MQ-000223
Sociedad v Celta · La Liga · Thu 3 Sept · 19:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.13
- Market price
- 1.97
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 1.2 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:40 UTC
- Published
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:40 UTC
- Locked
- Thu 3 Sept · 18:46 UTC
Publication recordTue 1 Sept · 09:40 UTCc76b5…b076
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtih917d004vr6fszgqqtmgm",
"edge": -0.01156,
"fairOdds": 2.13,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtcpek2900ixr6zol857urmu",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:40:38.859Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.97,
"modelProbability": 0.468787,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000223",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-01T09:40:38.859Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordThu 3 Sept · 18:46 UTC5ef85…1731
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtih917d004vr6fszgqqtmgm",
"edge": -0.01156,
"fairOdds": 2.13,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtcpek2900ixr6zol857urmu",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:40:38.859Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.97,
"modelProbability": 0.468787,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000223",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-03T18:46:35.421Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 46.9% · DRAW 27.6% · AWAY 25.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-01 09:40Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-01 09:40Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- 1.97
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000223
- Fair price
- 2.07
- Market price
- 1.95
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 0.5 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 1 Sept · 15:18 UTC
- Published
- Tue 1 Sept · 15:18 UTC
- Locked
- Thu 3 Sept · 18:46 UTC
Publication recordTue 1 Sept · 15:18 UTCed443…3ef8
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtitawcu000jr635y7y0wtkg",
"edge": -0.004894,
"fairOdds": 2.07,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtcpek2900ixr6zol857urmu",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T15:18:11.630Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.95,
"modelProbability": 0.482266,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000223.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000223",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-01T15:18:11.630Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordThu 3 Sept · 18:46 UTCb0038…d749
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtitawcu000jr635y7y0wtkg",
"edge": -0.004894,
"fairOdds": 2.07,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtcpek2900ixr6zol857urmu",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T15:18:11.630Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.95,
"modelProbability": 0.482266,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000223.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000223",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-03T18:46:35.421Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 48.2% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 24.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-01 15:18Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-01 15:18Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- 1.95
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000223.v2
- Fair price
- 2.07
- Market price
- 1.85
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 3.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 3 Sept · 16:48 UTC
- Published
- Thu 3 Sept · 16:48 UTC
- Locked
- Thu 3 Sept · 18:46 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 3 Sept · 16:48 UTCb7acb…9937
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtlreiji0022r6d2rm9zvmke",
"edge": -0.033362,
"fairOdds": 2.07,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtcpek2900ixr6zol857urmu",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-03T16:48:19.781Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.85,
"modelProbability": 0.482266,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000223.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000223.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-03T16:48:19.781Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordThu 3 Sept · 18:46 UTCc83be…662a
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtlreiji0022r6d2rm9zvmke",
"edge": -0.033362,
"fairOdds": 2.07,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtcpek2900ixr6zol857urmu",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-03T16:48:19.781Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.85,
"modelProbability": 0.482266,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000223.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000223.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-03T18:46:35.421Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 48.2% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 24.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-03 16:48Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-03 16:48Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.85
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.