PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000262

MQ-000262

Nott'm Forest v Tottenham · Premier League · Sat 5 Sept · 14:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

OU25 · OVER · 54.1% · confidence 93

בוטל

Fair price: 1.85
Market price: 2.00
Probability gap: 6.7 percentage points
Generated: Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
Published: Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
Locked: Sat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC

Publication recordTue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTCc8405…e167

c8405c71b3376408b72594d79b30702423312e776a802ea13989b21d5a3be167

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtihxpe400khr6mlllvjkqhn",
 "edge": 0.067423,
 "fairOdds": 1.85,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmteisuin009oie04g29jmnsi",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2,
 "modelProbability": 0.541107,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000262",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC6f182…874f

6f1829a449bbd1638535f6b6d712924b799fe14a275939bec0346e540655874f

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtihxpe400khr6mlllvjkqhn",
 "edge": 0.067423,
 "fairOdds": 1.85,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmteisuin009oie04g29jmnsi",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2,
 "modelProbability": 0.541107,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000262",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T12:02:06.009Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 54.1% · UNDER 45.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-01 09:58Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-01 09:58Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock: 2.00
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000262

OU25 · OVER · 54.1% · confidence 93 · reason: Market price update

בוטל

Fair price: 1.85
Market price: 1.91
Probability gap: 4.5 percentage points
Generated: Thu 3 Sept · 16:48 UTC
Published: Thu 3 Sept · 16:48 UTC
Locked: Sat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 3 Sept · 16:48 UTC36fc1…0c59

36fc14cd35ab7363930cd769609b8e6d243504dde79b54f92b68ad472e9a0c59

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtlrfd8o0060r6d2j1kggxkw",
 "edge": 0.04505,
 "fairOdds": 1.85,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmteisuin009oie04g29jmnsi",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-03T16:48:19.781Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.91,
 "modelProbability": 0.541092,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000262.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000262",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-03T16:48:19.781Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC4972a…636d

4972a100e166588b831d6790b2a18fa47e1fca03447a581458ca3415dbe3636d

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtlrfd8o0060r6d2j1kggxkw",
 "edge": 0.04505,
 "fairOdds": 1.85,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmteisuin009oie04g29jmnsi",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-03T16:48:19.781Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.91,
 "modelProbability": 0.541092,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000262.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000262",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T12:02:06.009Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 54.1% · UNDER 45.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-03 16:48Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-03 16:48Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.91
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000262.v2

OU25 · OVER · 53.1% · confidence 93 · reason: Market price update

בוטל

Fair price: 1.88
Market price: 1.85
Probability gap: 1.8 percentage points
Generated: Sat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC
Published: Sat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC
Locked: Sat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTCe2238…c4af

e223804ec5cfd49491defa1b9b021cb3048420299c77ca275b3295822876c4af

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtnu01sg0026r6q9397dwbvp",
 "edge": 0.018284,
 "fairOdds": 1.88,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmteisuin009oie04g29jmnsi",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.85,
 "modelProbability": 0.531442,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000262.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000262.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC6eb90…9632

6eb90ce1d25a62619e925f81201f01000e3cbd5dec041f6088b9c965d85b9632

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtnu01sg0026r6q9397dwbvp",
 "edge": 0.018284,
 "fairOdds": 1.88,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmteisuin009oie04g29jmnsi",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.85,
 "modelProbability": 0.531442,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000262.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000262.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T12:02:06.009Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 53.1% · UNDER 46.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-05 03:36Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-05 03:36Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H6_12
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.85
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000262.v3

OU25 · OVER · 53.2% · confidence 96 · reason: Market price update

החטאה

Fair price: 1.88
Market price: 1.78
Probability gap: 0.3 percentage points
Generated: Sat 5 Sept · 12:07 UTC
Published: Sat 5 Sept · 12:07 UTC
Locked: Sat 5 Sept · 12:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 5 Sept · 12:07 UTC61fe2…5621

61fe2e50adcf94412535cc12061a02c425b624cf33422a1c5e60c105b0725621

{
 "confidenceScore": 96,
 "dataQualityScore": 95,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtoc9qyh0020r6xcxnmvynce",
 "edge": -0.003172,
 "fairOdds": 1.88,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmteisuin009oie04g29jmnsi",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T12:07:45.469Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.78,
 "modelProbability": 0.532076,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000262.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000262.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T12:07:45.469Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSat 5 Sept · 12:32 UTCc695f…9488

c695f6ebd122dce5bfd6883f152e37f7dafab398a9032a4dec86b4f11f129488

{
 "confidenceScore": 96,
 "dataQualityScore": 95,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtoc9qyh0020r6xcxnmvynce",
 "edge": -0.003172,
 "fairOdds": 1.88,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmteisuin009oie04g29jmnsi",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T12:07:45.469Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.78,
 "modelProbability": 0.532076,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000262.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000262.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T12:32:04.754Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 53.2% · UNDER 46.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-05 12:07Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-05 12:07Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H1_6
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.78
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.