PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000388

MQ-000388

Como v RB Leipzig · UEFA Champions League · Thu 10 Sept · 19:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 58.3% · confidence 90

בוטל

Fair price: 1.71
Market price: —
Probability gap: No market price to compare against.
Generated: Sun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTC
Published: Sun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTC
Locked: Thu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 6 Sept · 21:12 UTC3d519…2690

3d519be5156e7e2b07e6bd93703e556512a386929972d4869d2020c92e312690

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtqb857e008gr694srnzb772",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.71,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc7s8005ar6kgn1npxd9w",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.583219,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000388",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTCe3917…1731

e39171568f46457d9d54ff9f226c9dabe8994e49f2d20d33a2f9f878c19b1731

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtqb857e008gr694srnzb772",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.71,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc7s8005ar6kgn1npxd9w",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-06T21:12:58.810Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.583219,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000388",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T17:02:02.651Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 58.3% · DRAW 25.1% · AWAY 16.6%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: global
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-06 21:12Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-06 21:12Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000388

1X2 · HOME · 57.2% · confidence 89 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.75
Market price: —
Probability gap: No market price to compare against.
Generated: Mon 7 Sept · 04:26 UTC
Published: Mon 7 Sept · 04:26 UTC
Locked: Thu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordMon 7 Sept · 04:26 UTC664ff…4008

664ffb2a3930ae55fb1b6fdcac992eecb18c46d36f9084dcdef25b3ac0404008

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtqqoct0008dkt04doeq0c8d",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.75,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc7s8005ar6kgn1npxd9w",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-07T04:26:46.515Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.571863,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000388.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000388",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-07T04:26:46.515Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC3a9bb…cdd1

3a9bb3e0e40be138abc3ff63e3a93eccac0e7f5d5a3259c64e5486d7598dcdd1

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtqqoct0008dkt04doeq0c8d",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.75,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc7s8005ar6kgn1npxd9w",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-07T04:26:46.515Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.571863,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000388.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000388",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T17:02:02.651Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 57.2% · DRAW 26.2% · AWAY 16.6%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: global
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-07 04:26Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-07 04:26Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: not recorded for this prediction
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000388.v2

1X2 · HOME · 58.7% · confidence 89 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.70
Market price: —
Probability gap: No market price to compare against.
Generated: Mon 7 Sept · 19:06 UTC
Published: Mon 7 Sept · 19:06 UTC
Locked: Thu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordMon 7 Sept · 19:06 UTC7ce82…a34f

7ce82fc05ab859178d799fff0eb8da4e3f362697e77f0551d95a91811efba34f

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtrm3tr604aajs04jlsy9r44",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.7,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc7s8005ar6kgn1npxd9w",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-07T19:06:42.466Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.587022,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000388.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000388.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-07T19:06:42.466Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC39910…fefc

399104a9944393444a606d20a41455e831e91adc987f0fb321184e95779efefc

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 65,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtrm3tr604aajs04jlsy9r44",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.7,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc7s8005ar6kgn1npxd9w",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-07T19:06:42.466Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.587022,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000388.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000388.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T17:02:02.651Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 58.7% · DRAW 24.8% · AWAY 16.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: global
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-07 19:06Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-07 19:06Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: not recorded for this prediction
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000388.v3

1X2 · HOME · 56.4% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.77
Market price: 1.83
Probability gap: 4.5 percentage points
Generated: Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
Published: Wed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTC
Locked: Thu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 9 Sept · 09:16 UTCf2bf1…c9b1

f2bf1e0f5daec9587496ef9ad6401e389821f5a3318e05ab5410ec6fd735c9b1

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmttvy4dr007ir6faxfhbvyij",
 "edge": 0.044676,
 "fairOdds": 1.77,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc7s8005ar6kgn1npxd9w",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.83,
 "modelProbability": 0.56369,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000388.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000388.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC119db…db96

119db42312db0ccc34813cf9a34d99ce35d375879515c5efd05a94da4ccbdb96

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmttvy4dr007ir6faxfhbvyij",
 "edge": 0.044676,
 "fairOdds": 1.77,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc7s8005ar6kgn1npxd9w",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T09:16:44.683Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.83,
 "modelProbability": 0.56369,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000388.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000388.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T17:02:02.651Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 56.4% · DRAW 24.0% · AWAY 19.6%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: global
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-09 09:16Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-09 09:16Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.83
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000388.v4

1X2 · HOME · 70.8% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.41
Market price: 1.75
Probability gap: 16.8 percentage points
Generated: Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
Published: Thu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTC
Locked: Thu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 06:08 UTCcf923…5623

cf923bcea42b3d64493bc15ad46a9cd962d27b2b33722236bf54e755f5845623

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4mpuq0024r63ke2gip1nu",
 "edge": 0.168323,
 "fairOdds": 1.41,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc7s8005ar6kgn1npxd9w",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.75,
 "modelProbability": 0.707797,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000388.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000388.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC60100…5059

601005585fb8a7e9c50dadfff459fd5102090ffdc784e5ff8fdb9b163cfb5059

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtv4mpuq0024r63ke2gip1nu",
 "edge": 0.168323,
 "fairOdds": 1.41,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc7s8005ar6kgn1npxd9w",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:08:23.422Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.75,
 "modelProbability": 0.707797,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000388.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000388.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T17:02:02.651Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 70.8% · DRAW 19.9% · AWAY 9.4%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: global
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-10 06:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-10 06:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H12_24
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.75
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000388.v5

1X2 · HOME · 69.1% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

פגיעה

Fair price: 1.45
Market price: 1.75
Probability gap: 15.1 percentage points
Generated: Thu 10 Sept · 09:19 UTC
Published: Thu 10 Sept · 09:19 UTC
Locked: Thu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 10 Sept · 09:19 UTC58609…0262

5860943d208b3d10aaa1c6ae1a3b2ad373fa4b05a0785e20f099075c44f80262

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvbh4pt000qr6mvfdkxs7uh",
 "edge": 0.151253,
 "fairOdds": 1.45,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc7s8005ar6kgn1npxd9w",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T09:19:55.282Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.75,
 "modelProbability": 0.690727,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000388.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000388.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T09:19:55.282Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordThu 10 Sept · 17:02 UTCbddfc…3575

bddfce762504aa1392129013f1ce27947b9267814ba0fce8f4a725c87a2e3575

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmtvbh4pt000qr6mvfdkxs7uh",
 "edge": 0.151253,
 "fairOdds": 1.45,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtkzc7s8005ar6kgn1npxd9w",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T09:19:55.282Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.75,
 "modelProbability": 0.690727,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000388.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000388.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-10T17:02:02.651Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 69.1% · DRAW 20.3% · AWAY 10.6%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: global
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-10 09:19Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-10 09:19Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H6_12
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.75
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.