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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000361

MQ-000361

Elche v Sociedad · La Liga · Mon 7 Sept · 19:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

BTTS · YES · 63.6% · confidence 79
בוטל
Fair price
1.57
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
Published
Tue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTC
Locked
Mon 7 Sept · 17:32 UTC
Publication recordTue 1 Sept · 09:58 UTCd74d6…cfc7
d74d6dd578bb759877c140781eaf3e30997d0610551f7d1c7f9c2c39a3e9cfc7
{
 "confidenceScore": 79,
 "dataQualityScore": 70,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtii2fvs021xr6ml25v24dbg",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.57,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtgirjlt0030l504yobsq668",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.63568,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000361",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}
Lock recordMon 7 Sept · 17:32 UTCf3013…a5bd
f3013197965ef10ec8bd427bbd26cb0fc54b67f34b1ed166a04bad1ed8a6a5bd
{
 "confidenceScore": 79,
 "dataQualityScore": 70,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtii2fvs021xr6ml25v24dbg",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.57,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtgirjlt0030l504yobsq668",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-01T09:58:37.741Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.63568,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000361",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-07T17:32:05.699Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 63.6% · NO 36.4%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-01 09:58Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-01 09:58Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
not recorded for this prediction
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000361

BTTS · YES · 61.7% · confidence 71 · reason: Model refresh
פגיעה
Fair price
1.62
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Fri 4 Sept · 12:26 UTC
Published
Fri 4 Sept · 12:26 UTC
Locked
Mon 7 Sept · 17:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 4 Sept · 12:26 UTC22f2b…a582
22f2bdd9a67cb13986b0e0945e3049268570610937e03c2fcc1881d83287a582
{
 "confidenceScore": 71,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtmxkqz800fer6if95xnf2m2",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtgirjlt0030l504yobsq668",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-04T12:26:17.825Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.617005,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000361.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000361",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-04T12:26:17.825Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}
Lock recordMon 7 Sept · 17:32 UTC43074…20e8
43074c654bcb9f62925b60bbb138c47d703f617587bb0a7e30250c2e0c4720e8
{
 "confidenceScore": 71,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtmxkqz800fer6if95xnf2m2",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtgirjlt0030l504yobsq668",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-04T12:26:17.825Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.617005,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000361.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000361",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-07T17:32:05.699Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 61.7% · NO 38.3%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-04 12:26Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-04 12:26Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.

Prediction proof MQ-000361 — Elche v Sociedad · WinPIQ