PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000344
MQ-000344
Maccabi Netanya v Hapoel Haifa · Israeli Premier League · Mon 7 Sept · 16:45 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
OU25 · UNDER · 50.7% · confidence 76
- Fair price
- 1.97
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
- Published
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
- Locked
- Mon 7 Sept · 15:32 UTC
Publication recordTue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC11ecf…7954
11ecf1a5ed267b18370af2b2aed923d27c76564c681021b92a70435a70c47954
{
"confidenceScore": 76,
"dataQualityScore": 30,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtii1mq101slr6mloeo40y3i",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.97,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtdicr39005br66z2la1ldjj",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.507331,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000344",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Lock recordMon 7 Sept · 15:32 UTC46793…fdfb
467932eec28c2e4d0945b2ca9ac2345da52ca8cd037751d5905e9de96c49fdfb
{
"confidenceScore": 76,
"dataQualityScore": 30,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtii1mq101slr6mloeo40y3i",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.97,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtdicr39005br66z2la1ldjj",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.507331,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000344",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-07T15:32:04.329Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 49.3% · UNDER 50.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-01 09:58Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-01 09:58Z
- Data coverage
- STANDARD
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000344
OU25 · OVER · 52.1% · confidence 80 · reason: Model refresh
- Fair price
- 1.92
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Fri 4 Sept · 12:26 UTC
- Published
- Fri 4 Sept · 12:26 UTC
- Locked
- Mon 7 Sept · 15:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 4 Sept · 12:26 UTCe70df…f990
e70df0a76a4a4c152064927ca891edf3cb94731518c6add4de088064aeddf990
{
"confidenceScore": 80,
"dataQualityScore": 40,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtmxk8i2009ir6if2g1twbui",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.92,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtdicr39005br66z2la1ldjj",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-04T12:26:17.825Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.521141,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000344.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000344",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-04T12:26:17.825Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordMon 7 Sept · 15:32 UTC1fd3c…d843
1fd3c7ab1e14040a2c7fb9ad6520dd16ce84d3efddf45a159e1bb1943242d843
{
"confidenceScore": 80,
"dataQualityScore": 40,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtmxk8i2009ir6if2g1twbui",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.92,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtdicr39005br66z2la1ldjj",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-04T12:26:17.825Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.521141,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000344.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000344",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-07T15:32:04.329Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 52.1% · UNDER 47.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-04 12:26Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-04 12:26Z
- Data coverage
- STANDARD
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000344.v2
OU25 · OVER · 51.7% · confidence 83 · reason: Market price update
- Fair price
- 1.93
- Market price
- 1.73
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 2.9 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC
- Published
- Sat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC
- Locked
- Mon 7 Sept · 15:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC288c4…289d
288c49885707120d9706e900489a72ce6eb6628c83ad8245aff960f23124289d
{
"confidenceScore": 83,
"dataQualityScore": 55,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtnu34sz009gr6q984ue6ct5",
"edge": -0.028706,
"fairOdds": 1.93,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtdicr39005br66z2la1ldjj",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.73,
"modelProbability": 0.517226,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000344.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000344.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordMon 7 Sept · 15:32 UTCea5f7…f293
ea5f7e559b46fca5662afb880fc3e8f163f76d3a70b191cfd64abc9f26b6f293
{
"confidenceScore": 83,
"dataQualityScore": 55,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtnu34sz009gr6q984ue6ct5",
"edge": -0.028706,
"fairOdds": 1.93,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtdicr39005br66z2la1ldjj",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.73,
"modelProbability": 0.517226,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000344.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000344.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-07T15:32:04.329Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 51.7% · UNDER 48.3%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-05 03:36Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-05 03:36Z
- Data coverage
- STANDARD
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.73
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 4 · previous MQ-000344.v3
OU25 · OVER · 51.5% · confidence 83 · reason: Market price update
- Fair price
- 1.94
- Market price
- 1.65
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 5.7 percentage points
- Generated
- Sun 6 Sept · 18:06 UTC
- Published
- Sun 6 Sept · 18:06 UTC
- Locked
- Mon 7 Sept · 15:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 18:06 UTCb0b14…953d
b0b147469d13ea55b36f9a32e48ee6405a385c0386ff8594838ebffaccf8953d
{
"confidenceScore": 83,
"dataQualityScore": 57,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtq4jej9000qr69pmhxr1cst",
"edge": -0.056687,
"fairOdds": 1.94,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtdicr39005br66z2la1ldjj",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-06T18:06:58.210Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.65,
"modelProbability": 0.514742,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000344.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000344.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-06T18:06:58.210Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordMon 7 Sept · 15:32 UTC3b143…3024
3b143ac34dcf8ec58b46378565133287f554f5a539e6eab6b47fdc4bf0993024
{
"confidenceScore": 83,
"dataQualityScore": 57,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtq4jej9000qr69pmhxr1cst",
"edge": -0.056687,
"fairOdds": 1.94,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtdicr39005br66z2la1ldjj",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-06T18:06:58.210Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.65,
"modelProbability": 0.514742,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000344.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000344.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-07T15:32:04.329Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 51.5% · UNDER 48.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-06 18:06Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-06 18:06Z
- Data coverage
- STANDARD
- Lead time
- H12_24
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.65
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.