MQ-000301
Everton v Man United · Premier League · Sun 6 Sept · 13:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.45
- Market price
- 2.23
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 1.7 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
- Published
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 6 Sept · 11:32 UTC
Publication recordTue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTCa52a7…3da9
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 70,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtihzm6e016lr6ml55wpnbxe",
"edge": -0.01685,
"fairOdds": 2.45,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtf97spb001ar68x80o4mx2o",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.23,
"modelProbability": 0.408253,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000301",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordSun 6 Sept · 11:32 UTCbe03c…22d4
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 70,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtihzm6e016lr6ml55wpnbxe",
"edge": -0.01685,
"fairOdds": 2.45,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtf97spb001ar68x80o4mx2o",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.23,
"modelProbability": 0.408253,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000301",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-06T11:32:05.761Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 29.1% · DRAW 30.1% · AWAY 40.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-01 09:58Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-01 09:58Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- 2.23
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000301
- Fair price
- 2.50
- Market price
- 2.13
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 4.7 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 3 Sept · 16:48 UTC
- Published
- Thu 3 Sept · 16:48 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 6 Sept · 11:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 3 Sept · 16:48 UTC2e4fa…119d
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtlrgcuk00bgr6d2xicminuo",
"edge": -0.046826,
"fairOdds": 2.5,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtf97spb001ar68x80o4mx2o",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-03T16:48:19.781Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.13,
"modelProbability": 0.400625,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000301.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000301",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-03T16:48:19.781Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordSun 6 Sept · 11:32 UTCd622d…a285
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtlrgcuk00bgr6d2xicminuo",
"edge": -0.046826,
"fairOdds": 2.5,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtf97spb001ar68x80o4mx2o",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-03T16:48:19.781Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.13,
"modelProbability": 0.400625,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000301.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000301",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-06T11:32:05.761Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 30.4% · DRAW 29.5% · AWAY 40.1%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-03 16:48Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-03 16:48Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.13
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000301.v2
- Fair price
- 2.45
- Market price
- 1.95
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 8.1 percentage points
- Generated
- Sun 6 Sept · 12:13 UTC
- Published
- Sun 6 Sept · 12:13 UTC
- Locked
- —
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 12:13 UTC73a68…7932
{
"confidenceScore": 96,
"dataQualityScore": 97,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtprwzje0008r6m7oulmg1fw",
"edge": -0.081274,
"fairOdds": 2.45,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtf97spb001ar68x80o4mx2o",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-06T12:13:12.604Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.95,
"modelProbability": 0.408253,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000301.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000301.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-06T12:13:12.604Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 29.1% · DRAW 30.1% · AWAY 40.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-06 12:13Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-06 12:13Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H0_1
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.95
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.