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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000384

MQ-000384

Fenerbahçe SK v Roma · UEFA Champions League · Thu 10 Sept · 16:45 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · AWAY · 54.6% · confidence 65
בוטל
Fair price
1.83
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sun 6 Sept · 18:06 UTC
Published
Sun 6 Sept · 18:06 UTC
Locked
Thu 10 Sept · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 18:06 UTC4cd27…5025
4cd27246d3a4bfd239aceb72c74f8977a66d5555887ce586481c3f75db055025
{
 "confidenceScore": 65,
 "dataQualityScore": 5,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtq4km8m0056r69puy6pkh1b",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.83,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc5io004mr6kgxsea11ix",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T18:06:58.210Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.545632,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000384",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-06T18:06:58.210Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}
Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 16:32 UTC45c6b…a91d
45c6bc5724215f46c04f531383ebb4280dfabcc9802ca577574359af04f2a91d
{
 "confidenceScore": 65,
 "dataQualityScore": 5,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtq4km8m0056r69puy6pkh1b",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.83,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc5io004mr6kgxsea11ix",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T18:06:58.210Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.545632,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000384",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T16:32:04.958Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 19.3% · DRAW 26.1% · AWAY 54.6%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-06 18:06Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-06 18:06Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000384

1X2 · AWAY · 54.6% · confidence 69 · reason: Market price update
בוטל
Fair price
1.83
Market price
2.15
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
10.4 percentage points
Generated
Tue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTC
Published
Tue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTC
Locked
Thu 10 Sept · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 8 Sept · 18:06 UTC99561…7377
99561571dd2160b0804b55ffef11bcc0a995ff31ff98e420750e835891837377
{
 "confidenceScore": 69,
 "dataQualityScore": 20,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtszfea1002ar6sz80bk1cl5",
 "edge": 0.104287,
 "fairOdds": 1.83,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc5io004mr6kgxsea11ix",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.15,
 "modelProbability": 0.545632,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000384.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000384",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}
Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 16:32 UTC2b22a…11b3
2b22ad16986067684576a533099ccedb3edf4e381a997c3fdee074fd173a11b3
{
 "confidenceScore": 69,
 "dataQualityScore": 20,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtszfea1002ar6sz80bk1cl5",
 "edge": 0.104287,
 "fairOdds": 1.83,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc5io004mr6kgxsea11ix",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-08T18:06:56.691Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.15,
 "modelProbability": 0.545632,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000384.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000384",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T16:32:04.958Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 19.3% · DRAW 26.1% · AWAY 54.6%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-08 18:06Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-08 18:06Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.15
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000384.v2

1X2 · AWAY · 63.6% · confidence 69 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.57
Market price
2.15
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
19.4 percentage points
Generated
Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
Published
Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
Locked
Thu 10 Sept · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTCf1bc7…a2b2
f1bc73373035c9b25d22e0736bc9c4e25df30b23e146d1d411ba459e6daea2b2
{
 "confidenceScore": 69,
 "dataQualityScore": 20,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmttvxq0c005gr6fadbacilcr",
 "edge": 0.194339,
 "fairOdds": 1.57,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc5io004mr6kgxsea11ix",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.15,
 "modelProbability": 0.635684,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000384.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000384.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}
Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 16:32 UTC7d539…d1e2
7d539c0c8b63f6f3f7fb04da9ef1ccb2c0872a362e74901eafc617c505cbd1e2
{
 "confidenceScore": 69,
 "dataQualityScore": 20,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmttvxq0c005gr6fadbacilcr",
 "edge": 0.194339,
 "fairOdds": 1.57,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc5io004mr6kgxsea11ix",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.15,
 "modelProbability": 0.635684,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000384.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000384.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T16:32:04.958Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 16.1% · DRAW 20.3% · AWAY 63.6%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-09 09:16Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-09 09:16Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.15
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000384.v3

1X2 · AWAY · 53.6% · confidence 69 · reason: Model refresh
החטאה
Fair price
1.87
Market price
2.10
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
8.6 percentage points
Generated
Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
Published
Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
Locked
Thu 10 Sept · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC19d92…d0dd
19d923c9450104dc0b527bb7c45da9fe01b408687f5ddc20c6b6c605b094d0dd
{
 "confidenceScore": 69,
 "dataQualityScore": 30,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4mcau0002r63kv8muvtwc",
 "edge": 0.085638,
 "fairOdds": 1.87,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc5io004mr6kgxsea11ix",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.1,
 "modelProbability": 0.53615,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000384.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000384.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}
Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 16:32 UTC491f6…bf56
491f6b43300801abc15b13eee8fcff3d84ff264759177fe0397ca3cf172ebf56
{
 "confidenceScore": 69,
 "dataQualityScore": 30,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4mcau0002r63kv8muvtwc",
 "edge": 0.085638,
 "fairOdds": 1.87,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc5io004mr6kgxsea11ix",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.1,
 "modelProbability": 0.53615,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000384.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000384.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T16:32:04.958Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 20.7% · DRAW 25.6% · AWAY 53.6%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-10 06:08Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-10 06:08Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H6_12
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.10
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.