MQ-000368
Dortmund v Villarreal · UEFA Champions League · Tue 8 Sept · 19:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.00
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Sat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC
- Published
- Sat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC7b88c…af2b
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtnu46tp00ier6q90fyn6g2h",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 2,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkbzho200mwlc04rhos3n7h",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.500506,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000368",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC146c3…eb7f
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtnu46tp00ier6q90fyn6g2h",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 2,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkbzho200mwlc04rhos3n7h",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.500506,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000368",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-08T17:02:06.022Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 50.1% · DRAW 25.3% · AWAY 24.6%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-05 03:36Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-05 03:36Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000368
- Fair price
- 1.89
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Sun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTC
- Published
- Sun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTCc0022…658b
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtpeuy5b009sr62938twytnk",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.89,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkbzho200mwlc04rhos3n7h",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.529268,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000368.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000368",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC880b7…8b50
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtpeuy5b009sr62938twytnk",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.89,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkbzho200mwlc04rhos3n7h",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.529268,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000368.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000368",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-08T17:02:06.022Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 52.9% · DRAW 26.8% · AWAY 20.3%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-06 06:06Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-06 06:06Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000368.v2
- Fair price
- 1.89
- Market price
- 1.75
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 1 percentage points
- Generated
- Sun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTC
- Published
- Sun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTC
- Locked
- Tue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTCe4f19…3607
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtqb7d31003kr6941feuyz0h",
"edge": -0.010058,
"fairOdds": 1.89,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkbzho200mwlc04rhos3n7h",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.75,
"modelProbability": 0.529268,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000368.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000368.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTCee968…f3e2
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtqb7d31003kr6941feuyz0h",
"edge": -0.010058,
"fairOdds": 1.89,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkbzho200mwlc04rhos3n7h",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.75,
"modelProbability": 0.529268,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000368.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000368.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-08T17:02:06.022Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 52.9% · DRAW 26.8% · AWAY 20.3%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-06 21:12Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-06 21:12Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.75
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.