MQ-000274
Ath Bilbao v Ath Madrid · La Liga · Sat 5 Sept · 14:15 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.51
- Market price
- 2.86
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 6.6 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
- Published
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC
Publication recordTue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC077d3…dd3d
{
"confidenceScore": 84,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtihy9vx00rnr6mldoebk8ri",
"edge": 0.066291,
"fairOdds": 2.51,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmteisx3l00c0ie04zxgw2n7e",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.86,
"modelProbability": 0.397893,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000274",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC33192…3864
{
"confidenceScore": 84,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtihy9vx00rnr6mldoebk8ri",
"edge": 0.066291,
"fairOdds": 2.51,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmteisx3l00c0ie04zxgw2n7e",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.86,
"modelProbability": 0.397893,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000274",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-05T12:02:06.009Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-01 09:58Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-01 09:58Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- 2.86
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000274
- Fair price
- 2.51
- Market price
- 3.09
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 9 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 3 Sept · 21:39 UTC
- Published
- Thu 3 Sept · 21:39 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 3 Sept · 21:39 UTC0b1cd…8e4c
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtm1tzh4004ir6qorqw8ykb3",
"edge": 0.089665,
"fairOdds": 2.51,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmteisx3l00c0ie04zxgw2n7e",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-03T21:39:26.336Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 3.09,
"modelProbability": 0.397893,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000274.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000274",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-03T21:39:26.336Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 5 Sept · 12:02 UTC5eb7f…d0c3
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtm1tzh4004ir6qorqw8ykb3",
"edge": 0.089665,
"fairOdds": 2.51,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmteisx3l00c0ie04zxgw2n7e",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-03T21:39:26.336Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 3.09,
"modelProbability": 0.397893,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000274.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000274",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-05T12:02:06.009Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-03 21:39Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-03 21:39Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 3.09
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.