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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000371

MQ-000371

Lille v Betis · UEFA Champions League · Tue 8 Sept · 19:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 48.0% · confidence 88
בוטל
Fair price
2.08
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC
Published
Sat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC
Locked
Tue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 5 Sept · 03:36 UTC2ecc5…022f
2ecc527c3a6e89867b142326956fe5caafca6e9c732c12f9e0c11d017db8022f
{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtnu4bx900k8r6q9vg3v8u3p",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2.08,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhra00n2lc04uym9l6bi",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.480393,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000371",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTCaa5dd…19ea
aa5dd9398ea5ee355291d553b16ddd6c0bc3574681bad4a26fb53d1755e219ea
{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtnu4bx900k8r6q9vg3v8u3p",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2.08,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhra00n2lc04uym9l6bi",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T03:36:08.663Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.480393,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000371",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T17:02:06.022Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 48.0% · DRAW 27.0% · AWAY 24.9%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-05 03:36Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-05 03:36Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000371

1X2 · HOME · 51.0% · confidence 87 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.96
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sat 5 Sept · 06:06 UTC
Published
Sat 5 Sept · 06:06 UTC
Locked
Tue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 5 Sept · 06:06 UTC053f0…e9a5
053f03b16a3fe2cb2c95b2a12d350f28da4e2ab03cf9fec93db69f4adff9e9a5
{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtnzgtp600fmr6cn27gjqpg9",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.96,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhra00n2lc04uym9l6bi",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T06:06:57.530Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.510212,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000371.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000371",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T06:06:57.530Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC36f75…0bee
36f7512cee744f2a1df37407c0cca94b7c9f8d12dff17fb113a07b4d2b7c0bee
{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtnzgtp600fmr6cn27gjqpg9",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.96,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhra00n2lc04uym9l6bi",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T06:06:57.530Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.510212,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000371.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000371",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T17:02:06.022Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 51.0% · DRAW 28.5% · AWAY 20.5%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-05 06:06Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-05 06:06Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000371.v2

1X2 · HOME · 51.0% · confidence 90 · reason: Market price update
בוטל
Fair price
1.96
Market price
2.25
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
9.1 percentage points
Generated
Sun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTC
Published
Sun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTC
Locked
Tue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTCc3b9c…656f
c3b9c5800200832d080081ca5bb7ad7df83492c724471b2dbaddcc11a49f656f
{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtqb7i30004qr694q0t03na1",
 "edge": 0.090857,
 "fairOdds": 1.96,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhra00n2lc04uym9l6bi",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.25,
 "modelProbability": 0.510212,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000371.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000371.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC06c97…d929
06c97a1b750fc719425ab0e91938204f5ae8a11a2b76f5da03c5cb463a61d929
{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtqb7i30004qr694q0t03na1",
 "edge": 0.090857,
 "fairOdds": 1.96,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhra00n2lc04uym9l6bi",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.25,
 "modelProbability": 0.510212,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000371.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000371.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T17:02:06.022Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 51.0% · DRAW 28.5% · AWAY 20.5%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-06 21:12Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-06 21:12Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.25
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000371.v3

1X2 · HOME · 51.0% · confidence 89 · reason: Market price update
החטאה
Fair price
1.96
Market price
2.15
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
6.9 percentage points
Generated
Tue 8 Sept · 12:07 UTC
Published
Tue 8 Sept · 12:07 UTC
Locked
Tue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 8 Sept · 12:07 UTCa59f6…47b6
a59f6613c96a1aa9a876e0bac24570843d809ccc785d40b217ca3d9d150247b6
{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtsmkw9i002ir688o2j5o7x2",
 "edge": 0.068867,
 "fairOdds": 1.96,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhra00n2lc04uym9l6bi",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T12:07:27.326Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.15,
 "modelProbability": 0.510212,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000371.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000371.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T12:07:27.326Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordTue 8 Sept · 17:02 UTC185a9…64dc
185a9238bb48737c52d117508522ad7e8165509280c7ace6e7c4a3a90a0764dc
{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtsmkw9i002ir688o2j5o7x2",
 "edge": 0.068867,
 "fairOdds": 1.96,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzhra00n2lc04uym9l6bi",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T12:07:27.326Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.15,
 "modelProbability": 0.510212,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000371.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000371.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T17:02:06.022Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 51.0% · DRAW 28.5% · AWAY 20.5%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-08 12:07Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-08 12:07Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H6_12
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.15
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.