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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000362

MQ-000362

Club Brugge KV v Aston Villa · UEFA Champions League · Tue 8 Sept · 16:45 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 42.4% · confidence 48
בוטל
Fair price
2.36
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC
Published
Sat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC
Locked
Tue 8 Sept · 14:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC37c65…30b4
37c65a92a17c3178d0f1441dc478515c10c2578f932bf417ece322b49e8230b4
{
 "confidenceScore": 48,
 "dataQualityScore": 5,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtnu3tbd00far6q97jx8vf7q",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhb400m8lc04x0zxe75y",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000362",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 14:32 UTCf62df…1135
f62dfc92e734f21ffc8155d593be5208248d6d6e6dce5b9170ccd3c5901d1135
{
 "confidenceScore": 48,
 "dataQualityScore": 5,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtnu3tbd00far6q97jx8vf7q",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhb400m8lc04x0zxe75y",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000362",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T14:32:05.902Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 42.4% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 29.5%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-05 03:36Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-05 03:36Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000362

1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 48 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.51
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTC
Published
Sun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTC
Locked
Tue 8 Sept · 14:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTC66a28…c930
66a28c9adace158efc94ceae3478eb594a44d2494ccb802a8986e7d7cbafc930
{
 "confidenceScore": 48,
 "dataQualityScore": 5,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtpeup0p007or629x8xnqejt",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhb400m8lc04x0zxe75y",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000362.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000362",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 14:32 UTC6dc75…0072
6dc758f4626f161a2a5d54011a1db94d8e057c863784956334f05c7be9140072
{
 "confidenceScore": 48,
 "dataQualityScore": 5,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtpeup0p007or629x8xnqejt",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhb400m8lc04x0zxe75y",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000362.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000362",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T14:32:05.902Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-06 06:06Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-06 06:06Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H48_72
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000362.v2

1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 51 · reason: Market price update
בוטל
Fair price
2.51
Market price
2.62
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
3.7 percentage points
Generated
Sun 6 Sept · 18:06 UTC
Published
Sun 6 Sept · 18:06 UTC
Locked
Tue 8 Sept · 14:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 18:06 UTC1ec06…0234
1ec06ca22064ecef5a1993eba14da5211dc403097132364556f8ac03bc4d0234
{
 "confidenceScore": 51,
 "dataQualityScore": 20,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtq4k1ur002ur69p2cjclv68",
 "edge": 0.036628,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhb400m8lc04x0zxe75y",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T18:06:58.210Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.62,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000362.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000362.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-06T18:06:58.210Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 14:32 UTC42d98…b259
42d9896ed621790f2b1096da82a99426538a295f6ded24fa2f65d6fc1eccb259
{
 "confidenceScore": 51,
 "dataQualityScore": 20,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtq4k1ur002ur69p2cjclv68",
 "edge": 0.036628,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhb400m8lc04x0zxe75y",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T18:06:58.210Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.62,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000362.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000362.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T14:32:05.902Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-06 18:06Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-06 18:06Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.62
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000362.v3

1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 53 · reason: Market price update
החטאה
Fair price
2.51
Market price
2.50
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
1.6 percentage points
Generated
Tue 8 Sept · 09:07 UTC
Published
Tue 8 Sept · 09:07 UTC
Locked
Tue 8 Sept · 14:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 8 Sept · 09:07 UTC180dd…12b4
180dd16d3f5eac29ce6cf69a21715b5d387bd7a22304c3557ad09542b73612b4
{
 "confidenceScore": 53,
 "dataQualityScore": 30,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtsg5hhh0002r6bkz9jmtb21",
 "edge": 0.016268,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhb400m8lc04x0zxe75y",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T09:07:52.617Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.5,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000362.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000362.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T09:07:52.617Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 14:32 UTC82b02…6bb1
82b029890b912cd07da95244e075212e79e0e8aae8641bb8688c2c5d9f206bb1
{
 "confidenceScore": 53,
 "dataQualityScore": 30,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtsg5hhh0002r6bkz9jmtb21",
 "edge": 0.016268,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhb400m8lc04x0zxe75y",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T09:07:52.617Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.5,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000362.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000362.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T14:32:05.902Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-08 09:07Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-08 09:07Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H6_12
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.50
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.