PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000359
MQ-000359
Elche v Sociedad · La Liga · Mon 7 Sept · 19:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 79
- Fair price
- 2.51
- Market price
- 2.88
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 7.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
- Published
- Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
- Locked
- Mon 7 Sept · 17:32 UTC
Publication recordTue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC4caa0…a6fe
4caa08291492877260e9eaa38da6e5697fa2ac57575603cde1a8afe2df72a6fe
{
"confidenceScore": 79,
"dataQualityScore": 70,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtii2fvs021xr6ml25v24dbg",
"edge": 0.072678,
"fairOdds": 2.51,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtgirjlt0030l504yobsq668",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.88,
"modelProbability": 0.397893,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000359",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordMon 7 Sept · 17:32 UTC75918…b603
75918407f2798223625027eb7116c3f484cdf53bd20b78a2e34c1e415abab603
{
"confidenceScore": 79,
"dataQualityScore": 70,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtii2fvs021xr6ml25v24dbg",
"edge": 0.072678,
"fairOdds": 2.51,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtgirjlt0030l504yobsq668",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.88,
"modelProbability": 0.397893,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000359",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-07T17:32:05.699Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-01 09:58Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-01 09:58Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- not recorded for this prediction
- Price at lock
- 2.88
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000359
1X2 · HOME · 41.5% · confidence 71 · reason: Model refresh
- Fair price
- 2.41
- Market price
- 2.90
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 8.7 percentage points
- Generated
- Fri 4 Sept · 12:26 UTC
- Published
- Fri 4 Sept · 12:26 UTC
- Locked
- Mon 7 Sept · 17:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 4 Sept · 12:26 UTC0e6ff…cc27
0e6ffef91b2832d491391fa1648d0ec18ccce8864510e19427e2936c894bcc27
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtmxkqz800fer6if95xnf2m2",
"edge": 0.086681,
"fairOdds": 2.41,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtgirjlt0030l504yobsq668",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-04T12:26:17.825Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.9,
"modelProbability": 0.414943,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000359.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000359",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-04T12:26:17.825Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordMon 7 Sept · 17:32 UTCd79c1…97c8
d79c17094fcbb58d688656cba678c86524b305f8d85d7f10f7175e7cbf8397c8
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtmxkqz800fer6if95xnf2m2",
"edge": 0.086681,
"fairOdds": 2.41,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtgirjlt0030l504yobsq668",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-04T12:26:17.825Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.9,
"modelProbability": 0.414943,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000359.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000359",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-07T17:32:05.699Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 41.5% · DRAW 28.5% · AWAY 30.0%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-04 12:26Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-04 12:26Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.90
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000359.v2
1X2 · HOME · 41.5% · confidence 72 · reason: Market price update
- Fair price
- 2.41
- Market price
- 3.14
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 11.1 percentage points
- Generated
- Mon 7 Sept · 00:06 UTC
- Published
- Mon 7 Sept · 00:06 UTC
- Locked
- Mon 7 Sept · 17:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 7 Sept · 00:06 UTCd644f…8e48
d644fd19d3747a8dfe6d005863832a6a7253da936c83953a255aaf247a8b8e48
{
"confidenceScore": 72,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtqhdq6c0018r64trboqlzz5",
"edge": 0.111005,
"fairOdds": 2.41,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtgirjlt0030l504yobsq668",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-07T00:06:19.956Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 3.14,
"modelProbability": 0.414943,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000359.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000359.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-07T00:06:19.956Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordMon 7 Sept · 17:32 UTCafb9f…aef9
afb9fadb90f63d516e5d1eade931b3cd47b8eeb12d5390b0813ddaaf1055aef9
{
"confidenceScore": 72,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtqhdq6c0018r64trboqlzz5",
"edge": 0.111005,
"fairOdds": 2.41,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtgirjlt0030l504yobsq668",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-07T00:06:19.956Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 3.14,
"modelProbability": 0.414943,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000359.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000359.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-07T17:32:05.699Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 41.5% · DRAW 28.5% · AWAY 30.0%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-07 00:06Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-07 00:06Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H12_24
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 3.14
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 4 · previous MQ-000359.v3
1X2 · HOME · 41.5% · confidence 71 · reason: Official lineup
- Fair price
- 2.41
- Market price
- 3.44
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 13.7 percentage points
- Generated
- Mon 7 Sept · 17:03 UTC
- Published
- Mon 7 Sept · 17:03 UTC
- Locked
- Mon 7 Sept · 17:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 7 Sept · 17:03 UTC8549b…3ad0
8549b7e40d91a43693ee1b9afd601d0469db5d82cb9007f0e30c6d8f88513ad0
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 82,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtrhted8005xr6b6ulch66de",
"edge": 0.137219,
"fairOdds": 2.41,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtgirjlt0030l504yobsq668",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-07T17:03:51.781Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 3.44,
"modelProbability": 0.414943,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000359.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000359.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-07T17:03:51.781Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordMon 7 Sept · 17:32 UTCec602…486a
ec6022b698912d84a644f68e7d3e25a1f0f36da3dff18c473efa10a0c106486a
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 82,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtrhted8005xr6b6ulch66de",
"edge": 0.137219,
"fairOdds": 2.41,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtgirjlt0030l504yobsq668",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-07T17:03:51.781Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 3.44,
"modelProbability": 0.414943,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000359.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000359.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-07T17:32:05.699Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 41.5% · DRAW 28.5% · AWAY 30.0%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-07 17:03Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-07 17:03Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 3.44
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.