MQ-000385
PSV v FK Shakhtar Donetsk · UEFA Champions League · Thu 10 Sept · 16:45 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.36
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Sun 6 Sept · 18:06 UTC
- Published
- Sun 6 Sept · 18:06 UTC
- Locked
- Thu 10 Sept · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 18:06 UTC5127f…f54d
{
"confidenceScore": 65,
"dataQualityScore": 5,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtq4kpf8005qr69px60yfs5p",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 2.36,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkzc684004sr6kgoqmu3dcr",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-06T18:06:58.210Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.423896,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000385",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-06T18:06:58.210Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 16:32 UTCced14…d829
{
"confidenceScore": 65,
"dataQualityScore": 5,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtq4kpf8005qr69px60yfs5p",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 2.36,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkzc684004sr6kgoqmu3dcr",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-06T18:06:58.210Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.423896,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000385",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-10T16:32:04.958Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 42.4% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 29.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-06 18:06Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-06 18:06Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000385
- Fair price
- 2.51
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
- Published
- Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
- Locked
- Thu 10 Sept · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTCada54…426d
{
"confidenceScore": 48,
"dataQualityScore": 5,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmttvxtqi0060r6fao0gslpfq",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 2.51,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkzc684004sr6kgoqmu3dcr",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.397893,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000385.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000385",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 16:32 UTC44e23…2c03
{
"confidenceScore": 48,
"dataQualityScore": 5,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmttvxtqi0060r6fao0gslpfq",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 2.51,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkzc684004sr6kgoqmu3dcr",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.397893,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000385.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000385",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-10T16:32:04.958Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-09 09:16Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-09 09:16Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000385.v2
- Fair price
- 1.89
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
- Published
- Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
- Locked
- Thu 10 Sept · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC11fa2…ef27
{
"confidenceScore": 65,
"dataQualityScore": 5,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4mfw7000mr63kbj2anq5b",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.89,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkzc684004sr6kgoqmu3dcr",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.529268,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000385.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000385.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 16:32 UTC4ea0d…e6fd
{
"confidenceScore": 65,
"dataQualityScore": 5,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4mfw7000mr63kbj2anq5b",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.89,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkzc684004sr6kgoqmu3dcr",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.529268,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000385.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000385.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-10T16:32:04.958Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 52.9% · DRAW 26.8% · AWAY 20.3%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-10 06:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-10 06:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H6_12
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.