% · DRAW 27.2% · AWAY 35.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-03 16:48Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-03 16:48Z
- Data coverage
- STANDARD
- Lead time
- H0_1
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.30
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.