MQ-000318
Arsenal v Chelsea · Premier League · Sun 6 Sept · 15:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.62
- Market price
- 1.71
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 6.4 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
- Published
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 6 Sept · 14:02 UTC
Publication recordTue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC68f2c…b8f4
{
"confidenceScore": 94,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtii0dpq01g7r6ml9nz5lciq",
"edge": 0.063988,
"fairOdds": 1.62,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtf97tas001gr68xy97hvbxw",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.71,
"modelProbability": 0.618178,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000318",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 6 Sept · 14:02 UTCef2aa…aa11
{
"confidenceScore": 94,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtii0dpq01g7r6ml9nz5lciq",
"edge": 0.063988,
"fairOdds": 1.62,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtf97tas001gr68xy97hvbxw",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.71,
"modelProbability": 0.618178,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000318",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-06T14:02:03.840Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 61.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 10.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-01 09:58Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-01 09:58Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- 1.71
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000318
- Fair price
- 1.53
- Market price
- 1.69
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 9.1 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 3 Sept · 16:48 UTC
- Published
- Thu 3 Sept · 16:48 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 6 Sept · 14:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 3 Sept · 16:48 UTCfa0f7…9cbe
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtlrgrjo00e6r6d235n8eu7t",
"edge": 0.091149,
"fairOdds": 1.53,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtf97tas001gr68xy97hvbxw",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-03T16:48:19.781Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.69,
"modelProbability": 0.654383,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000318.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000318",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-03T16:48:19.781Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 6 Sept · 14:02 UTCff0f1…2bfa
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtlrgrjo00e6r6d235n8eu7t",
"edge": 0.091149,
"fairOdds": 1.53,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtf97tas001gr68xy97hvbxw",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-03T16:48:19.781Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.69,
"modelProbability": 0.654383,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000318.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000318",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-06T14:02:03.840Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 65.4% · DRAW 25.5% · AWAY 9.1%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-03 16:48Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-03 16:48Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.69
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.