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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000364

MQ-000364

Real Madrid v Inter · UEFA Champions League · Tue 8 Sept · 19:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 41.3% · confidence 91
בוטל
Fair price
2.42
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC
Published
Sat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC
Locked
Tue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC490ee…19f9
490ee5cbac1ed2587c7cb4af967a1bc7dd3dbfeda36bdd1310a50384cf0319f9
{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtnu3ya000g6r6q9g6t5kgo5",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2.42,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhhm00mklc04nl9pbpvf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.412629,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000364",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTCfb4f4…00f6
fb4f4de5263504b439f9ee6774282b65df7c1943bb77b6f5b4d8abe274d300f6
{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtnu3ya000g6r6q9g6t5kgo5",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2.42,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhhm00mklc04nl9pbpvf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.412629,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000364",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T17:02:06.022Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 41.3% · DRAW 25.9% · AWAY 32.9%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-05 03:36Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-05 03:36Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000364

1X2 · HOME · 40.0% · confidence 89 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.50
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sat 5 Sept · 06:06 UTC
Published
Sat 5 Sept · 06:06 UTC
Locked
Tue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 5 Sept · 06:06 UTC26c8b…426e
26c8b85c96a57f6491da3d7b129db4a9c2f9cdc626cc42a14348a7b9d04a426e
{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtnzgn6h00e4r6cn6cinrrw2",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2.5,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhhm00mklc04nl9pbpvf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T06:06:57.530Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.400444,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000364.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000364",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T06:06:57.530Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTCe9227…f2da
e922705388ede9fe17723a7745a8b8ba781ea8b7f6607fa1f5e3daa914cff2da
{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtnzgn6h00e4r6cn6cinrrw2",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2.5,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhhm00mklc04nl9pbpvf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T06:06:57.530Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.400444,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000364.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000364",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T17:02:06.022Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 40.0% · DRAW 24.0% · AWAY 35.9%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-05 06:06Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-05 06:06Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000364.v2

1X2 · HOME · 41.7% · confidence 88 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.40
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sat 5 Sept · 10:29 UTC
Published
Sat 5 Sept · 10:29 UTC
Locked
Tue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 5 Sept · 10:29 UTCba6c1…66bc
ba6c1690fba2e435f0838617e1ae6bfb8e26e281f3f4001be00d1bb6fd7166bc
{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmto8r6gr00bmjm04ad1pngr4",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2.4,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhhm00mklc04nl9pbpvf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T10:29:03.142Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.417351,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000364.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000364.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T10:29:03.142Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC3239e…b1e2
3239ebaa923186df17eb6c8a90c769a9257ed49d7c3080c1586c04e4cc92b1e2
{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmto8r6gr00bmjm04ad1pngr4",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2.4,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhhm00mklc04nl9pbpvf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T10:29:03.142Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.417351,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000364.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000364.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T17:02:06.022Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 41.7% · DRAW 25.0% · AWAY 33.2%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-05 10:29Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-05 10:29Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000364.v3

1X2 · HOME · 40.0% · confidence 89 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.50
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sat 5 Sept · 12:07 UTC
Published
Sat 5 Sept · 12:07 UTC
Locked
Tue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 5 Sept · 12:07 UTCdd377…4edb
dd377ce04140c8b8a448f6556307b4b83c536ea6a241b36f951661c9b7214edb
{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtoccepe00a6r6xcbrfmlv5f",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2.5,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhhm00mklc04nl9pbpvf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T12:07:45.469Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.400444,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000364.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000364.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T12:07:45.469Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC83654…e0a1
83654b5f8242aeafa9e17451cf1c936a1b9404037be7954729305f9392ebe0a1
{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtoccepe00a6r6xcbrfmlv5f",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2.5,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhhm00mklc04nl9pbpvf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T12:07:45.469Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.400444,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000364.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000364.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T17:02:06.022Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 40.0% · DRAW 24.0% · AWAY 35.9%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-05 12:07Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-05 12:07Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000364.v4

