PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000382
MQ-000382
Napoli v Arsenal · UEFA Champions League · Wed 9 Sept · 19:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
BTTS · NO · 55.8% · confidence 71
- Fair price
- 1.79
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Sat 5 Sept · 21:09 UTC
- Published
- Sat 5 Sept · 21:09 UTC
- Locked
- Wed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 5 Sept · 21:09 UTCdf262…ae7f
df26272c2c5c4f2cf5f3dd700a81145be8af76e0f148abbe722cad5ff3e6ae7f
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtovo0zc007gr6un829h4xjv",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.79,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-05T21:09:26.368Z",
"market": "BTTS",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.558123,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000382",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-05T21:09:26.368Z",
"selection": "NO"
}Lock recordWed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC01b15…71a7
01b1567b1cdb08d570239d43d1480643e52bca5d7dac387a1d434689c11171a7
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtovo0zc007gr6un829h4xjv",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.79,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-05T21:09:26.368Z",
"market": "BTTS",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.558123,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000382",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-09T17:02:05.962Z",
"selection": "NO"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- YES 44.2% · NO 55.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-05 21:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-05 21:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000382
BTTS · NO · 51.6% · confidence 89 · reason: Model refresh
- Fair price
- 1.94
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Sun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTC
- Published
- Sun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTC
- Locked
- Wed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 06:06 UTC9521e…582f
9521e6baf0552d061947d1cfc29acbd14cd020e872efb083c6eadfa258a6582f
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtpeva7o00car629y0kpgkls",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.94,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
"market": "BTTS",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.515825,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000382.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000382",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
"selection": "NO"
}Lock recordWed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTCe69d1…f1d7
e69d16e788609ada44dc6438b1ce7e7fb5ca973ac9abb4fccaa7b6b8a846f1d7
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtpeva7o00car629y0kpgkls",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.94,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-06T06:06:49.123Z",
"market": "BTTS",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.515825,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000382.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000382",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-09T17:02:05.962Z",
"selection": "NO"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- YES 48.4% · NO 51.6%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-06 06:06Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-06 06:06Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000382.v2
BTTS · NO · 52.6% · confidence 85 · reason: Model refresh
- Fair price
- 1.90
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Mon 7 Sept · 04:26 UTC
- Published
- Mon 7 Sept · 04:26 UTC
- Locked
- Wed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 7 Sept · 04:26 UTC2e62d…df74
2e62d389555b44d215682df65d9a092f17b1224716309816a78cc22acbcedf74
{
"confidenceScore": 85,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtqqo9zr005bkt0418h05848",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.9,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-07T04:26:46.515Z",
"market": "BTTS",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.525831,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000382.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000382.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-07T04:26:46.515Z",
"selection": "NO"
}Lock recordWed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTCe2478…bb8c
e2478ad34d84ad1736edbb2949d6b42d389dd18db285b67ef4f47a43d220bb8c
{
"confidenceScore": 85,
"dataQualityScore": 65,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtqqo9zr005bkt0418h05848",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.9,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-07T04:26:46.515Z",
"market": "BTTS",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.525831,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000382.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000382.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-09T17:02:05.962Z",
"selection": "NO"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- YES 47.4% · NO 52.6%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-07 04:26Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-07 04:26Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- not recorded for this prediction
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 4 · previous MQ-000382.v3
BTTS · YES · 60.6% · confidence 89 · reason: Model refresh
- Fair price
- 1.65
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
- Published
- Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
- Locked
- Wed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTCcfbc3…c39c
cfbc313b271259e775ce2879ba47065b437505197af6fcbd432cc6c2545cc39c
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmttvxca50038r6fas72b8szp",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.65,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"market": "BTTS",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.606441,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000382.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000382.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"selection": "YES"
}Lock recordWed 9 Sept · 17:02 UTC3ed0e…a290
3ed0e33424075656224ef24bb04ecbcf6711e566f04affaa0194d9a6ee9ba290
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmttvxca50038r6fas72b8szp",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.65,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkbzi7k00nwlc048p7d8jph",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"market": "BTTS",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.606441,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000382.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000382.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-09T17:02:05.962Z",
"selection": "YES"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- YES 60.6% · NO 39.4%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-09 09:16Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-09 09:16Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H6_12
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.