PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000380

MQ-000380

Napoli v Arsenal · UEFA Champions League · Wed 9 Sept · 19:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 38.2% · confidence 71

בוטל

Fair price: 2.62
Market price: —
Probability gap: No market price to compare against.
Generated: Sat 5 Sept · 21:09 UTC
Published: Sat 5 Sept · 21:09 UTC
Locked: Wed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 5 Sept · 21:09 UTC1ee98…a64b

1ee98fa9b65ea7519ca9667d01e5785f61891d95066f19001455a9fa039ca64b

{
 "confidenceScore": 71,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtovo0zc007gr6un829h4xjv",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T21:09:26.368Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.382014,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000380",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T21:09:26.368Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordWed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC6eee0…9453

6eee001778ca7b770a90f9713da386bf76344be43c57fe8f13906c774bfd9453

{
 "confidenceScore": 71,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtovo0zc007gr6un829h4xjv",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T21:09:26.368Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.382014,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000380",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T17:02:05.962Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 38.2% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 33.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: global
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-05 21:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-05 21:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000380

1X2 · AWAY · 40.8% · confidence 89 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.45
Market price: —
Probability gap: No market price to compare against.
Generated: Sun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTC
Published: Sun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTC
Locked: Wed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTC5b684…ba04

5b684d7f890c4d3efd4b296f5ba51a1cff18cca23fcf89301f60fb5613abba04

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtpeva7o00car629y0kpgkls",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2.45,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.407826,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000380.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000380",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordWed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTCb7838…2f95

b78386abe0e5fee65d99c008b5142b5d8a3fc55f3e476bd048c4c07c311e2f95

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtpeva7o00car629y0kpgkls",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2.45,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.407826,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000380.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000380",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T17:02:05.962Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 29.1% · DRAW 30.1% · AWAY 40.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: global
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-06 06:06Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-06 06:06Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000380.v2

1X2 · AWAY · 47.8% · confidence 85 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.09
Market price: —
Probability gap: No market price to compare against.
Generated: Mon 7 Sept · 04:26 UTC
Published: Mon 7 Sept · 04:26 UTC
Locked: Wed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordMon 7 Sept · 04:26 UTCb5abd…d333

b5abd6850ef60403a215d8e2a9d5dafd7aec311e40d5bf65279a423df627d333

{
 "confidenceScore": 85,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtqqo9zr005bkt0418h05848",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-07T04:26:46.515Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000380.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000380.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-07T04:26:46.515Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordWed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTCe417d…36a4

e417dedf165bfd3d4eb5db20a2d9db994da13e3ad7105c73afc54ca1198636a4

{
 "confidenceScore": 85,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtqqo9zr005bkt0418h05848",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-07T04:26:46.515Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000380.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000380.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T17:02:05.962Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 25.7% · DRAW 26.5% · AWAY 47.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: global
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-07 04:26Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-07 04:26Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: not recorded for this prediction
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000380.v3

1X2 · AWAY · 47.8% · confidence 88 · reason: Market price update

בוטל

Fair price: 2.09
Market price: 1.80
Probability gap: 5.4 percentage points
Generated: Mon 7 Sept · 19:06 UTC
Published: Mon 7 Sept · 19:06 UTC
Locked: Wed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordMon 7 Sept · 19:06 UTCb41a4…4d35

b41a4fb6e551aa98b4ff8d529cf46189a9bc0acd2fced7e58c2a259202774d35

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtrm3r8a0486js040qrzvtt4",
 "edge": -0.054419,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-07T19:06:42.466Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.8,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000380.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000380.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-07T19:06:42.466Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordWed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC83aaf…b962

83aaf9cb3a3a55e402700a35fbbfdcb4614027c5a4d27b2368c99cffe2beb962

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtrm3r8a0486js040qrzvtt4",
 "edge": -0.054419,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-07T19:06:42.466Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.8,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000380.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000380.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T17:02:05.962Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 25.7% · DRAW 26.5% · AWAY 47.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: global
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-07 19:06Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-07 19:06Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: not recorded for this prediction
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.80
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000380.v4

1X2 · AWAY · 47.8% · confidence 88 · reason: Market price update

בוטל

Fair price: 2.09
Market price: 1.70
Probability gap: 7.9 percentage points
Generated: Tue 8 Sept · 03:06 UTC
Published: Tue 8 Sept · 03:06 UTC
Locked: Wed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordTue 8 Sept · 03:06 UTCfba6c…37f6

fba6c227b258d4b0d46db62964832381a29805418275b7345befb5dad9d437f6

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmts39q7h0024r6a75ainlr19",
 "edge": -0.079344,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T03:06:46.957Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.7,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000380.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000380.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T03:06:46.957Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordWed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC304a2…4cb6

304a214f883b1556af87fe47fd1e1821d1616bfab9e6e4b30b7d201da6054cb6

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmts39q7h0024r6a75ainlr19",
 "edge": -0.079344,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T03:06:46.957Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.7,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000380.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000380.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T17:02:05.962Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 25.7% · DRAW 26.5% · AWAY 47.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: global
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-08 03:06Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-08 03:06Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.70
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000380.v5

1X2 · AWAY · 52.9% · confidence 89 · reason: Model refresh

פגיעה

Fair price: 1.89
Market price: 1.62
Probability gap: 5.6 percentage points
Generated: Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
Published: Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
Locked: Wed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC0b967…38a6

0b967d96ac13923ed5dc3d39fd9246ab2f664541ca971327481bb5f96de438a6

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmttvxca50038r6fas72b8szp",
 "edge": -0.05626,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.62,
 "modelProbability": 0.528559,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000380.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000380.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordWed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC32e57…5d88

32e57bef6e37954b61fbdb216088ec06d1280dd1a0e0edeb8b35a0fa13ea5d88

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmttvxca50038r6fas72b8szp",
 "edge": -0.05626,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.62,
 "modelProbability": 0.528559,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000380.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000380.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T17:02:05.962Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 20.4% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 52.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: global
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-09 09:16Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-09 09:16Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H6_12
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.62
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.