1X2 · AWAY · 45.6% · confidence 91 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.19
Market price
4.75
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
25.9 percentage points
Generated
Sun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTC
Published
Sun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTC
Locked
Tue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTC30e40…7df2
30e40f6e778b40831743384ba1cea075f9df7c4e8edfebdf96b8e78b3aba7df2
{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtqb75sk001qr694565upugc",
 "edge": 0.25883,
 "fairOdds": 2.19,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhhm00mklc04nl9pbpvf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 4.75,
 "modelProbability": 0.456339,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000364.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000364.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}
Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTCb8327…97a1
b832794fb4ea5582a8ba9d9331a056c75c6380c9d75513eb87d8abcbd8c497a1
{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtqb75sk001qr694565upugc",
 "edge": 0.25883,
 "fairOdds": 2.19,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhhm00mklc04nl9pbpvf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 4.75,
 "modelProbability": 0.456339,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000364.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000364.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T17:02:06.022Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 31.5% · DRAW 22.9% · AWAY 45.6%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-06 21:12Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-06 21:12Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
4.75
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000364.v5

1X2 · HOME · 39.2% · confidence 73 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.55
Market price
1.62
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
18.7 percentage points
Generated
Mon 7 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Published
Mon 7 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Locked
Tue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 7 Sept · 09:10 UTCf5f38…3c73
f5f38a07c3359799ed20f7f1e3f029764b2586572fe9419189ae71d33f723c73
{
 "confidenceScore": 73,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtr0tmwr001qr6rysxuf7u4o",
 "edge": -0.187468,
 "fairOdds": 2.55,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhhm00mklc04nl9pbpvf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-07T09:10:20.573Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.62,
 "modelProbability": 0.391649,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000364.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000364.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-07T09:10:20.573Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTCbd299…8464
bd2999f6f01a877388e65ff64d485362362ed55c92248556ca2d3941edb48464
{
 "confidenceScore": 73,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtr0tmwr001qr6rysxuf7u4o",
 "edge": -0.187468,
 "fairOdds": 2.55,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhhm00mklc04nl9pbpvf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-07T09:10:20.573Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.62,
 "modelProbability": 0.391649,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000364.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000364.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T17:02:06.022Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 39.2% · DRAW 24.4% · AWAY 36.5%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-07 09:10Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-07 09:10Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.62
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 7 · previous MQ-000364.v6

1X2 · AWAY · 45.6% · confidence 91 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.19
Market price
5.00
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
26.7 percentage points
Generated
Mon 7 Sept · 18:06 UTC
Published
Mon 7 Sept · 18:06 UTC
Locked
Tue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 7 Sept · 18:06 UTC69f91…bb02
69f910ef219d0161b63aa75fba557132a906756e6a26e567e484705aa036bb02
{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtrjyilh000qr6jq23hvi2or",
 "edge": 0.266936,
 "fairOdds": 2.19,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhhm00mklc04nl9pbpvf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-07T18:06:28.639Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 5,
 "modelProbability": 0.456339,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000364.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000364.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-07T18:06:28.639Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}
Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC96639…2a70
966397a682dcebaa511590e2d37d9cbed4ae1a83fd13de5a57955e0e53072a70
{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtrjyilh000qr6jq23hvi2or",
 "edge": 0.266936,
 "fairOdds": 2.19,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhhm00mklc04nl9pbpvf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-07T18:06:28.639Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 5,
 "modelProbability": 0.456339,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000364.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000364.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T17:02:06.022Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 31.5% · DRAW 22.9% · AWAY 45.6%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-07 18:06Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-07 18:06Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
5.00
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 8 · previous MQ-000364.v7

1X2 · HOME · 39.2% · confidence 72 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.55
Market price
1.57
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
21 percentage points
Generated
Tue 8 Sept · 09:07 UTC
Published
Tue 8 Sept · 09:07 UTC
Locked
Tue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 8 Sept · 09:07 UTCdecec…160d
decec8f3fb489eeaf42a5a48616162819a77cfb021bda1d36a79b3edd4a4160d
{
 "confidenceScore": 72,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtsg5pej000qr6bko729bblv",
 "edge": -0.209714,
 "fairOdds": 2.55,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhhm00mklc04nl9pbpvf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T09:07:52.617Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.57,
 "modelProbability": 0.391649,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000364.v8",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000364.v7",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T09:07:52.617Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC4e489…b868
4e489a723777c0b398bd8179c476c373955af907e46c1669108fbc0eb0b9b868
{
 "confidenceScore": 72,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtsg5pej000qr6bko729bblv",
 "edge": -0.209714,
 "fairOdds": 2.55,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhhm00mklc04nl9pbpvf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T09:07:52.617Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.57,
 "modelProbability": 0.391649,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000364.v8",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000364.v7",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T17:02:06.022Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 39.2% · DRAW 24.4% · AWAY 36.5%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-08 09:07Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-08 09:07Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H6_12
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.57
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 9 · previous MQ-000364.v8

