PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000387
MQ-000387
Man United v Sabah FK · UEFA Champions League · Thu 10 Sept · 19:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
1X2 · HOME · 68.2% · confidence 64
- Fair price
- 1.47
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Sun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTC
- Published
- Sun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTC
- Locked
- Thu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTC4fa15…2f39
4fa15a4b17980e9b515bca572c35a7d574e7040b18666bedf60ba11bd2842f39
{
"confidenceScore": 64,
"dataQualityScore": 5,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtqb82py007wr694al8k2nf2",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.47,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkzc79p0054r6kg8lh79o05",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.68192,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000387",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTCbedf4…b42e
bedf4876a0c64c70129e10b9f440374d1fe0f80b23a14ae15b05823bcb72b42e
{
"confidenceScore": 64,
"dataQualityScore": 5,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtqb82py007wr694al8k2nf2",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.47,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkzc79p0054r6kg8lh79o05",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.68192,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000387",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-10T17:02:02.651Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 68.2% · DRAW 21.3% · AWAY 10.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-06 21:12Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-06 21:12Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000387
1X2 · HOME · 67.0% · confidence 64 · reason: Model refresh
- Fair price
- 1.49
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Mon 7 Sept · 04:26 UTC
- Published
- Mon 7 Sept · 04:26 UTC
- Locked
- Thu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordMon 7 Sept · 04:26 UTCfe1d7…3f79
fe1d7d25ec373efd218d4a91782b09b5a4107b844d3d0976224a3c14bd473f79
{
"confidenceScore": 64,
"dataQualityScore": 5,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtqqocav007tkt044n0l6rms",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.49,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkzc79p0054r6kg8lh79o05",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-07T04:26:46.515Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.669812,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000387.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000387",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-07T04:26:46.515Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTCfc7a0…6564
fc7a0e1d791ec66f8734afba36df0cee45b92adcd3ddd27ac35292c7e0f36564
{
"confidenceScore": 64,
"dataQualityScore": 5,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtqqocav007tkt044n0l6rms",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.49,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkzc79p0054r6kg8lh79o05",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-07T04:26:46.515Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.669812,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000387.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000387",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-10T17:02:02.651Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 67.0% · DRAW 20.9% · AWAY 12.1%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-07 04:26Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-07 04:26Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- not recorded for this prediction
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000387.v2
1X2 · HOME · 61.2% · confidence 66 · reason: Model refresh
- Fair price
- 1.64
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
- Published
- Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
- Locked
- Thu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC5affa…7eaf
5affa960979da36736025bf218ba0eb9b70e02e399f9599693312ba943257eaf
{
"confidenceScore": 66,
"dataQualityScore": 5,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmttvy0gw006yr6fagqmtl4k4",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.64,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkzc79p0054r6kg8lh79o05",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.611569,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000387.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000387.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC38315…82c0
38315402b890267b27f7e9eea8ac039d9ff4a77261713ec683a54606a68982c0
{
"confidenceScore": 66,
"dataQualityScore": 5,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmttvy0gw006yr6fagqmtl4k4",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.64,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkzc79p0054r6kg8lh79o05",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.611569,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000387.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000387.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-10T17:02:02.651Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 61.2% · DRAW 21.7% · AWAY 17.2%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-09 09:16Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-09 09:16Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 4 · previous MQ-000387.v3
1X2 · HOME · 73.4% · confidence 66 · reason: Model refresh
- Fair price
- 1.36
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
- Published
- Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
- Locked
- Thu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTCd71ef…6941
d71ef37a5f4281a8259c75dc926574ad047def2d276d6020c16e37bb9ae86941
{
"confidenceScore": 66,
"dataQualityScore": 5,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4mm3z001kr63ku7bbn08y",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.36,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkzc79p0054r6kg8lh79o05",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.733925,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000387.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000387.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTCdba86…c587
dba86cfa3f6a5e3fec67593f1a37c34f16da88df1adf5ce2a091749db658c587
{
"confidenceScore": 66,
"dataQualityScore": 5,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4mm3z001kr63ku7bbn08y",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.36,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtkzc79p0054r6kg8lh79o05",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.733925,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000387.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000387.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-10T17:02:02.651Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 73.4% · DRAW 17.2% · AWAY 9.4%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-10 06:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-10 06:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H12_24
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
What this proves
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.