MQ-000283
Hull v Aston Villa · Premier League · Sat 5 Sept · 16:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.92
- Market price
- 4.15
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 29.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
- Published
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 5 Sept · 14:32 UTC
Publication recordTue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC97dbf…37fe
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 32,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtihyop800wbr6mlo6atldxw",
"edge": 0.292508,
"fairOdds": 1.92,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmteisv0400aiie04act8k6ls",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 4.15,
"modelProbability": 0.521451,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000283",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 5 Sept · 14:32 UTC4dee5…1f90
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 32,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtihyop800wbr6mlo6atldxw",
"edge": 0.292508,
"fairOdds": 1.92,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmteisv0400aiie04act8k6ls",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 4.15,
"modelProbability": 0.521451,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000283",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-05T14:32:25.416Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 52.1% · DRAW 27.9% · AWAY 20.0%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-01 09:58Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-01 09:58Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- 4.15
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000283
- Fair price
- 1.96
- Market price
- 4.19
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 28.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 5 Sept · 06:06 UTC
- Published
- Sat 5 Sept · 06:06 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 5 Sept · 14:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 5 Sept · 06:06 UTCc2f47…7fb1
{
"confidenceScore": 72,
"dataQualityScore": 32,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtnzel5q005sr6cnaj9tz3h7",
"edge": 0.282968,
"fairOdds": 1.96,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmteisv0400aiie04act8k6ls",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-05T06:06:57.530Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 4.19,
"modelProbability": 0.510212,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000283.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000283",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-05T06:06:57.530Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 5 Sept · 14:32 UTCf4920…5860
{
"confidenceScore": 72,
"dataQualityScore": 32,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtnzel5q005sr6cnaj9tz3h7",
"edge": 0.282968,
"fairOdds": 1.96,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmteisv0400aiie04act8k6ls",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-05T06:06:57.530Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 4.19,
"modelProbability": 0.510212,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000283.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000283",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-05T14:32:25.416Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 51.0% · DRAW 28.5% · AWAY 20.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-05 06:06Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-05 06:06Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H6_12
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 4.19
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.