MQ-000305
Parma v Monza · Serie A · Sun 6 Sept · 13:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.36
- Market price
- 2.43
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 3.5 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
- Published
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 6 Sept · 11:32 UTC
Publication recordTue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC3fbb6…0f12
{
"confidenceScore": 67,
"dataQualityScore": 53,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtihztcx0191r6mlaf813bt4",
"edge": 0.034833,
"fairOdds": 2.36,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtf989o70040r68xzzl8ddbz",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.43,
"modelProbability": 0.423896,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000305",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 6 Sept · 11:32 UTC2a6a9…afb2
{
"confidenceScore": 67,
"dataQualityScore": 53,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtihztcx0191r6mlaf813bt4",
"edge": 0.034833,
"fairOdds": 2.36,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtf989o70040r68xzzl8ddbz",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.43,
"modelProbability": 0.423896,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000305",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-06T11:32:05.761Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 42.4% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 29.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-01 09:58Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-01 09:58Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- 2.43
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000305
- Fair price
- 2.36
- Market price
- 2.59
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 5.7 percentage points
- Generated
- Sun 6 Sept · 00:06 UTC
- Published
- Sun 6 Sept · 00:06 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 6 Sept · 11:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 00:06 UTCd11da…fabd
{
"confidenceScore": 69,
"dataQualityScore": 62,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtp1y788000er6bucx3xfjea",
"edge": 0.056762,
"fairOdds": 2.36,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtf989o70040r68xzzl8ddbz",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-06T00:06:51.148Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.59,
"modelProbability": 0.423896,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000305.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000305",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-06T00:06:51.148Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 6 Sept · 11:32 UTCfd6e6…649d
{
"confidenceScore": 69,
"dataQualityScore": 62,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtp1y788000er6bucx3xfjea",
"edge": 0.056762,
"fairOdds": 2.36,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtf989o70040r68xzzl8ddbz",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-06T00:06:51.148Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.59,
"modelProbability": 0.423896,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000305.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000305",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-06T11:32:05.761Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 42.4% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 29.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-06 00:06Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-06 00:06Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H12_24
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.59
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000305.v2
- Fair price
- 2.36
- Market price
- 2.75
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 7.7 percentage points
- Generated
- Sun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTC
- Published
- Sun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 6 Sept · 11:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTCafc4a…3f62
{
"confidenceScore": 69,
"dataQualityScore": 62,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtpet3bq000er629zvi8qt24",
"edge": 0.077233,
"fairOdds": 2.36,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtf989o70040r68xzzl8ddbz",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.75,
"modelProbability": 0.423896,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000305.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000305.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 6 Sept · 11:32 UTCb59b7…1f2a
{
"confidenceScore": 69,
"dataQualityScore": 62,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtpet3bq000er629zvi8qt24",
"edge": 0.077233,
"fairOdds": 2.36,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtf989o70040r68xzzl8ddbz",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.75,
"modelProbability": 0.423896,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000305.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000305.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-06T11:32:05.761Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 42.4% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 29.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-06 06:06Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-06 06:06Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H6_12
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.75
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.