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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000350

MQ-000350

Bnei Sakhnin v Beitar Jerusalem · Israeli Premier League · Mon 7 Sept · 17:15 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · AWAY · 56.1% · confidence 78
בוטל
Fair price
1.78
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
Published
Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
Locked
Mon 7 Sept · 15:32 UTC
Publication recordTue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC47e4f…6c33
47e4fd7c7d9400ba69bd42014f0ae278db197513371edcfe72028b5bca926c33
{
 "confidenceScore": 78,
 "dataQualityScore": 30,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtii1yhe01wxr6mlrz53b3ih",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.78,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtdicr3d005nr66zqfhg2zuj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.561169,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000350",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}
Lock recordMon 7 Sept · 15:32 UTC17fe1…a824
17fe1ee11d1edfe257a0e6f3ffb32523f8e14555458e2cd9a975254945a5a824
{
 "confidenceScore": 78,
 "dataQualityScore": 30,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtii1yhe01wxr6mlrz53b3ih",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.78,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtdicr3d005nr66zqfhg2zuj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.561169,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000350",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-07T15:32:04.329Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 17.0% · DRAW 26.8% · AWAY 56.1%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-01 09:58Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-01 09:58Z
Data coverage
STANDARD
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000350

1X2 · AWAY · 53.5% · confidence 78 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.87
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Fri 4 Sept · 12:26 UTC
Published
Fri 4 Sept · 12:26 UTC
Locked
Mon 7 Sept · 15:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 4 Sept · 12:26 UTC1cb7d…8eb0
1cb7d66d2de50d9287eb757d3d8ef1d091cfca993deca095224c20bb6a4c8eb0
{
 "confidenceScore": 78,
 "dataQualityScore": 40,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtmxki9g00d2r6if0zspio7x",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.87,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtdicr3d005nr66zqfhg2zuj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-04T12:26:17.825Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.534716,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000350.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000350",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-04T12:26:17.825Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}
Lock recordMon 7 Sept · 15:32 UTCa4b6b…25d8
a4b6bb51194a6e3016d68ff6f33cdee6b59eb512c7721c1ecbacfc46bd4c25d8
{
 "confidenceScore": 78,
 "dataQualityScore": 40,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtmxki9g00d2r6if0zspio7x",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.87,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtdicr3d005nr66zqfhg2zuj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-04T12:26:17.825Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.534716,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000350.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000350",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-07T15:32:04.329Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 19.5% · DRAW 27.0% · AWAY 53.5%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-04 12:26Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-04 12:26Z
Data coverage
STANDARD
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000350.v2

1X2 · AWAY · 53.5% · confidence 82 · reason: Market price update
בוטל
Fair price
1.87
Market price
1.42
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
9.7 percentage points
Generated
Sat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC
Published
Sat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC
Locked
Mon 7 Sept · 15:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC468b4…5314
468b43465923879836e8e16a7b7eab97d0c1daa7ccf71d405f55518cea085314
{
 "confidenceScore": 82,
 "dataQualityScore": 57,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtnu3gtp00bwr6q9ifwmy1bt",
 "edge": -0.096993,
 "fairOdds": 1.87,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtdicr3d005nr66zqfhg2zuj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.42,
 "modelProbability": 0.534716,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000350.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000350.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}
Lock recordMon 7 Sept · 15:32 UTC1feac…81bb
1feac4e48231c8c0353c6ac7491334280b83c9982038bb1d60c61afe406d81bb
{
 "confidenceScore": 82,
 "dataQualityScore": 57,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtnu3gtp00bwr6q9ifwmy1bt",
 "edge": -0.096993,
 "fairOdds": 1.87,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtdicr3d005nr66zqfhg2zuj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.42,
 "modelProbability": 0.534716,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000350.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000350.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-07T15:32:04.329Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 19.5% · DRAW 27.0% · AWAY 53.5%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-05 03:36Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-05 03:36Z
Data coverage
STANDARD
Lead time
H48_72
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.42
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000350.v3

1X2 · AWAY · 53.6% · confidence 82 · reason: Market price update
פגיעה
Fair price
1.87
Market price
1.50
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
5.7 percentage points
Generated
Sun 6 Sept · 18:06 UTC
Published
Sun 6 Sept · 18:06 UTC
Locked
Mon 7 Sept · 15:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 18:06 UTC9b43e…3d65
9b43e31f5cede0bce9625147cd31080b04bac944d3fa4ea75e422852199e3d65
{
 "confidenceScore": 82,
 "dataQualityScore": 57,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtq4js54001qr69p0oxdb8ue",
 "edge": -0.057457,
 "fairOdds": 1.87,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtdicr3d005nr66zqfhg2zuj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T18:06:58.210Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.5,
 "modelProbability": 0.53615,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000350.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000350.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-06T18:06:58.210Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}
Lock recordMon 7 Sept · 15:32 UTCba84c…6961
ba84cdb45bc66e26cf95225be149934614baba88d6b47e8649cf718e7e466961
{
 "confidenceScore": 82,
 "dataQualityScore": 57,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtq4js54001qr69p0oxdb8ue",
 "edge": -0.057457,
 "fairOdds": 1.87,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtdicr3d005nr66zqfhg2zuj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T18:06:58.210Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.5,
 "modelProbability": 0.53615,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000350.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000350.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-07T15:32:04.329Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 20.7% · DRAW 25.6% · AWAY 53.6%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-06 18:06Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-06 18:06Z
Data coverage
STANDARD
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.50
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.