MQ-000376
Liverpool v Ath Madrid · UEFA Champions League · Wed 9 Sept · 19:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.97
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Sat 5 Sept · 21:09 UTC
- Published
- Sat 5 Sept · 21:09 UTC
- Locked
- Wed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 5 Sept · 21:09 UTC8ac9d…d5de
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtovnsov0058r6un3gc84ufu",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.97,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkbzi1200nklc04vinmyeun",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-05T21:09:26.368Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.508275,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000376",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-05T21:09:26.368Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordWed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC91630…d23a
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtovnsov0058r6un3gc84ufu",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.97,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkbzi1200nklc04vinmyeun",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-05T21:09:26.368Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.508275,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000376",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-09T17:02:05.962Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 50.8% · DRAW 25.7% · AWAY 23.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-05 21:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-05 21:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000376
- Fair price
- 1.97
- Market price
- 1.70
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 5.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Mon 7 Sept · 19:06 UTC
- Published
- Mon 7 Sept · 19:06 UTC
- Locked
- Wed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 7 Sept · 19:06 UTC6416c…e953
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtrm3q1y046kjs049el4ntac",
"edge": -0.052611,
"fairOdds": 1.97,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkbzi1200nklc04vinmyeun",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-07T19:06:42.466Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.7,
"modelProbability": 0.508275,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000376.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000376",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-07T19:06:42.466Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordWed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC01835…fc58
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtrm3q1y046kjs049el4ntac",
"edge": -0.052611,
"fairOdds": 1.97,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkbzi1200nklc04vinmyeun",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-07T19:06:42.466Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.7,
"modelProbability": 0.508275,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000376.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000376",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-09T17:02:05.962Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 50.8% · DRAW 25.7% · AWAY 23.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-07 19:06Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-07 19:06Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- not recorded for this prediction
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.70
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000376.v2
- Fair price
- 2.12
- Market price
- 1.73
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 7.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
- Published
- Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
- Locked
- Wed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC11741…0e11
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmttvwyzb0016r6fajedbuvmf",
"edge": -0.077963,
"fairOdds": 2.12,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkbzi1200nklc04vinmyeun",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.73,
"modelProbability": 0.472412,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000376.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000376.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordWed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC4523c…4d47
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmttvwyzb0016r6fajedbuvmf",
"edge": -0.077963,
"fairOdds": 2.12,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkbzi1200nklc04vinmyeun",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.73,
"modelProbability": 0.472412,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000376.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000376.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-09T17:02:05.962Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 47.2% · DRAW 25.0% · AWAY 27.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-09 09:16Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-09 09:16Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H6_12
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.73
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.