MQ-000256
Leverkusen v Union Berlin · Bundesliga · Sat 5 Sept · 13:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.69
- Market price
- 1.44
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 6.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
- Published
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC
Publication recordTue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTCf0ff1…f1b4
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtihxfv800hjr6mlzdsm2zl6",
"edge": -0.062885,
"fairOdds": 1.69,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmteit0g900f2ie043t0t8kxv",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.44,
"modelProbability": 0.591718,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000256",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC93c32…6994
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtihxfv800hjr6mlzdsm2zl6",
"edge": -0.062885,
"fairOdds": 1.69,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmteit0g900f2ie043t0t8kxv",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.44,
"modelProbability": 0.591718,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000256",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-05T12:02:06.009Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 59.2% · DRAW 21.0% · AWAY 19.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-01 09:58Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-01 09:58Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- 1.44
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000256
- Fair price
- 1.64
- Market price
- 1.45
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 4.5 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 5 Sept · 06:06 UTC
- Published
- Sat 5 Sept · 06:06 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 5 Sept · 06:06 UTC24091…c769
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtnzdn0c001sr6cnejgezcya",
"edge": -0.044579,
"fairOdds": 1.64,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmteit0g900f2ie043t0t8kxv",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-05T06:06:57.530Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.45,
"modelProbability": 0.611569,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000256.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000256",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-05T06:06:57.530Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC5d58f…21ad
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtnzdn0c001sr6cnejgezcya",
"edge": -0.044579,
"fairOdds": 1.64,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmteit0g900f2ie043t0t8kxv",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-05T06:06:57.530Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.45,
"modelProbability": 0.611569,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000256.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000256",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-05T12:02:06.009Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 61.2% · DRAW 21.7% · AWAY 17.2%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-05 06:06Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-05 06:06Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H6_12
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.45
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000256.v2
- Fair price
- 1.64
- Market price
- 1.38
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 8 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 5 Sept · 12:07 UTC
- Published
- Sat 5 Sept · 12:07 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 5 Sept · 12:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 5 Sept · 12:07 UTCf9dcb…3557
{
"confidenceScore": 96,
"dataQualityScore": 95,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtoc9i4h0010r6xco7a0o8wq",
"edge": -0.079539,
"fairOdds": 1.64,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmteit0g900f2ie043t0t8kxv",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-05T12:07:45.469Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.38,
"modelProbability": 0.611569,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000256.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000256.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-05T12:07:45.469Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 5 Sept · 12:32 UTC8150e…8b89
{
"confidenceScore": 96,
"dataQualityScore": 95,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtoc9i4h0010r6xco7a0o8wq",
"edge": -0.079539,
"fairOdds": 1.64,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmteit0g900f2ie043t0t8kxv",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-05T12:07:45.469Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.38,
"modelProbability": 0.611569,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000256.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000256.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-05T12:32:04.754Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 61.2% · DRAW 21.7% · AWAY 17.2%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-05 12:07Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-05 12:07Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.38
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.