MQ-000250
Hoffenheim v Dortmund · Bundesliga · Sat 5 Sept · 13:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.06
- Market price
- 2.22
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 6 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
- Published
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC
Publication recordTue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC2be88…a542
{
"confidenceScore": 84,
"dataQualityScore": 70,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtihx4nz00e1r6mlnnrcdstd",
"edge": 0.060478,
"fairOdds": 2.06,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmteit0cs00ewie04tbdskvw3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.22,
"modelProbability": 0.485099,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000250",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordSat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC4a629…355a
{
"confidenceScore": 84,
"dataQualityScore": 70,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtihx4nz00e1r6mlnnrcdstd",
"edge": 0.060478,
"fairOdds": 2.06,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmteit0cs00ewie04tbdskvw3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.22,
"modelProbability": 0.485099,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000250",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-05T12:02:06.009Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 26.0% · DRAW 25.5% · AWAY 48.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-01 09:58Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-01 09:58Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- 2.22
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000250
- Fair price
- 2.10
- Market price
- 2.43
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 8.5 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 5 Sept · 06:06 UTC
- Published
- Sat 5 Sept · 06:06 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 5 Sept · 06:06 UTCe32f9…c9e9
{
"confidenceScore": 85,
"dataQualityScore": 70,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtnzdeta000er6cnxp3k8n1l",
"edge": 0.084757,
"fairOdds": 2.1,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmteit0cs00ewie04tbdskvw3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-05T06:06:57.530Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.43,
"modelProbability": 0.476978,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000250.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000250",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-05T06:06:57.530Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordSat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC6992d…11bf
{
"confidenceScore": 85,
"dataQualityScore": 70,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtnzdeta000er6cnxp3k8n1l",
"edge": 0.084757,
"fairOdds": 2.1,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmteit0cs00ewie04tbdskvw3",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-05T06:06:57.530Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.43,
"modelProbability": 0.476978,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000250.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000250",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-05T12:02:06.009Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 27.3% · DRAW 25.0% · AWAY 47.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-05 06:06Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-05 06:06Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H6_12
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.43
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.