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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000369

MQ-000369

Dortmund v Villarreal · UEFA Champions League · Tue 8 Sept · 19:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

OU25 · OVER · 53.5% · confidence 88
בוטל
Fair price
1.87
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC
Published
Sat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC
Locked
Tue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC60d6c…8cf4
60d6c17f86bec85ebded2af8ba2c84e5089f6c0f55bf9bf1fd832c1d20608cf4
{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtnu46tp00ier6q90fyn6g2h",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.87,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzho200mwlc04rhos3n7h",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.53535,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000369",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC13982…091c
139827039dd24b0497f1c218512beae05697ad256bab1d9286ebfadeddc0091c
{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtnu46tp00ier6q90fyn6g2h",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.87,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzho200mwlc04rhos3n7h",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.53535,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000369",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T17:02:06.022Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 53.5% · UNDER 46.5%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-05 03:36Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-05 03:36Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000369

OU25 · OVER · 54.7% · confidence 90 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.83
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTC
Published
Sun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTC
Locked
Tue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTC43c68…51c6
43c685da589117a85585fe31f1e4df9c531346baa2b0022e644b43ade28951c6
{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtpeuy5b009sr62938twytnk",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.83,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzho200mwlc04rhos3n7h",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.547276,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000369.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000369",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC082f1…2d46
082f1134887d29f0e57d157171dae03e7a47a8165fac9211203e9534c0372d46
{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtpeuy5b009sr62938twytnk",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.83,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzho200mwlc04rhos3n7h",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.547276,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000369.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000369",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T17:02:06.022Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 54.7% · UNDER 45.3%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-06 06:06Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-06 06:06Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H48_72
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000369.v2

OU25 · OVER · 54.7% · confidence 93 · reason: Market price update
בוטל
Fair price
1.83
Market price
1.53
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
7.3 percentage points
Generated
Sun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTC
Published
Sun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTC
Locked
Tue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTCba007…868f
ba007c7be26dd5f7eed46d935063400f815bc85ec2fecf252c7f50db4543868f
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtqb7d31003kr6941feuyz0h",
 "edge": -0.073088,
 "fairOdds": 1.83,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzho200mwlc04rhos3n7h",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.53,
 "modelProbability": 0.547259,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000369.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000369.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC6e020…67f3
6e020a18767df8f7d339bc79484b33f5f37936fe107f361f61ff89ab52c267f3
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtqb7d31003kr6941feuyz0h",
 "edge": -0.073088,
 "fairOdds": 1.83,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzho200mwlc04rhos3n7h",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.53,
 "modelProbability": 0.547259,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000369.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000369.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T17:02:06.022Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 54.7% · UNDER 45.3%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-06 21:12Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-06 21:12Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.53
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000369.v3

OU25 · OVER · 54.4% · confidence 93 · reason: Market price update
פגיעה
Fair price
1.84
Market price
1.44
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
11.2 percentage points
Generated
Tue 8 Sept · 12:07 UTC
Published
Tue 8 Sept · 12:07 UTC
Locked
Tue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 8 Sept · 12:07 UTC34221…c5c3
342212014f7a95ebe1ead4439a5c6c4cc171785f7b18971f3999896e0988c5c3
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtsmksgi001ur68885w26ywn",
 "edge": -0.111976,
 "fairOdds": 1.84,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzho200mwlc04rhos3n7h",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T12:07:27.326Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.44,
 "modelProbability": 0.544349,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000369.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000369.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T12:07:27.326Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC54fec…fa2f
54fec24a1b83be26d5d68bb68b908e174e6ca0e4f5eba313700504c54926fa2f
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtsmksgi001ur68885w26ywn",
 "edge": -0.111976,
 "fairOdds": 1.84,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzho200mwlc04rhos3n7h",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T12:07:27.326Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.44,
 "modelProbability": 0.544349,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000369.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000369.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T17:02:06.022Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 54.4% · UNDER 45.6%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-08 12:07Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-08 12:07Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H6_12
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.44
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.