PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000319

MQ-000319

Arsenal v Chelsea · Premier League · Sun 6 Sept · 15:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

OU25 · OVER · 55.2% · confidence 94

בוטל

Fair price: 1.81
Market price: 1.79
Probability gap: 2.3 percentage points
Generated: Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
Published: Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
Locked: Sun 6 Sept · 14:02 UTC

Publication recordTue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC75265…6902

752658b2dc9ccf1270f9e8aa7aacb7da7881456bd3ecdb3cf30f177031e76902

{
 "confidenceScore": 94,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtii0dpq01g7r6ml9nz5lciq",
 "edge": 0.022559,
 "fairOdds": 1.81,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtf97tas001gr68xy97hvbxw",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.79,
 "modelProbability": 0.551506,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000319",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSun 6 Sept · 14:02 UTC9be76…4bdf

9be76b4a1d132474febfa012730892e7c82c268b70252a3e39e1c70be3ce4bdf

{
 "confidenceScore": 94,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtii0dpq01g7r6ml9nz5lciq",
 "edge": 0.022559,
 "fairOdds": 1.81,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtf97tas001gr68xy97hvbxw",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.79,
 "modelProbability": 0.551506,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000319",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-06T14:02:03.840Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 55.2% · UNDER 44.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-01 09:58Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-01 09:58Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock: 1.79
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000319

OU25 · OVER · 55.2% · confidence 90 · reason: Market price update

בוטל

Fair price: 1.81
Market price: 1.72
Probability gap: 0 percentage points
Generated: Fri 4 Sept · 15:12 UTC
Published: Fri 4 Sept · 15:12 UTC
Locked: Sun 6 Sept · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 4 Sept · 15:12 UTCd2c85…13cf

d2c8593a2ad1b59b6196092348673c8bfd8f3661d19247576f84c79c214413cf

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtn3h1ii008er60r3das4aza",
 "edge": -0.000385,
 "fairOdds": 1.81,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtf97tas001gr68xy97hvbxw",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-04T15:12:01.227Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.72,
 "modelProbability": 0.551698,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000319.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000319",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-04T15:12:01.227Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSun 6 Sept · 14:02 UTCb0a5f…0107

b0a5fca334ccaa416aeeb67a3c15476584505b44f6ee4a874b5583d36fd90107

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtn3h1ii008er60r3das4aza",
 "edge": -0.000385,
 "fairOdds": 1.81,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtf97tas001gr68xy97hvbxw",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-04T15:12:01.227Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.72,
 "modelProbability": 0.551698,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000319.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000319",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-06T14:02:03.840Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 55.2% · UNDER 44.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-04 15:12Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-04 15:12Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.72
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000319.v2

OU25 · OVER · 54.3% · confidence 90 · reason: Market price update

בוטל

Fair price: 1.84
Market price: 1.68
Probability gap: 2.1 percentage points
Generated: Sun 6 Sept · 00:06 UTC
Published: Sun 6 Sept · 00:06 UTC
Locked: Sun 6 Sept · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 00:06 UTCe72e5…c04d

e72e5aea517022039f35d64be2c3d55c7149de0969c186786270c5402e53c04d

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtp1ymg6001or6buhxguj9gu",
 "edge": -0.021374,
 "fairOdds": 1.84,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtf97tas001gr68xy97hvbxw",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T00:06:51.148Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.68,
 "modelProbability": 0.543393,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000319.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000319.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-06T00:06:51.148Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSun 6 Sept · 14:02 UTCc9a41…5b12

c9a41241772e23aef5e9269003419a70d2d3d084a87476f4cff4c983ae345b12

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtp1ymg6001or6buhxguj9gu",
 "edge": -0.021374,
 "fairOdds": 1.84,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtf97tas001gr68xy97hvbxw",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T00:06:51.148Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.68,
 "modelProbability": 0.543393,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000319.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000319.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-06T14:02:03.840Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 54.3% · UNDER 45.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-06 00:06Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-06 00:06Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H12_24
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.68
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000319.v3

OU25 · OVER · 54.5% · confidence 91 · reason: Market price update

פגיעה

Fair price: 1.84
Market price: 1.79
Probability gap: 1.5 percentage points
Generated: Sun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTC
Published: Sun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTC
Locked: Sun 6 Sept · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTCd5af6…9d77

d5af68157b872e56937866b0ed26758d251066855ccfeaad2bbb908725929d77

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtpetjer002qr629cmk2v4vw",
 "edge": 0.014687,
 "fairOdds": 1.84,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtf97tas001gr68xy97hvbxw",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.79,
 "modelProbability": 0.544871,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000319.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000319.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSun 6 Sept · 14:02 UTC38fa5…ecd7

38fa58681e954f2eca76b468189466d286eb88d9d9c8af2bb774dd8555c4ecd7

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtpetjer002qr629cmk2v4vw",
 "edge": 0.014687,
 "fairOdds": 1.84,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtf97tas001gr68xy97hvbxw",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.79,
 "modelProbability": 0.544871,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000319.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000319.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-06T14:02:03.840Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 54.5% · UNDER 45.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-06 06:06Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-06 06:06Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H6_12
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.79
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.