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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000381

MQ-000381

Napoli v Arsenal · UEFA Champions League · Wed 9 Sept · 19:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

OU25 · UNDER · 62.0% · confidence 71
בוטל
Fair price
1.61
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sat 5 Sept · 21:09 UTC
Published
Sat 5 Sept · 21:09 UTC
Locked
Wed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 5 Sept · 21:09 UTC0c095…2280
0c095723e2dd91b0c452782263c993fd3a66c2473b64081bc6bda58cc7152280
{
 "confidenceScore": 71,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtovo0zc007gr6un829h4xjv",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.61,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T21:09:26.368Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.619504,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000381",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T21:09:26.368Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}
Lock recordWed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTCb30f0…6e47
b30f0683d65cb98d76ab77f113f73f6e762033ce22260e248fe08d0e4a6d6e47
{
 "confidenceScore": 71,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtovo0zc007gr6un829h4xjv",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.61,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T21:09:26.368Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.619504,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000381",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T17:02:05.962Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 38.0% · UNDER 62.0%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-05 21:09Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-05 21:09Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000381

OU25 · UNDER · 58.5% · confidence 89 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.71
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTC
Published
Sun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTC
Locked
Wed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTC2df18…b35e
2df18ee9b39773ec4354a078ff97663856395c55fe932fd9f36b6aebf59db35e
{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtpeva7o00car629y0kpgkls",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.71,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.58542,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000381.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000381",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}
Lock recordWed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC06e88…022e
06e8856c695b1345d0462d1d9e22a27e002cf5b2981495ae3ef8e0f97491022e
{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtpeva7o00car629y0kpgkls",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.71,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.58542,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000381.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000381",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T17:02:05.962Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 41.5% · UNDER 58.5%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-06 06:06Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-06 06:06Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000381.v2

OU25 · UNDER · 57.3% · confidence 85 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.75
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Mon 7 Sept · 04:26 UTC
Published
Mon 7 Sept · 04:26 UTC
Locked
Wed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 7 Sept · 04:26 UTC190b4…3135
190b46671d61f6aaffb442fa5a6cb969d1fdc195470dcccd2cd003704dd43135
{
 "confidenceScore": 85,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtqqo9zr005bkt0418h05848",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.75,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-07T04:26:46.515Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.57281,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000381.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000381.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-07T04:26:46.515Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}
Lock recordWed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTCf614c…bca2
f614c0c957e25d7256e5ef092e9d8299d7e9fa61c99dee4b790e7ab77b57bca2
{
 "confidenceScore": 85,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtqqo9zr005bkt0418h05848",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.75,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-07T04:26:46.515Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.57281,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000381.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000381.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T17:02:05.962Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 42.7% · UNDER 57.3%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-07 04:26Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-07 04:26Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
not recorded for this prediction
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000381.v3

OU25 · UNDER · 57.1% · confidence 88 · reason: Market price update
בוטל
Fair price
1.75
Market price
1.91
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
7.1 percentage points
Generated
Mon 7 Sept · 19:06 UTC
Published
Mon 7 Sept · 19:06 UTC
Locked
Wed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 7 Sept · 19:06 UTCcde69…2a00
cde69bc25854ff8298a708318e04ea96e517e8cda062282921af1986c6542a00
{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtrm3r8a0486js040qrzvtt4",
 "edge": 0.070518,
 "fairOdds": 1.75,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-07T19:06:42.466Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.91,
 "modelProbability": 0.570518,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000381.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000381.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-07T19:06:42.466Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}
Lock recordWed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTCf423d…999b
f423d5d138c5d565cfa8e4098e8e5302b02284b3e24dc131fadeeddaad21999b
{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtrm3r8a0486js040qrzvtt4",
 "edge": 0.070518,
 "fairOdds": 1.75,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-07T19:06:42.466Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.91,
 "modelProbability": 0.570518,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000381.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000381.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T17:02:05.962Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 42.9% · UNDER 57.1%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-07 19:06Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-07 19:06Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
not recorded for this prediction
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.91
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000381.v4

OU25 · OVER · 58.6% · confidence 89 · reason: Model refresh
החטאה
Fair price
1.71
Market price
1.91
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
8.6 percentage points
Generated
Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
Published
Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
Locked
Wed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTCe2caa…da64
e2caa7aec75b5fc81e517c2f4d4ccb08ab54407d4ebae1e8440f0a15a4f8da64
{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmttvxca50038r6fas72b8szp",
 "edge": 0.086055,
 "fairOdds": 1.71,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.91,
 "modelProbability": 0.586055,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000381.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000381.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}
Lock recordWed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC81454…49e9
81454bdeb0cf2c639190db726767f9664bfa0de312784e245f6b0cddb17949e9
{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmttvxca50038r6fas72b8szp",
 "edge": 0.086055,
 "fairOdds": 1.71,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.91,
 "modelProbability": 0.586055,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000381.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000381.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T17:02:05.962Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
OVER 58.6% · UNDER 41.4%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-09 09:16Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-09 09:16Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H6_12
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.91
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.