1X2 · AWAY · 45.6% · confidence 91 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.19
Market price
5.25
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
27.5 percentage points
Generated
Tue 8 Sept · 12:07 UTC
Published
Tue 8 Sept · 12:07 UTC
Locked
Tue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 8 Sept · 12:07 UTCf44c0…b67f
f44c0535d329c9ca4d5624a1507df80dfc74322ebb2dcb46b17289a95f24b67f
{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtsmkkfy000er688rwox5br9",
 "edge": 0.274871,
 "fairOdds": 2.19,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhhm00mklc04nl9pbpvf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T12:07:27.326Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 5.25,
 "modelProbability": 0.456339,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000364.v9",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000364.v8",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T12:07:27.326Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}
Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC99bdb…6707
99bdba6467c2382d2a5bf40af2f276f8dc2c86f37c8cfb1d1ab71168e3d66707
{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtsmkkfy000er688rwox5br9",
 "edge": 0.274871,
 "fairOdds": 2.19,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhhm00mklc04nl9pbpvf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T12:07:27.326Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 5.25,
 "modelProbability": 0.456339,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000364.v9",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000364.v8",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T17:02:06.022Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 31.5% · DRAW 22.9% · AWAY 45.6%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-08 12:07Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-08 12:07Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H6_12
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
5.25
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 10 · previous MQ-000364.v9

1X2 · AWAY · 46.7% · confidence 92 · reason: Official lineup
בוטל
Fair price
2.14
Market price
5.00
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
27.8 percentage points
Generated
Tue 8 Sept · 17:03 UTC
Published
Tue 8 Sept · 17:03 UTC
Locked
Tue 8 Sept · 17:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 8 Sept · 17:03 UTCf5edc…22ce
f5edce3d95e4560f1a9c161dc329aff1602f696e49d2879454d18064a0fb22ce
{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 82,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtsx9odu007wr6j2ka0dc5m8",
 "edge": 0.277833,
 "fairOdds": 2.14,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhhm00mklc04nl9pbpvf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T17:03:44.274Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 5,
 "modelProbability": 0.467236,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000364.v10",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000364.v9",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T17:03:44.274Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}
Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 17:32 UTC1a513…24e1
1a513dfb4b4b094bc61739736173fb1ed0b7ab186948bade350284363ed524e1
{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 82,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtsx9odu007wr6j2ka0dc5m8",
 "edge": 0.277833,
 "fairOdds": 2.14,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhhm00mklc04nl9pbpvf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T17:03:44.274Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 5,
 "modelProbability": 0.467236,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000364.v10",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000364.v9",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T17:32:04.200Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 29.8% · DRAW 23.5% · AWAY 46.7%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-08 17:03Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-08 17:03Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H1_6
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
5.00
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 11 · previous MQ-000364.v10

1X2 · AWAY · 45.6% · confidence 94 · reason: Model refresh
החטאה
Fair price
2.19
Market price
5.00
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
26.7 percentage points
Generated
Tue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTC
Published
Tue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTC
Locked
Tue 8 Sept · 18:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTCbef1e…247d
bef1e5a813b7594572bb6544219ef50ce896f1cc0425f63333f5c5b7a99f247d
{
 "confidenceScore": 94,
 "dataQualityScore": 97,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtszep3l0002r6szfreuthzr",
 "edge": 0.266936,
 "fairOdds": 2.19,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhhm00mklc04nl9pbpvf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 5,
 "modelProbability": 0.456339,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000364.v11",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000364.v10",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}
Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 18:32 UTC69c05…7708
69c051623076f582edf5e7318733f2d50093a27c3dbc4f07da86a5aea5017708
{
 "confidenceScore": 94,
 "dataQualityScore": 97,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtszep3l0002r6szfreuthzr",
 "edge": 0.266936,
 "fairOdds": 2.19,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhhm00mklc04nl9pbpvf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 5,
 "modelProbability": 0.456339,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000364.v11",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000364.v10",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T18:32:05.966Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 31.5% · DRAW 22.9% · AWAY 45.6%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-08 18:06Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-08 18:06Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H0_1
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
5.00
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.