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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000248

MQ-000248

Fiorentina v Torino · Serie A · Sat 5 Sept · 13:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

OU25 · OVER · 50.0% · confidence 93
בוטל
Fair price
2.00
Market price
2.13
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
5.8 percentage points
Generated
Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
Published
Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
Locked
Sat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC
Publication recordTue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC4af74…bacf
4af743e98dbf5af08d36b2b568b358a23e6d4ece32660ed06d873f24dc81bacf
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtihx09f00cjr6mlqfwn9p7m",
 "edge": 0.057828,
 "fairOdds": 2,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmteisz4t00doie045fz6006b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2.13,
 "modelProbability": 0.500236,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000248",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordSat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTCd5077…d561
d50771c4fcf2a13e59e9ab82d68f0b31a6b2ec184ca1543468594fe7fc92d561
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtihx09f00cjr6mlqfwn9p7m",
 "edge": 0.057828,
 "fairOdds": 2,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmteisz4t00doie045fz6006b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2.13,
 "modelProbability": 0.500236,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000248",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T12:02:06.009Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 50.0% · UNDER 50.0%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-01 09:58Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-01 09:58Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
2.13
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000248

OU25 · UNDER · 50.0% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.00
Market price
1.70
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
5.5 percentage points
Generated
Thu 3 Sept · 21:39 UTC
Published
Thu 3 Sept · 21:39 UTC
Locked
Sat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 3 Sept · 21:39 UTCfa0ea…5cf3
fa0ea970220f77f1f98971e53da5feddd52379251f3ba62e4a161f320dd65cf3
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtm1t9du0028r6qopk5vvf2t",
 "edge": -0.054971,
 "fairOdds": 2,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmteisz4t00doie045fz6006b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-03T21:39:26.336Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.7,
 "modelProbability": 0.500003,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000248.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000248",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-03T21:39:26.336Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}
Lock recordSat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTCb7074…355c
b7074dcee496833314289d560b16c8829b14d51be600222659c1f4696c00355c
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtm1t9du0028r6qopk5vvf2t",
 "edge": -0.054971,
 "fairOdds": 2,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmteisz4t00doie045fz6006b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-03T21:39:26.336Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.7,
 "modelProbability": 0.500003,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000248.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000248",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T12:02:06.009Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 50.0% · UNDER 50.0%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-03 21:39Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-03 21:39Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.70
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000248.v2

OU25 · UNDER · 50.4% · confidence 93 · reason: Market price update
בוטל
Fair price
1.99
Market price
1.77
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
3.3 percentage points
Generated
Sat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC
Published
Sat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC
Locked
Sat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTCd7aa4…c938
d7aa4cf1bcaeaeed5c3e76efa76b0b364ca34f443d67188ed45e27fc0704c938
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtntzhdl0008r6q9hhjb877a",
 "edge": -0.032891,
 "fairOdds": 1.99,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmteisz4t00doie045fz6006b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.77,
 "modelProbability": 0.503758,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000248.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000248.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}
Lock recordSat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC0a2ef…c3cf
0a2ef8de85a9f90719726503dc77e048e0962cc4abd11c990aa594153832c3cf
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtntzhdl0008r6q9hhjb877a",
 "edge": -0.032891,
 "fairOdds": 1.99,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmteisz4t00doie045fz6006b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.77,
 "modelProbability": 0.503758,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000248.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000248.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T12:02:06.009Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 49.6% · UNDER 50.4%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-05 03:36Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-05 03:36Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H6_12
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.77
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000248.v3

OU25 · UNDER · 50.5% · confidence 96 · reason: Market price update
החטאה
Fair price
1.98
Market price
1.84
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
1.1 percentage points
Generated
Sat 5 Sept · 10:29 UTC
Published
Sat 5 Sept · 10:29 UTC
Locked
Sat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 5 Sept · 10:29 UTCb0020…6ce0
b0020bb080dae123ba47c26e02d193173fd24b5eb889bf69925423fbac546ce0
{
 "confidenceScore": 96,
 "dataQualityScore": 95,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmto8q866000cjm0464vapxpf",
 "edge": -0.010759,
 "fairOdds": 1.98,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmteisz4t00doie045fz6006b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T10:29:03.142Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.84,
 "modelProbability": 0.50503,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000248.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000248.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T10:29:03.142Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}
Lock recordSat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC71889…6695
718897b41cdb32adb5b8b0c7c3ead3c4ad8fc6c6265fa169fbc69246a7f36695
{
 "confidenceScore": 96,
 "dataQualityScore": 95,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmto8q866000cjm0464vapxpf",
 "edge": -0.010759,
 "fairOdds": 1.98,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmteisz4t00doie045fz6006b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T10:29:03.142Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.84,
 "modelProbability": 0.50503,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000248.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000248.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T12:02:06.009Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 49.5% · UNDER 50.5%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-05 10:29Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-05 10:29Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H1_6
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.84
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.