PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000236
MQ-000236
Ipswich v Liverpool · Premier League · Fri 4 Sept · 19:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
OU25 · OVER · 69.9% · confidence 84
- Fair price
- 1.43
- Market price
- 1.49
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 6.6 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
- Published
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
- Locked
- Fri 4 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Publication recordTue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC1fe31…e42c
1fe315853350372c1c0b932995af9a7b5cd90bf85ac7864e63a6818125c2e42c
{
"confidenceScore": 84,
"dataQualityScore": 62,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtihwgv2005pr6mlv3ijt9en",
"edge": 0.065513,
"fairOdds": 1.43,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtcpek0x00elr6zoz3wm035r",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.49,
"modelProbability": 0.69942,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000236",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordFri 4 Sept · 17:02 UTC4cc2d…5eba
4cc2dda51eeeb6564723977aecfa86e2621d8403ccd044d17b34a481cac65eba
{
"confidenceScore": 84,
"dataQualityScore": 62,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtihwgv2005pr6mlv3ijt9en",
"edge": 0.065513,
"fairOdds": 1.43,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtcpek0x00elr6zoz3wm035r",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.49,
"modelProbability": 0.69942,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000236",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-04T17:02:03.599Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 69.9% · UNDER 30.1%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-01 09:58Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-01 09:58Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- 1.49
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000236
OU25 · OVER · 69.8% · confidence 83 · reason: Market price update
- Fair price
- 1.43
- Market price
- 1.44
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 4.4 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 3 Sept · 16:48 UTC
- Published
- Thu 3 Sept · 16:48 UTC
- Locked
- Fri 4 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 3 Sept · 16:48 UTC26a47…8d85
26a477e328a9757a90960fda680f6332c194d13b50a19b3132ef013c32708d85
{
"confidenceScore": 83,
"dataQualityScore": 62,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtlreudn003er6d2zcko1o4v",
"edge": 0.043717,
"fairOdds": 1.43,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtcpek0x00elr6zoz3wm035r",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-03T16:48:19.781Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.44,
"modelProbability": 0.698393,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000236.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000236",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-03T16:48:19.781Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordFri 4 Sept · 17:02 UTC86a78…366b
86a783d396784a553a3207285c151460a1b59743d018d9f55d978805da23366b
{
"confidenceScore": 83,
"dataQualityScore": 62,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtlreudn003er6d2zcko1o4v",
"edge": 0.043717,
"fairOdds": 1.43,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtcpek0x00elr6zoz3wm035r",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-03T16:48:19.781Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.44,
"modelProbability": 0.698393,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000236.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000236",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-04T17:02:03.599Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 69.8% · UNDER 30.2%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-03 16:48Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-03 16:48Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.44
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000236.v2
OU25 · OVER · 69.8% · confidence 83 · reason: Market price update
- Fair price
- 1.43
- Market price
- 1.37
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 0.7 percentage points
- Generated
- Fri 4 Sept · 06:27 UTC
- Published
- Fri 4 Sept · 06:27 UTC
- Locked
- Fri 4 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 4 Sept · 06:27 UTCa7863…1dba
a78631f4ee4972d93dda41b849453a3451845c51986b2d30afd822c9b8971dba
{
"confidenceScore": 83,
"dataQualityScore": 62,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtmko5300018r6goujzz9gri",
"edge": 0.006695,
"fairOdds": 1.43,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtcpek0x00elr6zoz3wm035r",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-04T06:27:23.222Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.37,
"modelProbability": 0.698136,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000236.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000236.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-04T06:27:23.222Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordFri 4 Sept · 17:02 UTC5e2f7…84e4
5e2f748c12350cf1244628f809c0823320fc78c35f2629b415c7876eeb4084e4
{
"confidenceScore": 83,
"dataQualityScore": 62,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtmko5300018r6goujzz9gri",
"edge": 0.006695,
"fairOdds": 1.43,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtcpek0x00elr6zoz3wm035r",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-04T06:27:23.222Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.37,
"modelProbability": 0.698136,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000236.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000236.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-04T17:02:03.599Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 69.8% · UNDER 30.2%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-04 06:27Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-04 06:27Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H12_24
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.37
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 4 · previous MQ-000236.v3
OU25 · OVER · 69.8% · confidence 83 · reason: Market price update
- Fair price
- 1.43
- Market price
- 1.41
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 2.7 percentage points
- Generated
- Fri 4 Sept · 12:26 UTC
- Published
- Fri 4 Sept · 12:26 UTC
- Locked
- Fri 4 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 4 Sept · 12:26 UTC32745…6225
327457a2fc988e8380e75c2339d999fc6ddacafa12aca45feb777d6e33bb6225
{
"confidenceScore": 83,
"dataQualityScore": 62,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtmxhljd001sr6if6rm1p1s6",
"edge": 0.027462,
"fairOdds": 1.43,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtcpek0x00elr6zoz3wm035r",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-04T12:26:17.825Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.41,
"modelProbability": 0.698023,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000236.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000236.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-04T12:26:17.825Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordFri 4 Sept · 17:02 UTC37edd…a1f4
37edd51680b93d89bbd6aad64f7b695a61792efa70c588d3e60e3914a752a1f4
{
"confidenceScore": 83,
"dataQualityScore": 62,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtmxhljd001sr6if6rm1p1s6",
"edge": 0.027462,
"fairOdds": 1.43,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtcpek0x00elr6zoz3wm035r",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-04T12:26:17.825Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.41,
"modelProbability": 0.698023,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000236.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000236.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-04T17:02:03.599Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 69.8% · UNDER 30.2%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-04 12:26Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-04 12:26Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H6_12
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.41
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.